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High stakes gamble
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 16 - 08 - 2007

Abbas has bet everything on cooperating with Israel, worries Khaled Amayreh
With a malicious war of incitement thoroughly poisoning the general political atmosphere in the occupied Palestinian territories, and with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas striving to strengthen an "authority" without any real authority, the Hamas-Fatah strife continues to mount toward the point of no-return.
The deepening enmity between the two sides, constantly nourished by Israel and the United States, is having a conspicuously depressive effect on many Palestinians and may be causing irreparable damage to their national cause, at least for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, both Hamas and Fatah are utilising nearly all their energy and meagre assets against each other, leaving the national cause at Israel's mercy, in the words of one Palestinian political analyst.
Apart from the unmitigated incitement, both governments in Ramallah and Gaza, each of which views the other as illegitimate, are persecuting and arresting followers of the other side, always "in the name of the law" as their respective spokesmen keep saying.
Even the pettiest of things are utilised and manipulated by each side against the other, against the "enemy".
In most cases, ordinary citizens, especially in the Gaza Strip, are the ones who lose and suffer most. For example thousands of newly-graduated high school students in the Strip are now at a loss as to what to do following a decision by the Ramallah-based Ministry of Education not to recognise their certificates, endorsed by the Gaza-based minister of education.
In the West Bank, faceless Fatah militiamen, apparently in league with the PA government, continue to raid mosques and homes, arresting Hamas supporters. Several incidents of shooting, mostly targeting Hamas supporters, have also taken place, with the PA justice system unable or unwilling to intervene.
Many Palestinians view the irksome strife between the two government as silly and stupid, given the fact that both governments and both authorities have no real sovereignty since both are languishing under a sinister Israeli military occupation.
The PA government in Ramallah, which former Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Arens has described as "an artificial Israeli creation", is obviously totally dependent on Israel for its very survival and is effectively fighting Hamas with the sword of the Israeli occupation.
Similarly, the Hamas government in Gaza, along with the estimated 1.5 million chronically-tormented and continually-starved Gazans, is languishing under a hermetic blockade that is only keeping them barely alive. The blockade allows only a few shipments of food through, and there is very little the Hamas government can do apart from hoping and praying that the international community will relent before Gaza becomes another Somalia.
Hence, the Hamas-Fatah strife should be viewed as a showdown between prisoners who are constantly killed, maimed and hounded by the prison warden that is Israel.
To be sure, Hamas has been constantly urging the Ramallah-based regime to immediately enter into serious talks to overcome the rampant crisis which is exhausting the Palestinians' mental health. However, Abbas, emboldened by Western and Israeli backing, has rejected all reconciliation efforts, especially those originating from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and even Russia, opting instead to place all his eggs in the American-Israeli basket.
Abbas, some aides have intimated, has apparently come to view the divorce with Hamas as a long-awaited opportunity to revive the moribund peace process and get Israel to give him a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank. This explains his stubborn rejection of rapprochement with Hamas and persistent invocation of the mantra -- no reconciliation with Hamas until the "bloody coup mongers" agree to undo the "coup" in Gaza, and "revert to the situation that prevailed in Gaza prior to the mid- June events.
But the Palestinian leader is not even willing to tell his people how even these condescending and insolent demands can be met without sitting down with Hamas.
Adel Samara is a noted leftist intellectual and economist in the West Bank with no ideological or political affiliation with either Hamas or Fatah. In an exclusive interview with the Weekly, he argues that it is pointless to expect Abbas to talk with Hamas since the man "has lost his free will" to the Americans and the Israelis.
"It is abundantly clear that the Palestinian Authority is acting under the influence of Israel and the United States, and that it has lost its ability to act independently. In fact, Abbas is finding himself in a situation where his very political survival is very much dependent on appeasing Israel and the Bush administration, whereas talking with Hamas, let alone revive the government of national unity, could mean political suicide for him."
Underscoring Abbas's naivety, Samara argued that the Bush administration is only using the Fatah leader as an additional asset to effect American strategic goals in the Middle East. "Israel and the US are only using him to weaken the overall Palestinian national cause. I am worried that by the time he wakes up, the Palestinian cause will have been seriously weakened."
Asked if he thought Abbas was counting too much on the American-sponsored regional peace conference slated to take place in November, Samara said "Abbas is being deceived and duped by Olmert."
"If you want to know true Israeli thinking, don't pay attention to what Olmert says, instead we should pay attention to what (Israeli Defence Minister Ehud) Barak says. And he says he doesn't count much on Abbas."
Samara argued that the present Palestinian crisis is likely to continue for sometime unless the Arab states, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, move swiftly to exert real pressure on both sides, especially on Abbas, to reestablish Palestinian unity.
Samara said that Abbas was betting on a Hamas surrender, mainly as a result of the stringent Israeli-western blockade. "I believe that Hamas won't surrender. On the contrary, Hamas seems to be determined to remain steadfast and is itself betting on the disintegration of the Abbas regime, mainly as a result of Abbas's expected failure to extract any meaningful political concessions from Israel."
Nasserudin Al-Sha'er, the former Palestinian deputy prime minister, who was released from an Israeli jail recently, having been arrested for affiliating with an illegal political party (Hamas), agrees with Samara's prognosis. Al-Sha'er told the Weekly that the deep mistrust between Fatah and Hamas stemmed mainly from convictions on each side that the other side is intent on crushing it.
"In Gaza, Hamas believes Fatah is regrouping and about to start an insurrection to end Hamas's rule, and in the West Bank the PA thinks Hamas is trying to do the same thing. In both cases, shameful things are happening, including arresting and persecuting people for mere affiliation with the other faction."
While recognising the Israeli influence on the Ramallah- based government, Al-Sha'er believes that the real problem inhibiting Palestinian national unity has very much to do with inherently Palestinian factors. "I understand the Israeli factor, it is real and I am not trying to downplay it; however, it is also true that there are peculiarly Palestinian factors which have to do with the political and ideological primitiveness shaping our political culture."
The former university professor said he was sure that the Saudis and the Egyptians would make more efforts to rectify the Palestinian situation. "I believe both Egypt and Saudi Arabia realise the immense importance of rectifying the Palestinian situation. It is part of their national security."


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