In every election over the 11 years, Erdogan and his party came out triumphant with impressive results. But this local election poses a serious challenge to the powerful Turkish premier and serve as a litmus test for the parliamentary and presidential polls. Millions of Turks have flocked to the polls across the country to cast their votes in the municipal elections. Another two elections, the presidential and parliamentary, are to follow over the next 15 months. These local elections are of an unusual importance for Turkey and specifically for the ruling Justice and development Party, known as AKP. A corruption probe struck the AKP-led government on Dec 17 of last year that implicated several government ministers, who ended up resigning or dismissed, as well as high profile businessmen with close ties to the government. Following the government's crackdown on judges, prosecutors and police chiefs who were behind the probe, a series of alleged recordings revealing alleged corruption and misconduct of government officials, including the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have been uploaded online. Erdogan has accused his rival Islamist in self-imposed exile Fethullah Gulen and his followers of orchestrating the corruption investigation and leaking the alleged recordings, in order to topple him and his government. Thus Erdogan declared the local election a vote of confidence for him and his party and called his struggle with Gulen "the country's second war of independence"; the first being the one that the founder of the Turkish republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk led and won against the Allies some 90 years ago. Most surveys and polling results indicate that Turkey's ruling party will come out a winner with 35-45 percent national average. The AKP won 39% of national average in the previous local elections in 2009, winning both Ankara and Istanbul. Erdogan said that any win of more than 40 percent of the vote would mean that his party's popularity remains intact despite corruption allegations. However, this time around many speculate that the oldest political party in Turkey and the main opposition Republican People's Party, known as CHP, might be able to make a surprise in Istanbul or Ankara or both. Polls show that CHP's Ankara mayoral candidate Mensur Yavas is threating to end the era of AKP incumbent mayor, Melih Gokcek, who has served two decades in office. A recent poll by the leading Konsensus polling company shows that Yavas is leading the polls with 44.4 percent of the vote followed by 42.6 percent for AKP's Gokcek. Istanbul's incumbent AKP mayor, Kadir Topbas , who has been in his post for a decade, is closely followed by the CHP mayoral candidate, Mustafa Sarigul. However, polls show that AKP's mayor maintains support and it is unlikely that AKP would lose Istanbul. Istanbul is highly significant to the AKP. It is the city from which Prime Minister Erdogan launched his political career and served as Istanbul mayor under former Necemtten Erbakan's Welfare Party. As these elections represent a crucial point in Turkey's future political landscape, several political parties and election watchdogs are raising growing concerns over a possible election fraud. A report by the daily Taraf claimed that executives from the ruling party asked the Election board of Istanbul for names of the ballot box monitors who will be on duty during the March 30 local elections. It alleges that AKP officials managed to obtain the list of the monitors, who would be schools teachers and principles, through the Istanbul National Education Directorate. Previous elections were largely hailed as free and fair due to the fact that they were supervised and monitored by the judiciary. However, this time around concerns over fraud in election stem from the fact that judiciary is now being partially controlled by the government due to a recent judicial law and a large-scale shakeup. Following the corruption investigation, the AKP proposed a law that would give the Justice Minister the ultimate say in appointing judges and prosecutors. Amid concerns over fraud, the CHP announced that it would deploy half a million observers at all polling centers across Turkey. Civil organizations have also vowed to mobilize thousands of volunteers at ballot boxes in Istanbul. Erdogan also invited the European Union and other international teams, to monitor the polls for transparency and credibility. The sure thing is this election poses the biggest challenge to Erodgan. And despite the corruption allegations and dictatorship-style policies like blocking Twitter and YouTube, many non-affiliated voters are the deciding factor in the elections. They decide the ruling party and its candidates according to the economic performance and the quality of social services provided.
