Adaptation strategies are essential if Egypt's agricultural base is to weather global climate change, writes Samia Al-Marsafawy* Human-induced climate change is caused by the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that have accumulated in the atmosphere mainly over the past 100 years. Scientific evidence that climate change is a serious and urgent issue is now compelling. It warrants strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions around the world to reduce the risk of damaging and potentially irreversible effects on ecosystems, societies and economics. Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world, namely access to water, food production, health and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms. Africa is the continent most at risk from environmental changes due to global warming as the continent is home to many of the world's poorest nations who are unable to afford mitigation strategies on their own. The impact of adverse climate changes on agriculture is exacerbated in Africa by the lack of adaptation strategies, which are increasingly limited due to the lack of institutional, economic and financial capacity to support such actions. The impact of climate change on agricultural activities has been shown to be significant for low input farming systems in developing countries in Africa. Agriculture in Egypt is expected to be especially vulnerable because of its hot climate. Further warming is consequently expected to reduce crop productivity. The effects are exacerbated by the fact that agriculture and agro- ecological systems are especially prominent in the economics of Egypt as one African country. Scientists in the Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute at the Agricultural Research Centre studied the impact of climate change on crop productivity, crop water use and the general economic impact on agriculture in Egypt. Based on present production, wheat grain yields will be reduced by nine per cent if temperature increases by two degrees centigrade, and by 19 per cent with a four degrees increase. Water requirements of wheat as a winter crop will not be changed significantly due to the increase of two or four degrees. Maize grain yields will be reduced by 23 per cent and water needs will rise by eight per cent under climate change conditions compared to current conditions. Sorghum grain yields will be reduced by 23 per cent and water needs will be increased by eight per cent due to climatic changes by the year 2050, based on present production and water needs. The reduction in yield is expected to be 14 per cent and the increase in water needs six per cent between 2010 and 2050. Soybean grain yields will decline by 28 per cent and water needs will increase by 15 per cent due to climate change in 2050 compared to grain yield and water needs under current conditions. Barley grain yields will be reduced by 20 per cent and water needs will be decreased by one per cent by the year 2050. Rice crops will be reduced by 11 per cent and water needs will be increased by 16 per cent based on present rice crop production and its water needs. Cotton crops will increase by 17 per cent due to a two degree centigrade rise in temperatures, and by 31 per cent with a four-degree rise, compared to productivity under current climate conditions. At the same time, water needs will be increased by 10 per cent under future climate changes compared to current climate conditions. Tomato yields in the North Nile Delta will be reduced by 14 per cent if temperatures increase by 1.5 degrees centigrade and by 50 per cent with a 3.5 degrees increase, based on present production. Sunflower seed yields will be reduced 21, 27 and 38 per cent in the North Nile Delta, and Middle and Upper Egypt respectively, compared to production under current conditions. At the same time, water consumption will increase approximately five and 12 per cent in North Nile Delta and Middle Egypt respectively, while in Upper Egypt, it will decline approximately 0.5 per cent as a result of reductions in yield. Sugar yields in Upper Egypt (which represents the most important sugarcane area in Egypt) would decline by 24.5 per cent. In addition, water consumption would be increased by 2.31 per cent and crop water productivity would be decreased by 25.56 per cent under climate change conditions compared with current conditions. Concerning farm net revenue, an increase in temperature of one degree centigrade would reduce net revenue by $968.94 per hectare (one hectare equals 2.4 feddans ) without livestock and by $1044.28 per hectare when livestock is included. Increasing temperatures of 1.5 to 3.6 degrees centigrade will greatly reduce farm net revenue per hectare. Reductions in net revenue are estimated at $1453.41 and $3488.18 per hectare for increases of 1.5 and 3.6 degrees respectively. With regard to economic studies for sugarcane, climate change without adaptation strategies could decrease farm net return by 44.32 and 70.15 per cent for holders who own the land and holders who rent it respectively. Adaptation to climate change necessitates identifying appropriate crop management strategies, maximising benefits and minimising risks associated with agriculture in Egypt. Future adaptation strategies to climate change may involve the development of new, more heat- tolerant cultivars, new crops (more cotton cultivation as an alternative to some maize crops), and/or changing cultivation practices (optimum sowing dates and cultivars for suitable agro-climatological regions). Modification of cropping patterns (ie partially growing cotton after wheat in the same year and land) and reducing or keeping on the current area under cultivation with some high water consumer crops (i.e. sugarcane and rice crops) can be adopted. The super cultivars and optimum sowing dates for each region will reveal an increase in cotton productivity up to 18 per cent; more efficient water application can improve productivity by about nine per cent. For example, the tomato crop will need more water to compensate for the reduction in yields as a result of high temperatures. With regard to sowing dates, cultivation of the tomato crop from the 1- 10 March is more suitable under climate change (+1.5 degrees centigrade) in the North Nile Delta. However, with +3.5 degrees centigrade change, sowing through 20-28 of February would be more efficient. Another example is the optimum sowing date for the sunflower crop. Under future climate change conditions this would be between 1-10 of May in the North Nile Delta and Middle Egypt and between 1 June and 10 June in Upper Egypt. Furthermore, under future climate change, planting sugarcane in early February would cause an increase of 12.4 per cent sugar yield compared with planting on 16 March. . Water needs will rise and farm net revenue will decrease without adaptation strategies. It is therefore of major importance that we design future adaptation strategies to climate change to identify appropriate crop management strategies that maximise the benefits and minimise the risks associated with the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Egypt. * The writer is professor of agrometeorology and climate change studies at Soil, Water and Environment Research Institute.
