Opposition party representatives have voiced concerns that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) may resort to any means possible, including igniting a civil war, to postpone the upcoming election in November and remain in power if it sees another election defeat on the horizon. In the general election of June 7, no party managed to win the minimum number of seats necessary to establish a single-party government. The results of the election came as a huge disappointment to the AK Party, which ruled Turkey as a single-party government for three terms since 2002, as well as to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who campaigned for his former party in the run-up to the elections although he is constitutionally required to remain impartial. Following the election, President Erdogan gave AK Party leader Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu the mandate to form a coalition government, on July 9, as the AK Party had emerged with the most number of seats in Parliament, but Davutoglu failed to establish a coalition government. Although Erdogan was expected to give a new mandate to the Republican People's Party (CHP) as the second-largest party in Parliament, he did not. This was the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic the mandate to establish a new government was given only once. Following a general election in 1995, even the fourth-biggest party in Parliament was given the mandate to form a new government by the president at the time. The 45-day deadline during which a coalition government must be established before the country has to go to a snap election expired on Aug. 23. As a result, Turkey will hold a snap vote on Nov. 1. Opposition parties are now concerned that the AK Party may try to ignite a civil war to postpone the election for a year if it feels the election will not bring it the result it wants. According to Article 78 of the Constitution, elections can only be postponed in the event of a war. "If the holding of new elections is found impossible because of war, the Turkish Grand National Assembly may decide to defer elections for a year. If the grounds for deferment do not disappear this measure may be repeated under the procedure for deferment," the article says. Turkey has been experiencing a low-intensity war with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) since last month when the PKK resorted to acts of terrorism following a two-and-a-half-year-long cease-fire that marked the end of a settlement process launched in late 2012 by the AK Party government with the PKK in a bid to resolve the country's long-standing terrorism problem. Opposition parties fear the AK Party may exacerbate the war with the PKK in order to postpone the election. Former CHP deputy Erdal Aksunger, who now serves as chief adviser for CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, told Sunday's Zaman the AK Party from the very beginning wanted a snap vote because it was unsatisfied with the result of the June 7 general election. "When they realize they will lose [the upcoming election], they will resort to all means possible, including igniting a war, to ensure that the election is postponed," Aksunger said. The CHP official said the AK Party and Erdogan believe the AK Party has to remain in power or they will lose all their privileges if the party fails to become the ruling party again. "I don't think they will show a democratic maturity when they understand they will not be able to win the election again. All current developments show that the party is on a downward trend. They tried to push the [Peoples' Democratic Party] HDP down below the election threshold but on the contrary, votes for the HDP are increasing," he said. The HDP overcoming the 10 percent election threshold came as a shock to the AK Party because it caused the AK Party to fail to win the necessary 276 seats to continue its single-party rule for another term. "Turkey is going through a very critical period. Terrorist organizations in neighboring countries that are having civil wars are threatening our country. [PKK] terrorists who yesterday used to attack military outposts in mountainous areas are today attacking police stations in city centers with rocket-propelled grenades. Would the AKP make use of this situation to postpone the election it is likely to lose? To be frank, we cannot say it will not because it will resort to any means to be able to remain in power. The possibility of a war is a great risk. Such a development will greatly harm the country and the nation and will cause irreparable damage," Aksünger said in further remarks. There are claims that the AK Party government and Erdogan announced the end of the settlement process with the PKK in a bid to steal nationalist votes. HDP party spokesperson Ayhan Bilgen said the AK Party failed to respect the nation's will that emerged from the ballot box on June 7. The party's attitude, which he said runs contrary to democratic principles, can only be explained by its fears of being called to account for its wrongful actions. "We are faced with a party that is obliged to stay in power out of fears of being on trial," he said. The AK Party, which was at the time chaired by Erdogan, was shaken by a corruption scandal that went public in December of 2013 and implicated Erdogan's inner circle. Erdogan labeled the graft probe a coup attempt against his government and replaced the police officers and prosecutors who took part in the probe. The charges against the suspects were eventually dropped without them standing on trial. Bilgen also said if the AK Party feels it will face an unsatisfactory result in the Nov. 1 election, it could drag Turkey to a climate of chaos or escalate tension with neighboring countries. He warned that the emergence of such a de facto situation will go down in the country's history as a "coup." Commenting on Article 78, journalist Yavuz Baydar said it is a little ambiguous and hence open to interpretation. "The possibility of a cross-border war following the İncirlik agreement between Turkey and the US to target the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant [ISIS] is gradually increasing. On the other side, the Turkish Armed Forces' [TSK] cross-border operations in Iraq and the hot conflicts in the country also increase this prospects," he said. Professor of constitutional law Dr. İbrahim Kaboglu said at a time of increased violence in the country, the AK Party has concentrated its efforts on early election maneuvers rather than establishing a government. "If a decision for a snap vote was made despite the climate of low-intensity war in the country, the interim cabinet needs to maintain election security and hold the election. It should focus on maintaining societal peace. From now on, no excuse can be accepted for postponing the election. Domestic security should immediately be maintained and the election should be held," Kabaoglu told Sunday's Zaman.
