In Focus: Another hot summer? Whether war on Iran happens or not, tensions in the region are rising to breaking point, writes Galal Nassar Warnings of war have become all too common of late. Arab League chief Amr Moussa warned of a "hot summer", hinting that Lebanon would be the most likely scene of hostilities. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak warned Hizbullah against any provocations, promising that hostilities may erupt "suddenly and without warning". Meanwhile, the Israeli army is conducting one of the largest military drills in recent years on the borders with Lebanon and Syria. The news agency Novosti cited a senior Russian source as saying that, "feverish US preparations" are underway for war on Iran. In an article published a few days ago, Paul Craig Roberts, assistant secretary of the treasury in the Reagan administration, said that the American Congress, media and people are blissfully ignorant of the preparations Dick Cheney is making for war. If the predictions are true, open hostilities may erupt anywhere in Iran, Syria, Lebanon and/or Palestine before long -- most likely after Israel celebrates its 60th birthday in mid-May. Dick Cheney is already working on it, and President Bush will only have to sign the orders. Why would anyone want another military confrontation in this region? The Israelis and Americans have their reasons. The Israelis want to rehabilitate the reputation of their "invincible" army following the humiliation of summer 2006. Also, the Israelis are worried about Iran's nuclear programme and want to do something about it. Even better, have the Americans do it on their behalf. The US is also worried. The last thing Washington wants to see is a strong and nuclear-armed Iran challenging US strategic and economic interests in the region. Cheney and his neo- conservatives have a grudge against Iran, mainly because of the successes of the resistance in Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq. Furthermore, Bush will want to get the job done before he leaves office, for his successor is not likely to favour another military adventure abroad -- not after Iraq. But the US is not exactly ready for war. Battered by the $1 trillion spent in Iraq, the US economy is too weak to support another war. Bush and Cheney should not be thinking of war, but they are. Why? One reason is that they believe that Iran lacks any sophisticated defences that can stand up to US military firepower. There is, therefore, a chance that US forces would be able to put out of action Iranian missiles before they are launched. The US has already deployed anti-missile batteries to protect its Gulf military bases and oil fields. Furthermore, Bush has nothing to lose now that his months in office are numbered. The American public hasn't been adequately mobilised against the war, perhaps because it seems unlikely. So there is every chance for the Bush administration to launch a lightening strike against Iran in the hope of destroying the latter's military infrastructure, industrial capabilities, and nuclear installations within a few hours. And yet again, it may all be a war of words and no more. Some pundits say that the Americans and Israelis are more interested in intimidating Iran and Syria than in real war. That's quite possible, if you ask me, if only because the Arabs and Iranians have proved themselves to be more tenacious in battle than anyone had expected. Also, a war on Iran would lead to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. That would be a big blow for oil importers in Europe and Japan. The Arabs should watch out though. War or no war, they are the ones who stand to lose most. If it were war, the fallout both in material and human terms would be devastating for Arab countries. If it's not war, rivalry between the Americans, Israelis and Iranians may tear the region apart.
