While uncertainty pertains as to who will dominate the 21st century, increasingly it appears that Latin America will lead the 22nd, writes Gamil Matar* There are several instances of centuries-old prophecies of the rise of certain countries that people in those times felt possessed enormous latent power. Military leaders, politicians and travellers of the European renaissance foresaw such a possibility for China and they held that when the Chinese dragon did rise, other nations would be struck dumb with awe and wonder. In a subsequent era, merchants and mariners from North America and Western Europe predicted the rise of Japan and warned of its effects on international and regional peace. Japan rose and its first acts outside its territory were to attack "the white man", represented by Imperial Russia, and to wage war on China in order to secure natural resources. It was not long before it plunged into World War II aiming to obtain its fair share of overseas colonies and affirming its intent to control Asia, or at the very least the southeast portion of that continent. Europe experienced a century of turmoil upon the fulfilment of the prophecy by some great European commanders that Germany would unify and that a unified Germany would throw the European power balances off kilter until alliances were forged in order to check the pace and clip the wings of the German resurrection. Sure enough, the prophecy played itself out in two world wars in which an emergent, unified Germany was a central protagonist. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, unification prevailed over secession after the gruelling American Civil War. British leaders were certain of a subsequent American revival that would bear fruit in territorial expansion into Central and South America and the Philippines. They felt that it was in Britain's interest to promote the rise of that new empire in the interests of preserving the international balance of power that Britain at the time controlled. Today, reports and commentaries are emerging from diverse sources in Latin America and elsewhere remarking on that continent's firm and rapid strides upwards. Yet while some forecasts place South American nations at the forefront of the international order of the future, none that I have read include cautions similar to those that accompanied predictions of the rises of China, Japan, Germany and the US. At the same time, I imagine that most of us will remain incredulous and unwilling to picture the possibility of a unification and rise of Latin America. In this, we would be behaving like our ancestors with regards to prophecies on China and Japan. Nevertheless, scepticism over the rise and unification of Latin America is not without foundation. Many of us have witnessed first hand the experiences of despotism, which had virtually become a byword for Latin American government. Others followed with concern the succession of military coups in this country or that on the continent. I personally saw three. I woke up one morning to the news of one coup. I spent another night in bed expecting a third to take place at dawn, having heard of preparations from friends in the know. I was taken completely by surprise by a third coup when I was on my way to work one day. For the peoples of Latin America it was normal to live a good part of their lives under military rule. What was abnormal was to live under governments that came to power through free elections. But now I and many others have come to wonder whether military coups are a phenomenon of the past for Latin America. Have the generals willingly and permanently resigned themselves to subordination to civil authorities? Are they truly convinced of the need to honour and uphold normal constitutional life, and to abide by the law? Have human rights taken hold there and set into motion new conventions? It seems that the answer to these questions is yes. Over the past 30 years, Latin America has made enormous progress in the transition to democracy and the creation of strong civil societies in which domestic security agencies and personnel play by civilised rules and the respect of human rights, and in which the courts have regained their autonomy and prestige. On the other hand, Western attitudes and views on Latin America feature a strong current of satire and farcical stereotypes. The European and US media have implanted in their audiences' minds the picture of the sombrero-covered Mexican dozing beneath the scorching sun and other such images of laziness and idleness. They have also spread the image of the Latin American policeman who is no more energetic, whose face is adorned by a huge and carefully groomed moustache, and sports a fly swatter to whisk away flies and children. It would be no exaggeration to say that these images on the whole belong to a "forgotten" continent. It has been said -- rightfully, I believe -- that Latin America was even less fortunate than Africa. Africa, as we know, has been systematically plundered for its natural and its human resources. However, apart from the plunder of its human resources, that process only began in the 19th century. With Latin America, it began five centuries ago. South America to the European coloniser was "Eldorado" -- literally the land of gold. In fact, you would be hard put to find a Latin American country without at least one town, or river, or lake, or mountain carrying that name, or La Plata, or one of their derivatives. South America was stripped of its resources and driven towards poverty as Europe grew rich, yet the legacy of wealth lives on in its cultural heritage. A prominent business magnate from the Arab community in Argentina once related to me his long and arduous journey from Beirut to Buenos Aires by way of Marseilles. What kept him going through all that hardship was the stories he had heard back home, in Lebanon, about the Argentinean capital whose streets were paved in pure silver. To the sceptics on the prophecies for Latin America's rise and unifications, the optimists reply that the "new" Latin America is self-confident, contrary to familiar images we have received through negative stereotyping. At least, virtually all Latin American countries today can boast of governments that came to power through free and fair democratic elections. Some of these governments might not come up to scratch to the European definition of a liberal democracy; however, even these follow the rules and procedures of democratic elections in order to prove their legitimacy in the eyes of those that take pride in their liberalism and seek to spread it. Latin American peoples can also boast of having subordinated their religious authority, not just their military authority, to democratically elected civil authorities that are responsible to the people. Religion undoubtedly continues to occupy a special and revered position in the minds and hearts off the Latin American people. However, thanks to the efforts of civil society, the spread of education and the entrenchment of the principle of freedom of thought and choice, it was possible to politically "neutralise" the religious establishment and its various agencies and activities, and to restore it to a position where it receives the respect and protection of the political authorities, and can simultaneously enjoy the right to communicate openly and directly with the practitioners of the faith. Experts on Latin American affairs from that continent and abroad will readily tell you how great a part a large segment of the clergy played in the transition to democracy and the rebellion against despotism and military rule, especially when they forged an alliance with the intelligentsia against the combined power of wealth and the juntas. In other words, the church performed its national duty to the people, and withdrew from the political fray once the people took charge of the management of their own affairs. The peoples of Latin America have certainly far outstripped the peoples of Africa and the Arab region in the process of democratisation. Indeed, Arab and African countries are showing alarming signs of regression, whereas South American countries give all indications of strong and healthy progress. Countries that had lived under monarchies and dictatorships for centuries now enjoy the blessings of democracy and the democratic value system. In addition, in Bolivia, Paraguay, Ecuador, the countries of the Caribbean, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and elsewhere, the people have made huge social and economic advances, to which testify much higher standards of living and better qualities of life. The prophecies for China, Germany, Japan and the US came true. Many are now making similar prophecies for Latin America. Some are so convinced that the prediction will come true that they have already dubbed the 22nd century the Latin American century. I happen to agree. I rest my optimism on three factors that merit more extensive discussion on another occasion. The first is the phenomenon of Brazil, which is racing to meet the conditions necessary to assume responsibility of leading the Latin American peoples. The second is demographic changes in the US, where citizens of Latin American origin are expected to become the majority by 2040, while those of Anglo-Saxon roots will have dropped to 30 per cent of the populace. If that demographic trend continues, by the end of the century the Western hemisphere will be overwhelmingly Latin American in culture and dark in complexion. The third factor is steady and continuous increase in economic growth rates throughout most parts of Latin America and the concomitant increase in higher educational enrolment rates. This, together with the diversification in energy resources, will propel Latin America faster and faster into the age of electronic technology. Countries around the world have coalesced from fragments into unified wholes, and they have taken heart from prophecies encouraging them to progress and to help shape the future of mankind. Unfortunately, governments in the African and Arab worlds remain remote from transformations in the arts of unification and renaissance, while our elites and our accomplishments remain incapable of penetrating the imaginations of those who manufacture visions of the future. * The writer is director of the Arab Centre for Development and Futuristic Research
