The al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and Sham or Levant (ISIS) has bounced back from the heavy blow it took last month when Islamist rebels united to oust it from territories under its control in the province of Aleppo. Rejuvenated by fresh recruits from Iraq and elsewhere, it is now encroaching on the strongholds of Liwa' el Tawheed, a major faction in the Islamic Front. It has come to dominate much of Aleppo's countryside especially the strategic border areas, recently taking the town of Al Raa'i, which housed around 400 captured regime prisoners, after multiple suicide bombings which led to the death of several prominent Tawheed commanders. This latest development and the dwindling fortunes of the rebels in the north has made Turkey very worried, prompting it to attack an ISIS convoy, an unprecedented move which could have unforeseen and serious consequences. Although Turkey does not wish to become directly embroiled in the Syrian conflict, many observers feel that it may not have a choice and could yet find itself involved militarily, especially along its lengthy borders with Syria. The border areas are now mostly controlled by the ISIS and restive Kurds seeking autonomy, a scenario it never envisioned happening at the outbreak of the Syrian conflict, and one which it is not likely to tolerate for much longer, especially if the ISIS carry out suicide bombings inside Turkey, as Turkish security officials fear they may be planning. Meanwhile, the fighting in and around Aleppo, the city, has flared up dramatically in the past few days, as the first round of the Geneva II talks aimed at finding a peaceful resolution to the civil conflict drew to a close without any significant progress. It would appear that regime forces backed by local and foreign militias, are taking advantage of the stalled peace talks and the brutal infighting between the ISIS and other Islamist rebel groups which has claimed over 2,300 lives since breaking out a month ago, to push forward in a fresh offensive in the war torn city. Seizing the initiative, the regime is for now ignoring the rural towns and border crossings of Aleppo, and concentrating its efforts instead on the city. Via a campaign of seemingly indiscriminate and relentless heavy bombardment by helicopters dropping explosive barrels as well as non-stop shelling it hopes to lay the groundwork for a possible assault or a partial retake of some of those rebel held areas. The heavy bombing has taken a large toll on civilians, with dozens of wounded and casualties daily as well as entire blocks turned to rubble. Many have chosen to flee to the relatively safer regime held west part or nearby towns, leaving several neighborhoods deserted and almost entirely empty. Their resources already meager and stretched thin, aid agencies and local charities have struggled to cope with the influx of those displaced families, and many with nowhere to go have camped on the streets or in makeshift squats on the suburbs. The disparate rebel factions have been too weakened and demoralized by their bloody and violent war with the ISIS to be able to fight back, and have lost ground in several key areas. Rebel fortunes worsened beginning with the reopening of Aleppo airport last week after over a year of forced closure, which was a big moral blow to them and they even initially denied that any aircraft had landed. As it turns out, non-other than the defense minister Lt. Gen Frej himself paid a visit to the airport amid much media hype and publicity, and then set about rallying his troops and holding several secret high level meeting with local army and loyalist commanders where the plans for the next phase in the Aleppo campaign were laid out. According to sources, the regime is now intent on pursuing a strategy which has worked well in other parts of the country, mainly Damascus. The aim is to divide and lay siege to rebel held areas, slowly choking them and cutting off vital supplies of food and weapons, putting immense pressure on both fighters and civilians, in essence forcing them to capitulate and accept the regime's terms for ceasefires in order to allow in aid and humanitarian access to the embattled areas. If pro-regime media are to be believed, this strategy may have yielded results already as there are reports of several towns and areas in Aleppo tentatively reaching out to regime officials to negotiate an amnesty and ceasefires in return for concessions like allowing the army free access and a handover of heavy weapons. Regardless, the regime push into the rebel held parts of the city has seen them take Karm el Tarab, an area adjacent to the vital rebel held Myasar and Marjeh neighborhoods in the east, as well as Bani Zied to the north and parts of the old city around the Grand Omayad mosque. Their advance into the Shiekh Najar industrial zone was reportedly halted due to pleas by factory owners for time to negotiate a possible peaceful withdrawal of rebels, sparing the vital zone, home to hundreds of factories and a mainstay of Syrian domestic manufacturing, from destruction and ruin. Already the rebels are being squeezed and surrounded, and it is likely the coming days will see ferocious clashes and significant changes on the ground as the regime attempts to wrest back control of large parts of the city. And so it would seem that the dynamic for the next phase in the Syrian conflict is set, with an escalation in fighting and bloodshed, even as preparations are under way for a third round of peace talks that don't seem to be going anywhere. The regime is clearly emboldened and feels strengthened, and is aiming to translate that new found momentum into solid gains on the ground.
