"We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive." -- Albert Einstein The emerging risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change are not only the outcomes of physical processes. They are also a consequence of human actions and choices. According to the UNDP Human Development Report (HDR) 2007/ 2008, which was internationally launched last Tuesday, 27 November 2007, significant climate change is a reality and has three distinctive characteristics: it is cumulative; its effects are irreversible; and it is global. To chart a course away from dangerous climate change and follow a sustainable path would require keeping any rise in global temperature below a two degree centigrade increase. The report affirms that responsibility for climate change lies mainly in the carbon footprint. While carbon emissions are global, climate change is nonetheless differentiated between developed countries, which are more responsible for its causes, and developing countries, which are more vulnerable to its effects. Unified efforts on a global scale would henceforth be based on differentiated responsibility, meaning that obligations are apportioned as follows: - The world cuts emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 with a peak by 2020 - Developed countries cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 - Developing countries cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2050 This apportioning is based on the following daunting figures that reflect the deeper carbon footprint of rich countries: - The UK (population 60 million) emits more carbon dioxide than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million) - The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper carbon footprint than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people) - The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper carbon footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries Disaster risks, however, are skewed towards developing countries. The report estimates in developing countries 1 in 19 people are affected, while the corresponding number in developed countries is 1 in 1,500. Furthermore, climate related risks force people into downward spirals of disadvantage that undermine future opportunities. The report cites five human development tipping points: reduced agricultural productivity; heightened water insecurity; increased exposure to extreme weather events; collapse of ecosystems; increased health risks. Extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity exist and international cooperation has been slow to materialise. Adaptation plans need to be part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation. In case of extreme weather events, the report estimates that a one-metre rise in sea levels would have severe implications on a number of countries. For example, in Lower Egypt, six million people are likely to be displaced and 4,500 square kilometres of farmland flooded. In Bangladesh, 18 per cent of the land could be inundated, affecting 11 per cent of the population. Adapting to the inevitable requires national action and international cooperation based on strategies for mitigation. To set mitigation targets countries must take stock of current problems. Pricing carbon emissions and the role of markets have been defined as crucial elements of any mitigation strategy, while the role of public policy in the area of regulation and research and development are essential factors of success. There are many challenges facing the development of mitigation strategies, starting with the fact that polluters do not suffer the worse consequences of their own pollution. Indeed, who will be ready to carry the financial burden of climate change proof infrastructure, estimated to be at least $86 billion by 2015? In brief, the report calls attention to the following findings: - The poor are suffering and will suffer more with climate change. They are at greatest risk of facing human development reversals leading to low human development traps. - Climate change is an urgent matter. We need to act now. - Both mitigation and adaptation are needed to truly fight climate change and the threats it poses to humanity. - Rich countries must cut emissions by 30 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. - International cooperation on finance and technology transfer is needed. The report argues for the creation of a climate change mitigation facility. This piece is based on a presentation of HDR 2007/2008 by Papa Seck of the Human Development Report Office, UNDP, New York.
