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Putin in Cairo... Enlightened Pragmatism
Published in Albawaba on 05 - 02 - 2015

Russian President Vladimir Putin's expected visit to Cairo poses a pragmatic political question of the first degree: Who is in need of whom at the present time? In other words, is Cairo in need of Moscow, or is Moscow more in need of Cairo; could it be that they are sharing a realistic political relationship that encompasses them both?
The answer requires an impartial, true and relevant analysis and comparison to be made. To start with, Cairo has been sensing that a major international conspiracy is being woven not only around Egypt, but also round the whole of the Middle East. It actually began with the so-called Arab Spring. Still Cairo cannot comfortably swallow the fact that the U.S. has so easily abandoned a strong ally like ex-President Hosni Mubarak, who was very supportive of Washington for thirty years. His help was invaluable beyond measure, be that in the military or political fields.
It may be necessary for Cairo to look for an objective replacement ally, internationally. Such an ally would augment Egypt's political weight at international forums. Moscow could play this important role within this framework, especially at the Security Council. We have seen Moscow exercise a very important role in obstructing a UN resolution to launch a military attack against Syria last year.
This presents only part of the picture. Cairo needs Moscow for other reasons, such as the armaments issue. The U.S. has been exerting pressure by manipulating the military aid it offers to Egypt, which is usually used to buy modern weapons for the Egyptian Army. The Egyptians now have to diversify the sources from which they buy their arms. Russia can be one such source, since it has made obvious advances in developing its air, land and sea weaponry.
President El Sisi received an awesome and warm reception when he visited President Putin in Moscow. We saw how the Russians displayed their modern weaponry for the benefit of the Egyptian President. There is talk of a historic arms deal between the two sides, which reminds us of the Egyptian-Czech weapons deal that was concluded in the 50s of the last century and which marked the point at which Egypt shook off the mantle of the West and looked to the East.
The third dimension of Egyptian-Russian cooperation revolves around the energy crisis that Egypt has been undergoing recently and the new energy projects. The nuclear station project, to be built in the Dabaa area, on the Mediterranean coast, is considered to be the easiest and fastest way for Egypt and its people to overcome the crisis. Moscow has extensive experience in the nuclear field and in the building of nuclear stations.
At the same time, it is almost certain that Russia believes that Egypt can help it promote its policies, its alliances and its markets. Russia has been suffering from the severe restrictions imposed on it by the West, because of the crisis in Ukraine, in particular.
Economic and political sanctions have, in fact, gone into effect and nobody knows how long they will last. This highlights the role Cairo can play in taking up the slack for Moscow in some sectors, especially the agricultural one. This has become particularly important, now that President Putin has signed a decree prohibiting the import of agriculture products, raw materials and foodstuffs from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia, for a whole year.
Moscow also sees Cairo as a very important gateway to the Arab world, the countries of the middle east, western Arab countries (the Arab Maghreb), and Gulf Arab countries in as far as Russian weaponry is concerned. Egypt's purchasing of Russian weapons will be a valid advertisement and an endorsement of their quality for all those Arab nations. In turn, the market in these countries will not remain hostage to U.S. or European arms. Such a shift will boost the Russian weapons industry.
Additionally, Cairo does present another opportunity for Moscow in the field of oil and gas, for scores of years to come. Major Russian companies are aware that the Egyptian Red Sea and Mediterranean shores are probably rich in gas reserves. Gas fields discovered in the area between Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus and Gaza are all linked to Egyptian fields. We can also add those oil fields that have not yet been discovered in the Egyptian deserts, particularly the western desert, where untapped oil is lying under vast expanses of sand riddled with mines planted during World War II. The Europeans are trying to shirk their duty of defusing and removing the mines they planted.
Lastly, Egypt, weak as it may seem at times, is still the northern gateway to Africa. The Russians are well aware that Africa is the battlefield for the world's new economic conflict. This fact was confirmed by the conference held in Washington last August, at which the U.S. tried to endorse its relationship with the Africans. Washington is fully aware that the Russians and the Chinese in particular, will never let the massively rich black continent, with its oil, gas, gold and uranium, be ransacked by Uncle Sam's companies. That is why a powerful Russian presence in Cairo will bring Moscow much closer to the heart of Africa.
The new-old Egyptian Russian alliance is proof, in any event, that Huntington's theory was not completely accurate because the Islam of Egypt and the Orthodoxy of Russia have met and have united in the face of the Americanized Christianity of the West. Ours is a world of politics and interests, and in many cases reconciliations can be masked by religious banners.


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