The tragedy of Iraq is symptomatic of the trauma afflicting the Arab world at large. Its distinguishing feature is its scale, which is of an unprecedented magnitude. While the suffering of the Palestinian people drags on, along with the crisis in Lebanon and conflicts in Somalia and Darfur, Iraq has a symbolic and material significance in a league of its own. Political violence is escalating, though the end may be in sight of its primary cause, the US occupation. The current predicament of the US-supported Iraqi government is illustrative of the delusions that grounded US schemes. No less than 17 ministers have resigned. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki seems in an especially tenuous position. His world is collapsing around him. His recent visit to Tehran was viewed with suspicion in Washington, or so we were told. The significance of Al-Maliki's trip to Iran was not lost on Iraq's Arab neighbours either. The Iranian factor has long been key in Iraq and a concern to several of Iraq's Arab neighbours, though for differing reasons. There is a general belief that Iran's growing influence in Iraq has dire consequences for the war- torn country. There is also the unspoken understanding that it exacerbates -- if not is a primary engine of -- a supposed rift between "Shias" and "Sunnis" that now is one of the key justifications for continued US military presence in Iraq. In reality, the Iraqi Shia political scene is fragmented along both religious and political grounds. This fragmentation is a death sentence to the beleaguered Maliki government. There is not one single Shia political group, but rather several rival factions, some with strong ties to Iran and to the US occupation, and some that side with the national resistance, against US and foreign interference in Iraqi affairs. Tehran, naturally if cynically, has made much political capital out of its religious influence among the Shias of Iraq. It has sometimes played one group against another. Moqtada Al-Sadr, for example, in spite of his sometimes vehemently anti-American rhetoric, has more than once played the role of propping up the pro-Iranian Shia forces that dominate the US-backed Iraqi government, though ostensibly he is opposed to Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a key pro-Iranian player in the US-vetted political process. How long this contorted marriage can continue is anyone's guess. Where does Iran ultimately stand? The US seems unable to handpick an Iraqi government capable of implementing its core strategic plans for Iraq, including the privatisation of Iraqi oil. Ever more, the national unity of Iraqis exposes as propaganda the twin discourses of sectarian strife and approaching civil war. The key target audience has left the theatre, but the actors still perform. How long can President George Bush ignore the reality that he faces the resistance of an entire nation? The neo-cons in Washington appear to have set their hopes on handing the Iraq disaster to the Democrats. But a week is a long time in politics, and a year and half is an eternity.
