Nader Noureldeen Mohamed assesses water scarcity in the Arab world and suggests several solutions to avoid poverty The fight against water scarcity, drought and desertification is, in fact, a fight against poverty in Arab countries. The term "water security" refers to an index that identifies a threshold of 1,700m3 per capita per year of renewable water, based on estimates of water requirement in the household, agricultural, industrial and energy sectors, as well as the needs of the environment. Countries whose renewable water supplies cannot sustain this figure are said to experience "water stress", and when supply falls below 1,000m3 per capita per year a country has "water scarcity". Anything below 500m3 per capita per year is described as "absolute scarcity". According to this definition, all Arab countries except Iraq suffer now and in the near future from acute water scarcity. The world contains an estimated 1,400 million cubic kilometres of water, and only 0.003 per cent of this vast amount is fresh water resources -- water that can be used for drinking, hygiene, agriculture and industry. However, not all of this water is accessible because it comes in the form of seasonal flooding, deep ground water and others. Only about 13 per cent -- 9,000 to 14,000 cubic kilometres -- of this fresh water is economically available for human use, a mere teaspoon in a bathtub when compared to the total amount of water on earth. The major causes of water scarcity are an imbalance between availability and demand, the degradation of water quality, inter-sectoral competition, inter-regional and international conflict and drought. Arab states with a total population of almost 300 million represent five per cent of the globe's 6.3 billion, but they only have access to one per cent of the world's fresh water. This is compared to 20 per cent in one country such as Canada. At the same time, the climate in the Arab region is mainly hyper arid, making it one of the warmest areas in the world. A report by the World Bank in 2005 estimated the total resources of renewable fresh water in Arab countries per year as only 350 billion cubic metres. Thus, the annual fresh water per capita is about 1,000m3, in comparison to an average of 6,500 in Africa; 3,300 in Asia; and 7,600 in the world. The percentage of renewable fresh water per capita in Arab states will sharply drop by 2025 to become only 660m3, giving Saudi Arabia the least share of 50m3 per capita; Libya 55; Yemen 78; Jordan 91; United Arab Emirates 118; Syria 161; Palestine 311; Tunisia 319; Algeria 355; Oman 421; Egypt 645; Morocco 651; and Iraq 2,000m3. Arab countries must draw up a plan to mitigate the future challenges of short water supplies, including the highest population growth rate in the world at three per cent, a rapid growth in domestic and industrial water demands, the increasing cost of water development. There is also the wasteful use of existing water supplies, groundwater over drafting and degradation of irrigated cropland, threats in ecosystems and declining water quality, low rain-fed crop yields, as well as limited arable land. The agriculture sector is the largest consumer of water in Arab countries, at an average of 89 per cent, while it is only 69 per cent globally. At the same time, the domestic sector in the Arab region uses six per cent of the water and the industrial sector consumes the remaining five. Accordingly, agricultural policy must be comprehensively revised to increase water productivity and minimise the volume used in this sector. As in other Arab countries, Egypt's agriculture consumes 88 per cent of fresh water but only contributes 20 per cent of GDP. Increasing water productivity can be achieved by changing land use, revising water management and using more water-efficient techniques. Cultivating crops which consume less water such as fruit, vegetables, wheat, beans, cotton, potatoes and cereal grains is also ideal, especially that they have high added-value because of better water usage. While the added-value per cubic metre of water for rice and sugarcane is as low as LE0.13, sugar beet LE0.35, maize LE0.38, potato LE0.44, but for wheat it's LE0.82 and tomato LE0.88. Moreover, producing one kilogramme of fresh beef consumes 15,000 litres of water, fresh lamb 10,000 litres, fresh poultry 6,000 litres, while it doesn't exceed 1,000 litres to produce one kilogramme of grain, potato, pulses and root crops. Accordingly, Arab countries should import rather than cultivate crops which are major water consumers such as rice, sugar and beef. At the same time, they need to export crops which are more water-efficient to produce such as fruit, vegetable, wheat, potato and tomato. At the same time, poor quality water from agricultural drainage water, treated industrial and sanitary drainage, saline ground and lagoon water should be re-used with an expected yield reduction by only 25 per cent. Finally, Egypt and Arab countries should cooperate with Sudan and sub-Saharan countries which are rich water resources to produce sugarcane, rice, beef and poultry.
