Vladimir Putin is facing American-European economic sanctions, the collapse of world oil prices, which represents 70 per cent of Russian national income, and a fall in the ruble's value by 90 per cent against the dollar. The sanctions alone, according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, has cost Russia $140 billion. Now Putin is visiting Egypt, an old partner of the Soviet Union. It is expected that Putin's visit will build on what was agreed during earlier high-level visits between the two countries. Putin expects to build on investments made during the Soviet era, together with the expectation that advanced relations with Egypt will promote Russia's interests in the Arab world. At a global level, the current competition is now mainly between the United States and Russia. It raises three main questions regarding the future. The first is whether the US will persist in its economic sanctions, together with providing Ukraine with heavy arms. Does the US aim to change the regime in Russia? The second question concerns Putin's ability to endure the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy, and whether the alternative relations he is building with China and India will compensate these effects. The third question is related to the European factor and its assessment of the effects of boycotting Moscow on its own large trade and investment in Russia. In this context, a strategic factor is now debated in Europe. The argument in this debate is that any agreement of cooperation with Russia means that Europe has failed in its strategy — following the collapse of the Soviet Union — to merge Russia within the European system. On the contrary, alienating Russia motivates it to build an alliance with an opposing power like China. This may explain the recent visit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, supported by NATO, to Moscow to discuss with Putin an initiative to solve the Ukrainian crisis peacefully. The issue was contentious at the Munich Security Conference on 6 February 2015, where differences emerged between Merkel and US Vice President Joe Biden on providing arms to Ukraine. Now Putin is moving to counter the effects of the sanctions and break Russia's isolation. It was expected that Putin would turn to two Asian powers, China and India, the main partners within the emerging BRICS group that includes Brazil and South Africa. Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in November. Jinping had visited Moscow on his first foreign visit and attended the Olympiad, which was boycotted by Obama and European leaders. Observers spoke of a “personal chemistry” between the two leaders, with each speaking honestly and committing to high levels of cooperation. During the visit a gas deal, under negotiation for two decades, to export Russian gas to China was signed at an estimated value of $400 billion over 30 years. The Russian ambassador to Washington described it as “just a beginning.” Before Putin visit's to China, the Chinese prime minister signed in Moscow a comprehensive deal including 38 projects, including an airliner industry to compete with Boeing in the United States. Analysts said the meeting's outcome reflected the two powers' goal of building an alliance to counter American hegemony. As for India, Putin visited Delhi in December, signing 20 agreements with Indian leaders, including commitments to increase defence cooperation and explore joint energy projects at the North Pole. According to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an ambitious vision was set out for nuclear energy cooperation. Russia will also provide a station in Kudankulam in south India with two reactors. The agreements also included activating two agreements signed in 2008 and 2010 to provide New Delhi with a number of reactors. Russia also agreed to manufacture one of its advanced aircrafts in India, which seeks to develop its industrial sector. While preparing to receive the US president, the Indian prime minister said that Russia “remains the most important ally in the field of defence after it surpassed the US as the largest seller of arms to India.” He added: “Russia was the most important defence partner for decades. Despite that India has today many alternatives, Russia remains the most important partner for us.” Although Turkey is a NATO member that participates in current efforts to isolate Russia, Putin visited Turkey in December and signed trade agreements valued at $100 billion. Regardless of unsettled issues between the two countries, there was a will to advance joint efforts, among them building the first Turkish nuclear reactor. There is also the size of Russian tourism to Turkey, which has reached 4.3 million tourists annually, representing an important slice of Turkish tourism income. Economic ties are expected to strengthen between the two countries. Turkey is now looking to buy oil from Russia to compensate for the reduction of oil from Iran under sanctions. The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
