The UNDP report on climate change paints a grim picture for developing economies. Meanwhile, Egyptian officials are studying history for possible action, writes Mohamed El-Sayed The 2007-2008 report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) entitled Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World is alarming. Released on Tuesday, it primarily highlights the environmental and economic hazards looming over the world due to a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The report focussed on a rapid rise in sea levels due to accelerated ice sheet disintegration. Global temperature, the report noted, increases by 3-4 degrees Centigrade which could result in 330 million people being permanently or temporarily displaced through flooding. "Over 70 million people in Bangladesh, six million in Lower Egypt and 22 million in Vietnam could be affected" by climate change, the report said. Climate change, according to the report, will affect rainfall, temperature and water availability for agriculture in vulnerable areas. For example, drought-affected areas in sub-Saharan Africa could expand by 60-90 million hectares, with dry land zones suffering losses of $26 billion by 2060 (2003 prices), "a figure in excess of bilateral aid to the region in 2005," estimated the report. Egypt's economy is certain to be threatened by climate change since "Delta flooding could transform conditions for agricultural production," it added. But the real problem is that in developing countries like Egypt, high levels of poverty and low levels of human development limit the capacity of poor households to manage climate risks. "With limited access to formal insurance, low incomes and meagre assets, poor households have to deal with climate- related shocks under highly constrained conditions," warned the report. Another problem is that climate shocks also erode long-term opportunities for human development, undermining productivity and eroding human capabilities. "Climate change is ratcheting up the risks and vulnerabilities facing the poor. It is placing further stress on already over-stretched coping mechanisms and trapping people in downward spirals of deprivation," it asserted. Developing countries, as a matter of fact, face far more severe adaptation challenges since they will be met by governments operating under severe financing constraints, and by poor people themselves. But is the Egyptian government taking precautionary action to ward off the dangers of climate change? Officials downplayed the possible effects of climate change on Egypt. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources -- which is the government body most concerned with the effects of climate change -- said predictions about the immersion of the Delta are based on studies and theoretical estimates that are very difficult to come true. The ministry's announcement came after former British Foreign Minister Margaret Becket warned of the flooding of the Delta and a possible decrease in the level of Nile water. The ministry retorted that even if this were true, it would take thousands of years to become a reality. Nevertheless, the ministry has prepared several plans to stave off any adverse effects. In a speech given at Alexandria University this week, Minister of Irrigation Mahmoud Abu Zeid said in his speech -- delivered on his behalf by the ministry's head of the Nile sector Abdel-Fattah Metawe' -- that Egypt was among the first countries in the world to take the necessary measures to protect the Delta from immersion. "Protecting the Delta began in the era of Mohamed Ali by building a protective wall at Abu Qeir," Abu Zeid explained, referring to a 1.5km protective marine wall in eastern Rosetta and another 3.5km one in western Rosetta. There are also ideas about building a new dam south of the existing High Dam at Aswan, to make the best use of 10 billion cubic metres of water vapourised from Lake Nasser. Another study is being conducted to reserve water in Al-Qattara Depression in the Western Desert. However, the UNDP report argues that no one country can win the battle against climate change single-handedly. "Collective action is not an option but an imperative," it said. "Strategies for coping with climate risks can reinforce deprivation." For example, producers in drought-prone areas often forego production of crops that could raise income in order to minimise risk, preferring to produce crops with lower economic returns but resistant to drought. "When climate disasters strike, the poor are often forced to sell productive assets with attendant implications for recovery, in order to protect consumption," noted the report. When that is not enough, households cope in other ways such as by cutting meals, reducing spending on health and taking children out of school. "These are desperation measures that can create life-long cycles of disadvantage, locking vulnerable households into low human development traps," it added. Estimating the aid financing requirements for adaptation is inherently difficult, and in the absence of detailed national assessments of climate change risks and vulnerabilities, any assessment must remain a guesstimate. "Our 'guesstimate' is that by 2015, at least $44 billion will be required annually for 'climate proofing' development investments [2005 prices]," the report said. Investments in social protection and wider human development strategies are needed to strengthen the capacity of vulnerable people to cope with risks, noted the report. "Our ballpark estimate is that at least $40 billion will be needed by 2015 to strengthen national strategies for poverty reduction in the face of climate change risks," it continued. This figure represents around 0.5 per cent of projected 2015 GDP for low income and lower middle income countries. An additional $2 billion a year could be needed as a provision for disaster and post-disaster recovery, especially that droughts, floods, storms and landslides pose greater threats. The integration of adaptation planning into wider poverty reduction strategies is a priority, stressed the report. However, successful adaptation policies cannot be grafted on to systems that are failing to address underlying causes of poverty, vulnerability and wider disparities based on wealth, gender and location. Dialogue over Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers provides a possible framework for integrating adaptation in poverty reduction planning, it stated. In fact, revision of PRSPs through nationally-owned processes to identify financing requirements and policy options for adaptation could provide a focal point for international cooperation.
