Fearing the increasing Iranian influence in Iraq, Sunni Arab states say they will dispatch ambassadors to Baghdad, writes Saif Nasrawi Last week during a surprise visit to Baghdad the United Arab Emirates' foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan announced that the Arab Gulf nation will name an ambassador to Baghdad in the coming days to become the first Arab country to restore full diplomatic ties to Iraq following the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime. A similar move was declared in Manama when Bahrain's Foreign Minister Khaled bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa said on Sunday that the tiny Gulf state is to appoint an ambassador to Iraq, following strong US pressure for Arab countries to play a bigger political role in the war- torn nation to counter Iranian influence and promote reconciliation between Iraq's rival Sunni and Shia communities. On Monday, Jordan also said that it will dispatch an envoy to Iraq, nearly five years after a truck bomb exploded outside the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad killing 17 people. Many of the Middle East's Sunni-led governments have been wary of establishing a full diplomatic presence in Baghdad because of security fears and mistrust of the Shia-led government's ties to Iran, which has a fully accredited ambassador there. "We will hold talks to name the ambassador in the coming few days,'' Al-Nahyan said. "We also hope that as soon as possible, and I am talking here about a few weeks, we will see an active Emirates embassy in Baghdad." He also stressed that "the time has come" for Arab countries "to forge strong ties with Iraq". Bahrain and Jordan said they had already selected sites in Baghdad for their new embassies, adding, however, that the specific date for the return of the ambassadors has not been settled yet because security conditions in Iraq remained unstable. US and Iraqi officials praised these decisions and hoped all Arab governments would follow suit. "This reflects, I think, an appreciation on the part of the Arabs that things are different in Iraq, both in security terms and in political terms," the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, told reporters in Washington. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said on Tuesday that Arab states have been encouraged by the recent security developments in Iraq, referring probably to the successful crackdown on Shia militias by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki. "All [Arab states] are increasingly feeling the real improvement in security conditions and the genuine government's plans to push further political reconciliation to ensure the greatest participation of all Iraqis in the decision-making process," Zebari said. He added that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are also considering sending ambassadors to Iraq soon. However, the Arabs' steps to restore full diplomatic ties with Iraq have less to do with the conviction, widely projected by US and Iraqi officials, that Al-Maliki's government is gradually becoming more sectarian inclusive. Rather, regional heavyweights especially Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan are more concerned with counterbalancing the influence of Iran and preparing for a possible US military pullout from Iraq. Mohamed Abdul-Salam, an analyst with the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said that Arab states are seeking to establish a stronger leverage inside Iraq vis-à-vis the Iranians. "Arab governments are trying to increase their influence in Iraq especially now that Washington and Baghdad are negotiating a new security agreement that may lead to a reduction in US military presence in Iraq," Abdul-Salam said. He added that Arab capitals are seriously contemplating the possibility that Democrat Barack Obama might be the next US president which would dramatically change American policy in the Middle East. "There is a wide belief among Arab political circles that Obama will win the November presidential elections and eventually fulfil his promises to sharply reduce US troop levels in Iraq. Arabs don't want Tehran to fill the political and security vacuum there," he stressed. The Illinois senator has repeatedly assured the public that he would withdraw US troops within 16 months of taking office in January 2009. He has also announced that he would take a softer tone towards Iran, arguing that diplomacy is a better option to contain Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Tariq Al-Homayed, the editor-in-chief of the leading Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat described the Arab stance towards Iraq as "negligence". Al-Homayed warned Arab nations last week that, "Iraq cannot be left for Iran to transform it into a theatre stage, and then be satisfied with laying the entire blame on the Iraqi government." He added that, "Arab presence in Baghdad means communicating and knowing what the truth on the ground really is. When Arab ambassadors go to Baghdad, they will be shocked at what the Iranians have been doing there. Therefore, it is a mistake to abandon Iraq, no matter what the security circumstances are." The absence of fully accredited Arab ambassadors in Baghdad reflects the complex and ambivalent relationship between Iraq and the rest of the Arab world since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam's regime in 2003. Most Arab governments sent diplomats to Baghdad following Saddam's fall but refused to establish high-level relations to avoid the appearance that they endorsed foreign military occupation of an Arab country. The Arabs softened their stand after an elected Iraqi government took power in 2005. But Sunni militant groups, especially Al-Qaeda in Iraq, warned Arab states not to open embassies, a move the extremists feared would bolster the Iraqi government and its US backers. Despite the threat, Egypt dispatched a high- ranking diplomat to head its mission, and Iraqi officials said he would be accredited as the first Arab ambassador since Saddam's ouster. But the envoy was kidnapped and murdered in July 2005. Diplomats from Algeria, Morocco, Bahrain, the UAE and Sudan were either killed, wounded or kidnapped in a series of attacks, some of which were claimed by Al-Qaeda. Arab reluctance to send ambassadors to Iraq due to the lack of security, however, has been diminishing recently, Iraqi officials said. A senior Iraqi official familiar with the ongoing talks between Baghdad and its Arab neighbours said that various Sunni Iraqi political and militant groups have been conveying messages to Arab states that they now welcome a stronger Arab diplomatic presence. "During the last months, Sunni leaders, some of them affiliated with insurgent groups, tried to provide security guarantees that Arab diplomats wouldn't be targeted again," the official told Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that Sunni political leaders are now eagerly attempting to convince Arab capitals that Arab diplomatic presence is quite vital to offset Iran's influence. Zebari said on Tuesday that Iraq would do its best to ensure the safety of Arab diplomatic missions by locating them within the US- guarded Green Zone in Baghdad. Counterbalancing Iran's influence by dispatching ambassadors to Baghdad remains, though, a pretty fragile strategy. "Restoring full diplomatic ties is rather a symbolic gesture after all," noted Hassan Abu Talib of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. Abu Talib said Arabs must engage comprehensively in Iraq's political, security, economic and cultural affairs. "Even if Arabs are still sceptical about Al-Maliki's sectarian agenda and his ruling Shia coalition's strong ties to Iran, keeping away from the Iraqi scene would be extremely risky and harmful to their interests."
