An Arab League plan is being portrayed as Lebanon's last chance, but it has yet to stick, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa left Beirut last week empty-handed after four days of mediation failed to achieve the election of a Lebanese president. At time of writing he was expected to return 17 January, followed by a stop-off in Syria, to gain the agreement of government and opposition to an Arab plan to resolve the political crisis. Moussa has denied that the opposition and Syria are blocking the election of army chief Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's pro-Western ruling bloc charges. Syria has publicly backed the Arab plan, which some analysts say favours the pro- Western side in Lebanon, but made clear that it will not impose it on its allies. International pressure grew this week with fears that the Arab initiative would be tossed on the growing pile of failed mediation attempts in Lebanon. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned that Lebanon would be "lost" if the initiative failed. Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and his 14 March team have strong Western and Arab support and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned this week that Lebanon's dispute might go to the United Nations if the Arab plan failed. "If it's not working with our friends of the Arab League, we will come back to the UN," Kouchner, who was accompanying French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Riyadh, told reporters. "But we hope strongly that it will work," he added. He did not elaborate on how the UN could become involved, but pro-government commentators have started to call for such a move. The UN is already heavily invested in Lebanon, with its beefed-up UNIFIL force in the south, planned international tribunal to investigate the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, and numerous resolutions of the past few years, the most controversial of which, Resolution 1559 of 2004, called for Hizbullah's disarmament. US President George W Bush also upped the ante in the keynote speech of his Middle East tour, accusing Iran of endangering world security by backing militants, including Hizbullah. "Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere. So the United States is strengthening our longstanding security commitments with our friends in the Gulf and rallying friends around the world to confront this danger before it is too late." Talal Suleiman, editor-in-chief of leftist daily As-Safir, said the Lebanese did not need Bush's "impertinent" interference and blamed Washington for the current impasse. "Despite Bush's full record of instigating strife in Lebanon, especially his recent calls for fewer Lebanese MPs to go ahead and elect a president, his insistence on continuing this campaign in an official ceremony and with a written speech and in front of a crowd of officials in the heart of an Arab capital is unacceptable, no matter the excuses or justifications," Suleiman wrote in an editorial. Suleiman was also critical of the "various ambiguous or incomplete Arab initiatives", stating that they "serve only to deepen internal Lebanese divisions so that political disagreements develop into religious and sectarian tensions, making reaching a solution even more difficult." The Arab plan, drawn up by the foreign ministers of Egypt, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Syria calls for the immediate election of Suleiman, as agreed by both sides late last year after pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud left office without a successor chosen on 23 November. It also calls for a unity government, but one that in an unprecedented step gives a swing vote to the president. The opposition, led by Hizbullah, wants a third of cabinet seats to give its ally Michel Aoun more representation, and also to ensure a veto on attempts to disarm it or pursue other US interests in Lebanon. Al-Siniora's ruling bloc rejects such a bar to its decision-making, pointing out that it holds a slim majority in parliament. The final element of the Arab plan is to re-craft the country's contentious election law, ever subject to sectarian tussles. Moussa says he will attempt to restart a drawn- out national dialogue between Lebanon's fractious political and religious leaders that was first launched in March 2006. Lebanese politicians have requested that the five-member Arab ministerial committee that drew up the Arab plan oversee the dialogue this time, if resumed. Al-Akhbar reported Monday that pro-Hizbullah parliament speaker Nabih Berri had suggested holding the dialogue in parliament. Syrian acquiescence to the plan -- although it falls short of giving the opposition the veto- wielding third of cabinet seats it demands -- appears to hinge on the Arab summit. The meeting is to be held in Damascus in March and full, high- level attendance would be taken as a sign that Syria is coming in from the cold after a period of international isolation and tension with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in particular. A parliamentary presidential vote was postponed for the 12th time last week to 21 January. But there is no indication yet it will be 13th time lucky for Lebanon. Sunni Future Movement leader Saad Al-Hariri reportedly refused a proposal to meet Christian opposition leader Aoun last week. That bodes ill for dialogue between the two sides because Berri handed the baton to Aoun in December, charging him with negotiating on behalf of the opposition. The opposition plans a campaign of civil disobedience if the Arab initiative fails. Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir warned in last week's Sunday sermon that wars begin with words and Lebanon might be on the slippery slope to civil war. Repeated attempts at dialogue have stumbled on Lebanon's entrenched existential divisions. Although the withdrawal of six ministers from government last November paralysed the political process, Lebanon first split followed the extension of President Emile Lahoud's term in office under Syrian pressure in 2004. In February the following year, Al-Hariri was assassinated in a bomb attack many in Lebanon and abroad blamed on Syria. Damascus pulled out its troops in May 2005, leaving Lebanon polarised between an anti-Syrian camp backed by the US, France and Saudi Arabia, among others, and opponents led by Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah, who feared Lebanon would now be tethered to the West and US diktat. Israel's July 2006 bombardment of Lebanon pushed internal tensions to breaking point, with Hizbullah slamming the government for maintaining strong ties with Washington despite the latter's support for Israel and rejection of calls for a ceasefire.
