The center for strategic and international studies published a recent study in which it signaled that Turkey could become a major player in regional markets. Najia Badykov the senior associate with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that Russia has been shifting its attention to Turkey, which is eager to position itself as a gateway to energy markets in the European Union. n line with this goal, its government has already discussed proposals for the construction of pipelines that would deliver gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq and Iran to Europe via its territory. It is now closer than ever to achieving this goal, in view of the collapse of Russia-EU relations over Ukraine and Russia's decision to cancel the South Stream project in favor of a new link across the Black Sea to Turkey. If the new Russian plan succeeds, Turkey will become a gas bridge between East and West. However, it will also confront a number of potentially thorny problems. Because of tensions stemming from the Ukrainian crisis, Moscow signaled earlier this year that it might consider an alternative route for South Stream if the EU continued to block that pipeline. Then on December 1, Putin announced during a visit to Ankara that Russia was abandoning the South Stream project and would instead build a new subsea link to Turkey. He declared that South Stream had reached a dead end because of opposition from the EU, which has said that the Russian-backed scheme may violate the provisions of the Third Energy Package. Rather than continuing to argue with Brussels about compliance with antimonopoly regulations, he said, state-controlled Gazprom will reroute the 63 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year South Stream pipeline through Turkey.Putin called the new pipeline Turkish Stream. According to a statement posted on Gazprom's website, the new link will deliver 14 bcm per year to the Turkish market and another 49 bcm per year to Europe via a new hub on the Turkish-Greek border. According to Badykov, This unexpected turn in Russian-Turkish energy cooperation raises many new questions about the future development of the EU energy market, as well as the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the region. Moscow has prevented Brussels from exercising its veto over South Stream, which was designed to reduce Gazprom's dependence on Ukrainian transit routes. The Russian company can now work with Turkey to diminish or even eliminate Ukraine's role in gas shipments to Europe, thereby leaving Kyiv with little or no income from transit fees and much less leverage over Russia. Ankara has already made clear it that it will not bow to pressure to scale back future cooperation with Russia. As Turkish energy minister Taner Yildiz told reporters in Ankara last week, "Turkey will not make a choice between the European Union and Russia. We are developing projects based on our own and mutual interests." The unveiling of the new project indicates that Russia intends to play hardball with the EU and Turkey—and that it has a good chance of winning. If Moscow and Ankara find common ground and build Turkish Stream, they will depend on each other much more than ever before. In that case, they would be bound together by the pipeline and by long-term obligations to deliver gas to the EU market, and this would have implications for other aspects of their relationship. It remains to be seen, however, whether Brussels has the same level of comfort with plans for future cooperation between Moscow and Ankara. EU officials may therefore raise the question of whether they should continue to support plans for making Turkey the transit route for all Caspian gas, including Turkmen as well as Azeri production. Therefore, Badykove expected on the short term that Ankara and Moscow will probably seek to use their deal as leverage in talks with the EU and other Western interests. They certainly have room to do so. http://csis.org/publication/gas-deal-benefit-russia-turkey
