With the approach of the fourth anniversary of the 25 January Revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood, "MB" Group, is preparing to launch operations that it wants to claim as a "Third revolution". After the collapse of the "National Alliance to Support Legitimacy" (NASL), and the dispersal of most of its political components such as the latest political "Salafist Front", the "Independence Party", the "Watan Party" and the "Wasat Party", it may finally be the turn of the Islamic Group. In the past 18 months, the MB failed to mobilise demonstrators to overthrow the government , especially on 28 November 2014, on the day they called the "The Muslim Youth Uprising"; this has led them into thinking of a new evolution. The MB believed that the first anniversary of the ousting of Mohamed Morsi from his post was the last chance for them to regain power; but they failed to attract demonstrators in their bid to remove the current government and to take control, once again. MB's outlook for the future: The MBs projections for the future have been blocked by their insistence on clashing with the authorities. After winning the majority of the Shura council votes, the MB decided to escalate its activities against the existing political authorities, in order to achieve their goals. This has been impossible in the past 44 days because its members have been involved in countering what they call a "coup d'état" against (former President) Mohamed Morsi. They have continued escalating their activities and as a result, some of their leaders have been imprisoned and some of the members have been killed. Political establishments such as the 'freedom and justice party' have been closed and so has the MB Office in Moqatam, leaving some economic institutions under MB control. The MB is still gathering its supporters with a view to escalating the conflict with the authorities, although it suspended the clashes at one point; but its timing was inappropriate, its demands could not be met and its leaders lacked the will to end the conflict. The reason that there is little hope of reaching a political understanding with the MB is perhaps due to the divergent attitudes within the group, especially after "Mohamed Badie" became the Supreme Guide of the "Muslim Brotherhood". There is lack of equilibrium within the MB because of the insistence of its leaders to continue clashing with the State and with the Armed Forces in particular. After the 25 January 2011 Revolution, the MB said it would not repeat what happened in 1952, when it clashed with the Egyptian Army, but it quickly reversed this decision and was crushed. Strangely, the MB is continuing to act against the Army and is preparing for a new revolution, after several failed attempts. It did not achieve any results with its "Anti-Coup Alliance" nor with the so-called "Egyptian Revolutionary Council". The MB is preparing for a third revolution on the fourth revolution anniversary: The MB is divided into two factions, one of them supports reconciliation and wants to keep the MB out of politics for a while, until it has sorted out its internal conflicts and the other does not agree. There have been a number initiatives aimed at achieving a compromise between the MB and the authorities but they have all been rejected by the MB leaders. Even the imprisoned MB leaders have divided themselves into two groups. One group believes it is dangerous to escalate the conflict with the State and especially with the Armed Forces, and the other group believes in escalating clashes until they culminate in a third revolution and they want to use the 25 January anniversary to spark off that revolution. The ideology of members of the MB prevents them from announcing their differences, but the insistence of the MB leaders on continuing in a confrontational mode may force them to expose their divisions. Negotiations between the MB and the authorities have all failed and the MB has been escalating its activities in preparation for a "third revolution", as follows: 1. Reviving contacts with civilian elements and some non-Islamic organisations such as the 6 April Movement and the Revolutionary Socialist Movement. 2. Establishing groups and movements such as the "Dank Movement". 3. Bringing international pressure to bear on the current government, especially on the home front, by exhausting the economy and spreading rumors. 4. Increasing terrorist operations against the Police and launching demonstrations all over the country at the same time, in an attempt to exhaust the security forces, which are already using massive resources to combat the terrorists in Sinai. 5. Allowing MB members to use Molotov cocktails, to burn cars and to use other violent methods in their operations. To this end, the MB has transferred money to its members to finance their preparations for the fourth anniversary of the 25 January Revolution. 6. Opening new press offices to communicate with the media and the public. 7. Announcing the failure of all the initiatives mentioned in the mass media. 8. Drawing up a plan for demonstrations to be launched on January 25 in all the governorates. Their aim is for small, highly active groups to launch protests, which they escalate to a high pitch and which they disperse before the security forces reach them, so as to avoid capture or injury. 9. Enlisting every single MB member to convince at least fifty people to demonstrate on the January 25 anniversary by harping on some of the deficiencies of the current political system, in the hope of recruiting millions to demonstrate on the day, so as to oblige the security forces to escalate their methods of controlling the crowd. Recent events have exposed the MBs' way of thinking and have shown that it does not have a clear plan. This has driven it into using violent methods in its clash with the country. Talk about initiatives is illogical at a time when the country has succeeded in quieting the opposition and persuading them to join forces with pro-government groups, creating a state of calm without the need to sit with the MB. Perhaps the next few days will uncover more of what is going on in the minds of members of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose relationship with the state has puzzled the world for more than 80 years.
