The Damascus summit might end up just another tired Arab meeting, or maybe not, Dina Ezzat reports Today, Arab banners should start to dot the roads of Damascus in anticipation of the Arab summit to be inaugurated and chaired 29 March by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Damascus said this week that all logistical preparations had been completed for the top Arab congregation that Syria is hosting in line with the order of the alphabetically rotated presidency. The much-heated debate of the past few weeks over the participation or otherwise of key Arab League member states is also all but settled. Saudi Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdul-Aziz ended speculation Monday over his country's participation. "Saudi Arabia would not give up on an Arab summit," he said. The level of participation is still to be decided, he added. Saudi sources tell Al-Ahram Weekly that the participation of the Saudi monarch "would be very difficult" in view of the continued "failure" of Syria to live up to the wide Arab demand for it to convince its allies in the Lebanese opposition to agree on the over-due election of a Lebanese president prior to their agreement with the Lebanese majority on power sharing and government seats. According to the source, the maximum level of representation that Saudi Arabia might condone in view of the current situation is the attendance of the Saudi foreign minister. The absence of the Saudi monarch, were that scenario to follow, would be particularly sensitive, not just due to his political weight but also because of the fact that he is the outgoing chair who should hand over the presidency to Al-Assad. Protocol advisors at the Arab League say that it is possible for the secretary-general to simply announce the handover without the actual handshake between outgoing and incoming chairs of the Arab summits. "It happened before in the Tunis summit when the monarch of Bahrain was not present for the handover," said one expert. Egypt is also planning a "participation of sorts". Well-informed Egyptian officials say that President Hosni Mubarak is not planning to go to Damascus "so far", unless a Lebanese president is elected before the summit, "and this looks increasingly unlikely." According to the same source, it is unlikely that Mubarak will even send his prime minister to chair the Egyptian delegation to the summit. Most probably, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit would represent Egypt. It is the participation of Lebanon that remains in question at this time. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa had affirmed the full participation of all member states upon their due invitation. According to repeated statements, this applies to Lebanon too. On the ground, however, the situation is unclear. Syria has yet to extend its invitation to Lebanon. Arab sources say that the Syrian permanent representative to the Arab League would most likely hand the invitation to Moussa for him to pass to the Lebanese permanent representative. Absent a Lebanese president, majority leader Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora -- opposed politically to Damascus -- is charged with all presidential duties. "There has been an effort to convince Al-Assad to envoy a low-level delegation to Lebanon [for the sake of formalities] but this has not been very successful," commented one informed source. Egyptian and Saudi sources alike say that both leading Arab countries decided that they did not want to push things to the limit by boycotting the summit in protest at what they perceive as negative Syrian influence in Lebanon. Sources add that Cairo and Riyadh concluded that a decision to boycott would not help the situation in Lebanon -- rather the opposite; it could trigger a harsher Syrian intransigence. Meanwhile, debate is intense in Lebanon on who should represent the country and whether or not Lebanon should take part if the Syrian chair fails to send a delegation to Beirut. Arab League sources say the Arab League secretariat is exerting maximum political efforts to ensure that the invitation from Syria is appropriately extended and duly accepted. "It is not in the interest of Lebanon to absent itself from the summit even if it convenes under harsh political differences between the Syrian and Lebanese [regimes] and even if it convenes prior to the election of a Lebanese president," commented one source on condition of anonymity. According to this source, the Arab League is confident that the Lebanese delegation would be received and treated in accordance with "adequate" protocol. For many Arab diplomats, it is not the participation, or lack thereof, of any particular Arab country that matters most. What matters is what this summit could produce in terms of regional polarisation between two regional axes: that of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and that of Syria and Iran. The aggravation of such existing polarisation could affect all items on the agenda of the summit, especially the Arab-Israeli struggle and political developments in Lebanon. "We are going to the Arab summit with Syria being a clear and all but declared ally of Iran in confrontation with leading Arab states, including former allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia," commented a senior Arab diplomat who asked for his name to be withheld. He added, "the question is whether or not we will go out of the summit with this situation emphasised or contained." Syrian sources say that Damascus is willing to work to make this year's Arab summit an opportunity for mending fences, especially with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, "but not at any price". As far as Damascus is concerned, there are certain basic foreign policy guidelines it is not willing to compromise. Its "close cooperation" with Iran is one thing it is not giving up on. For Syria, Iran is a strong ally in face of an Arab world geared against it by the US and "in favour of Israel". In press statements made during a visit to Cairo earlier this week, US Undersecretary of State David Welch openly and affirmatively attacked Damascus for being an opponent of peace and a supporter of extremist groups in the region. Judging by the atmosphere during an Arab foreign ministers meeting that convened Wednesday at the Arab League, the general trend seems one of containment rather than confrontation. "The Damascus summit is unlikely to witness an all-out showdown between the two groups. That was not the mood during the ministerial meeting," commented one source. According to this source, "the mood now is one of putting the confrontation on hold." Indeed, informed sources tell the Weekly that Syria has offered assurances that it does not intend to use the Arab summit as opportunity to apply hardline political positions, especially on matters like the fate of the Arab-Israeli conflict. During the recent Arab foreign ministers meeting there was agreement between Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal and Syrian counterpart Walid Al-Moallem that Arabs cannot continue pursuing a peaceful settlement when Israel is not reciprocating. "But Syria will not, for example, insist that the [Arab peace] initiative be pulled out if there is no collective Arab agreement on such a decision," commented one Arab source. He added that the maximum that Syria would do is to opt for firmer language to be adopted by the Arab summit. Tellingly, it was Moussa and not Al-Moallem who made the firmer statements on the fate of the Arab peace initiative in the wake of the Arab ministerial meeting late last week. "We are going to revise the strategy adopted by Arab countries on the peace process," Moussa said. And earlier this week, it was also Moussa who spoke of the seemingly inevitable "collapse" of the Annapolis process. On other fronts, including the situations in Iraq, Darfur and Somalia, the Damascus summit is not set to break the tradition of adopting consensual resolutions that tend to take a general stance and that do not upset ruling regimes, nor directly support them. Developments on the ground may change things for the Damascus summit, however. If calm prevails, business as usual appears the motto for Arab states. If something breaks, that intention may break with it.
