Those who are both with and against President Mubarak are keeping close tabs on his health and his plans, Dina Ezzat reports It has been four months since President Hosni Mubarak underwent surgery in Germany. And it is 16 months to go to the next presidential elections in Egypt. Speculation over the president's health and his plans -- or the lack thereof -- is running high. The debate over the "future of the presidency" -- as labelled by commentators and politicians -- was ongoing long before Mubarak underwent surgery to remove his gall bladder on 6 March. Since March, however, two lines of the debate have merged into one: the future of the presidency should Mubarak not run for the next presidential elections. According to Gamal Abdel-Gawad, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, the bottom-line question is "Basically, what's next?" This is not just a question that is being increasingly debated by Egyptians. It is a question that many world capitals, from Washington to Tel Aviv and Tehran, are busy finding answers to. The unofficial word from the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) is that Mubarak will be the candidate of choice for a sixth term in office next year. This week, leading NDP figure Moufid Shehab said that the party would hold a conference "next June" to announce the name of its candidate for the presidential contest. Shehab, who spoke on a private Egyptian TV channel, argued it is not mandatory to limit the number of terms allowed for a president, alluding that Mubarak -- due to turn 83 next May -- will run again. Shehab's statement came only days after Minister of Information Anas El-Fiqi and Presidential Spokesman Suleiman Awad went on record to deny a series of negative, even alarming, reports, mostly in the American and Israeli press, that suggested a sudden and rapid decline in the president's health. The statements of the three officials came against the backdrop of a flurry of presidential activities that had included in one week two summits, with the leaders of Turkey, last Wednesday, and Saudi Arabia scheduled to arrive to Sharm El-Sheikh as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press. The presidential activities also included a series of police and military academy graduations that each lasted three hours. In addition, there was a round of meetings with senior aides both in the government and the NDP to manage crucial state issues, ranging from the scandalous mismanagement of state assets to the choice of NDP candidates for the next parliamentary elections due next autumn. Still, the debate rages on. Hardly a day passes without an opinion article or a news feature appearing in the Egyptian and foreign dailies on Mubarak's health and plans for the next presidential elections, despite attempts at soothing the waters by some NDP figures, including its number one media figure, Alieddin Hilal. His penchant to fudge the issue has come under much fire. For Abdel-Gawad, who is also a member of the NDP, the question of "What next?" is not only about who leads, but also the style of leadership. "The question is not just about whether or not President Mubarak will run for the elections, rather it is about the political features of the regime in the coming years. There are several questions that have been raised recently on the style of state administration, and the regime seems responsive to these concerns," said Abdel-Gawad. Abdel-Gawad cited as examples the presidential directives issued this week to design new rules for the "convenient and transparent" administration of state assets and the demands expressed by top NDP leaders to introduce clear rules to avoid any conflict of private and public interests in the case of ministers with business interests. "This is not about the plans of the ruler, but rather about the reputation of the regime," he said. Meanwhile, Abdel-Gawad argued that available "constitutional arrangements" that allow for a multi-party elections -- albeit with many limitations on the right of independents to run -- should provide a sense of security for those concerned about the future of the presidency. "And when all is said and done, the introduction of a new system is worth supporting," he said. Some, however, remain sceptical about the ability of the system to deliver stability. They argue that the disturbing scenario of a sudden vacancy in the top executive seat would not easily be managed under present "constitutional arrangements". "I am worried for the future of Egypt, because nobody seems to know what is happening next, and this is the worst thing that any society has to face -- a question mark over its future," said Wahid Abdel-Meguid, a liberal political expert. Abdel-Meguid, like Abdel-Gawad, agrees that the prospects are dwindling for the assignment of a vice-president -- an option briefly discussed at top state echelons following the return of Mubarak from his medical trip to Germany. "There are several groups whose interests and political ambition could be undermined should there be a vice-president," said Abdel-Meguid. Moreover, Abdel-Meguid is convinced that there are hardly any chances to apply the much talked about "scenario of succession" -- a euphemism to the immediate ascent of Gamal Mubarak, the political star of the NDP, to power following his father. According to Abdel-Meguid, Gamal Mubarak is not playing the game like the heavyweights of the NDP, and has not come up with substantive projects "beyond the limited reforms introduced to the mechanism of the NDP" that could garner wide support within the party itself. "I am not saying that Gamal is completely out of the picture, but I am saying his chances are considerably retreating," he said. If not Mubarak senior, and not Mubarak junior, then who -- ask many in and out of Egypt -- will be the next president to run Egypt, a crucial and strategic state that has enormous political potential but that suffers vast economic, social and political ailments? Speculation is divided. Some see a top military figure taking power, or top NDP figure that could have the support of the police and the military. What about possible contenders like Mohamed El-Baradei, who publicly announced his wish to run if the constitution were amended to allow for independents to run, or Amr Moussa, who alluded to the possibility of his running? The answer of many within and without the regime is "zero chance".
