It has been two weeks since President Hosni Mubarak travelled to Germany for medical treatment. Dina Ezzat monitors the implications of his absence Public reactions to the news of President Hosni Mubarak's surgery to remove the gall bladder and a growth in the small intestine on 6 March in a German hospital in Heidelberg ran the gamut of emotions. Quelling health rumours, a week after the surgery Egyptian TV broadcast a short item on Tuesday afternoon showing the president seated on a chair in his hospital room surrounded by his doctors and talking to them. Mubarak's surgeon then announced continued improvement in the president's "overall medical condition" as well as his "physical activities and appetite". Nonetheless, said the doctor, Mubarak will remain under his full supervision for the "coming days". "Mubarak was upbeat and in very good spirits as usual," said Dr Markus Buechler, who leads the medical team. "His resolve and willpower that we have witnessed all this week was very obvious this morning as he looked forward to going back to his normal activity," he added. The televised appearance led to a sharp rebound of the Egyptian stock market after it had its largest fall on Monday since December. Egypt's benchmark EGX30 index had lost 3.84 per cent by the close of the day's trading after falling 2.4 per cent the previous day. Market analysts attributed the uncertainty to rumours over the president's health. Earlier in the week repeated announcements by spokesmen for the Heidelberg University Hospital stressing that President Mubarak was making a steady recovery did little to avert the flurry of speculation. Nor has the expert opinion of doctors who say gall bladder operations are routine procedures that seldom result in complications. German sources speaking on condition of anonymity say neither the surgeon who conducted the operation nor the spokesperson for the hospital where the president is being treated would offer inaccurate information, even when the patient is also a head of state. Meanwhile, German and Egyptian officials both continue to state the obvious: the volume of information that the president and his family choose to offer to the public is the prerogative of the president and his family. Minister of Information Anas El-Fiqi has offered a steady stream of progress reports on the president's health, intended, he said, to ensure complete transparency. Alieddin Hilal, a leading figure of the ruling National Democratic Party, said on Tuesday that President Mubarak would appear in a short TV interview soon. The first time it was officially announced that the president was flying overseas for a medical operation -- in June 2004, again to Germany, though that time Munich for an operation on his spine -- Mubarak spent 17 days overseas, during which time speculation on the state of his health ran rife. Some opposition figures have expressed concern over the management of the president's trip, arguing that insufficient detail is being provided and that officials need to announce at least a tentative date for Mubarak's return. In the absence of such details, they say, speculation spins out of control, which is particularly hazardous given the centrality of the office of president in Egypt's political and administrative system. "The nation cannot be left guessing. State institutions must be fully informed about the true state of the president's health," says Hassan Nafaa, a political science professor and opposition activist. Privately, officials suggest that Mubarak could return within a week to 10 days though no official statement has been made. In accordance with the constitution Mubarak has delegated his powers to the prime minister pending his return. For many, though, the biggest concern relates to the failure to appoint a vice-president since Mubarak assumed the presidency following the 1981 assassination of Anwar El-Sadat at the hand of militant Islamists. Under the constitution, should the office of president become vacant presidential powers will be exercised by the speaker of the parliament for 60 days, allowing for presidential elections to be held. It is a system, claim many, that offers little in the way of reassurance. "If it is such a safe arrangement then why has the stock market fallen in the wake of rumours over the health of the president?" asked one small scale investor. During the past two weeks the government has taken no major decisions. A decision over who will be the new sheikh of Al-Azhar has been deferred until the return of the president. The big question now is will Mubarak contest the presidential elections scheduled for 2011, as most seemed to agree he would before his medical treatment in Heidelberg? The opposition has long been uncomfortable with the constitutional amendments that will dictate who becomes Egypt's next president, complaining that the current regulations make it all but impossible for anyone outside the upper echelons of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) to succeed President Mubarak, and effectively bar independent candidates from standing. "The speaker of parliament is member of the political bureau of the National Democratic Party, and so is the speaker of the Shura Council," points out Hussein Abdel-Razek, leader of the leftist Tagammu Party. Yet even members of the NDP concede that it is unlikely that their future candidate will command the legitimacy of the current president which, they admit, is rooted in his record of military service and not in his affiliation to the ruling party. Indeed, it can be argued that it is President Mubarak who lends legitimacy to the NDP, which he heads, rather than vice versa.
