Serene Assir examines the significance of the return to Gaza of up to 80 Palestinians stranded in Sinai Eighty Palestinians with ties to Hamas and Islamic Jihad returned to Gaza in the early hours of 30 September purportedly without Israeli intervention or prior knowledge. They had been stranded in Egypt since 9 June when Israel and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) agreed to close the Rafah terminal. Egypt allowed the group, the majority members of Hamas, to re-enter Gaza via an opening in the border fence a kilometre from Rafah and not, as initial reports suggested, via the Rafah terminal itself. Hamas MP Moushir Al-Masri was among the returnees. According to Major General Salaheddin Selim, a military expert with close ties to the Egyptian regime, "the return was secured following negotiations between [Palestinian Prime Minister] Ismail Haniyeh and the Egyptian authorities." Meanwhile Egypt also offered Israel assurances that the decision should not be construed as a change of policy towards Abu Mazen in his political battle against Hamas. Egyptian officials speaking to Al - Ahram Weekly said they nevertheless emphasised Cairo does not intend on severing whatever contact with Hamas it deems necessary. The June closure of the Rafah terminal, which contributed to the ongoing siege of Gaza, left an estimated 6,000 Palestinians stranded in Egypt. The vast majority were eventually able to re- enter Gaza via the Egyptian-Israeli controlled terminal of Al-Oja, leaving between 200 and 250 Palestinians behind, all of whom feared their history of resistance to Israeli occupation would result in them being detained. Indeed, according to Al-Masri, one man -- Ahmed Al-Essawi -- was reportedly detained while crossing the border at Al-Oja. Asked whether he believed the negotiation that led to the men's return signalled an improvement in Hamas-Egyptian relations, Selim replied that, "Egypt has already made it clear that in any negotiation process all the Palestinian factions must be taken into account". It is a position that may well impact on the proposed peace summit in November. Both Israel and Abu Mazen reject Hamas's participation. "Egypt hasn't yet decided whether it will participate in the summit, which we fear may be more of a PR stunt than a serious attempt to move towards a final settlement," says Selim. The pro-Israeli website DebkaFile accused Egypt of violating the "Egyptian-Israeli siege imposed on the territory [Gaza]" by allowing the Palestinians to cross the border. It also claimed Egypt and Hamas had brokered a deal, allowing the Palestinians to return in exchange for "Al-Qaeda Egypt's senior liaison officer with Osama Bin Laden", Mohamed Fayad Ibrahim, who, according to the unsourced DebkaFile article, was living in Gaza. Cairo has consistently denied that it supports the siege on Gaza, or the closure of the Rafah terminal. Yet Egypt has also refused to push for a reopening of the terminal on the basis that it could do so only with the agreement of the Palestinian president and the Palestinian Authority. Monday morning's action marks the first instance of a possible break in that position. "With regard to the DebkaFile story, I can neither confirm nor deny it. What I can say is that Egypt will not have allowed the Palestinians, mainly Hamas members, to return without getting something back. No doubt Hamas has paid a very big price for this return," says Emad Gad, a political analyst with the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. Based on comments from Egyptian officials speaking to the Weekly, the price may be a political one. One source said Egypt is certain that, sooner or later, "possibly after the upcoming peace summit", Hamas and Fatah will have to enter into some kind of serious dialogue. While tolerating other Arab and Muslim mediations in the inter-Palestinian context, Egypt is not prepared to give up its role on this front, the source added. Indeed, at least some of the Hamas figures in question have been engaged in negotiations with senior diplomatic and security officials in Cairo, as Al-Masri confirmed in interviews with the Weekly in recent weeks. The number of Palestinians stranded in Egypt is once again growing following Israel's closure of Al-Oja in August, with some estimates putting the figure close to 2,000. Among them is Abu Mohamed (not his real name). Now politically inactive, he has a history of resistance with the Palestine Liberation Organisation dating back to the 1970s. "Not everyone has been able to return," he told the Weekly. "We are nonetheless pleased that some of us made it back in. We hope that Egypt will take more steps of a similar nature in the days to come." Selim does not discount the possibility that Egypt may take further action to enable those Palestinians Israel would like to detain to return to Gaza. "In part Egypt is willing to put pressure on Israel and on Abu Mazen" to push for a final settlement that is favourable for the Palestinians and in line with international commitments, he said. For those Palestinians in no danger of arrest by Israel, Cairo appears willing to wait until Tel Aviv again sees fit to open Al-Oja rather than pressing unilaterally for a reopening of Rafah. Among those currently displaced in North Sinai, the number of families with children and people in need of medical attention is on the rise. A repeat of last summer's crisis seems to be developing, with many of those stranded running out of funds and relief -- from Egyptian syndicates and, to a lesser extent, the Egyptian Red Crescent Society -- thin on the ground. Most effective in its delivery of aid has been the Muslim Brotherhood-controlled Doctors' Syndicate. On the other side of the border Gazans remain besieged, with no indication when the Rafah terminal will become operational. The economy in Gaza is edging towards collapse, and aid dependency threatens to engulf the whole of the Strip. "The Gaza you know is gone," Gaza resident Mohamed (last name undisclosed) told the Weekly. "You cannot possibly imagine what it feels like to be there. We are heading towards collective suicide." According to a report issued this week by the Gaza-based NGO Al-Mezan, the siege constitutes "a systematic form of collective punishment that has aimed to destroy the Palestinian economy progressively since the outbreak of Al-Aqsa Intifada in September 2000". In breach of international humanitarian law the siege systematically targets civilians. In addition, Israel's threats to cut off electricity and fuel "could spark humanitarian, health and environmental crises, within a very short time". Under a US-brokered agreement reached in November 2005 Rafah terminal was to be operated under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. The terminal is the only route in and out of the Gaza Strip that does not lead into Israeli-controlled territory. Israel has consistently refused to respect the agreement, or the sovereignty on movement it theoretically guarantees Palestinian residents of Gaza, by repeatedly and for extended periods prevented EU monitors assigned to observe procedures at the terminal from reaching their posts.
