The CIC may be down but not out, writes Gamal Nkrumah The context is just about all. The militias affiliated to the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) stormed the southwestern Somali town of Dinsoor, dislodging the Somali government forces and, according to the Somali authorities, held the town for three hours. It is not clear who is in charge of Dinsoor at the moment. The crux of the matter is that the ghost of the CIC still haunts Somalia. All this points to drawn-out, bloody and acrimonious battles ahead. Overrunning Dinsoor was a setback for the Somali authorities. However, to call it a massive upset would be a bit of an exaggeration. The problem in Somalia is not merely a security or military one, it is one of political chaos and the country is as far from being a constitutional democracy as ever. This performance by CIC militias in Dinsoor is particularly remarkable considering where the CIC have come from. The CIC militias have been routed by the Somali government forces and their Ethiopian backers. There are an estimated 20,000 Ethiopian troops stationed in Somalia under the auspices of the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union (AU). The leaders of the CIC cannot be dismissed as dangerous windbags or paper tigers. They exude an air of serious- minded competence, much to the chagrin of the Somali authorities. This week, they have proved beyond doubt that they are a force to be reckoned with. In Somali politics, events occur with either disconcerting suddenness or excruciating sluggishness. This week's attack by the CIC militias was a surprisingly swift affair. The Chairman of the CIC Sherif Sheikh Ahmed wrote reconciliatory letters to the United Nations, the United States and the European Union disclaiming any association to Al-Qaeda. Western nations, however, are highly suspicious of some of the CIC leaders such as Sheikh Hassan Dhaher Aweis, who they allege has links to Al-Qaeda. The ailing Somali President Abdullah Youssef had returned home from a trip abroad to recuperate from an unspecified illness. There are doubts about his ability to run the country in his present state of health. All this may explain some strangely conciliatory noises now coming from the president's camp. There is talk of offering the Islamist sympathisers the chairs of some parliamentary committees, but not the much coveted parliamentary speakership. But President Youssef is too shrewd an operator to be counted out yet. Somalia is a country where shock and awe is commonplace. Horn of Africa pundits are still probing the entrails of Somali politics for guidance. Bloody events in neighbouring Kenya have hit the headlines, relegating Somali news to the sidelines. But, there is a great deal of interest still in the political fortunes and failures of strategically-located Somalia. Despite the follies and the foibles of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), it is the government recognised by most of the country's neighbours. Youssef is distrusted by many Somali warlords and the Muslim clergy in general as an Ethiopian puppet. The Somali authorities and their Ethiopian backers are gearing up to use the next few weeks to undermine the political and military credentials of the CIC. They have urged Western and Arab governments not to be fooled by the reconciliatory letters of the CIC, especially so-called moderate leaders like the CIC chairman. The CIC claim that the Somali government's legitimacy is in shreds. The CIC lost the key strategic southern Somali port city of Kismayo in 2007. Kismayo was their last stronghold, and ever since, Ethiopian troops and the TFG and allied militias took control of all major cities in the country, including the capital Mogadishu. Dinsoor represents a new hiatus for the CIC. This was its first big break inside Somalia since they were ousted from power by the Ethiopian troops and Somali forces loyal to the TFG. For the CIC this is the very first step on the ladder to a return to power in Somalia. Despite the legacy of cynicism, Somalis are yearning for peace and security in the face of the fast deteriorating humanitarian situation. Western powers, however, are wary of the CIC. Fazul Abdullah Mohamed, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan and Abu Taha Al-Sudani, three suspected leading Al-Qaeda members who ostensibly masterminded the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, are still on the run in Somalia as far as the Ethiopian, Kenyan and US intelligence are concerned. Nabhan is accused of involvement in the November 2002 unsuccessful attempt to shoot down an Israeli chartered tourist plane at Moi international airport in Mombasa, Kenya. Al-Sudani allegedly plotted to attack the Combined Joint Task Force, the US military base in Djibouti, in 2006. Western charges about supposed Al-Qaeda membership must be taken with a grain of salt. Mohamed was regarded as a hero of the battle of Ras Kamboni January 2007, the last stand of the CIC in Somalia, and may have been killed there. Mohamed's wife and children were seized while crossing the border into Kenya. Al-Sudani was targeted by a US air strike on Ras Kamboni in 2007 that killed 70 civilians which he apparently survived, though Time reported last year that he was later killed.
