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An ever-receding 'breakthrough'
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 07 - 2008

Re-integrating the main Sunni group in the cabinet is not a sufficient condition to heal Iraq's political wounds, writes Saif Nasrawi
Despite his recent successful military campaigns to crack down on the Mahdi Army militias as well as Sunni insurgent groups in southern and northern Iraq, several contentious political challenges await Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki before he can claim a breakthrough in the war-torn nation. These challenges include broadening the political process, improving the security forces, signing the joint Iraqi-US security pact, and holding local council elections. However, given Iraq's complex reality, tackling one problem can lead to an even worse one.
Capitalising on his success in beginning to dismantle the Mahdi Army militia cells in Baghdad and Shia- dominated southern Iraq, Al-Maliki's government managed this week to convince the Iraqi Accord Front (IAF), the main Sunni block in the parliament which has boycotted his government last year, to return to the cabinet.
Adnan Al-Dulaimi, a leading member in the IAF said on Monday that the front had reached an agreement with Al-Maliki on a new list of candidates to fill its share of the six ministerial positions which were vacant since August 2007, when the Sunni block walked out in protest against sectarian policies adopted by the government. He added that the front, which has 44 of the 275 parliament seats, is expected to rejoin the cabinet by next week "to back the government under these [difficult] conditions."
Earlier reports suggested that negotiations between the government and the IAF, which kicked off in March, had faced a deadlock due to disagreements on security issues and the release of Sunni Arabs detained without charges. Around 22,000 captives are currently believed to be held by US and Iraqi authorities, the majority of whom have not had any trial.
A senior Iraqi official familiar with the talks said that both parties provided concessions in order to reach a deal. "Al-Maliki agreed to allow the front to have a greater say in the security decision- making process especially when it comes to launching military assaults in Sunni areas," the official told Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that the front, in return, agreed to modify its list of ministerial candidates after reservations by the government on two nominees on the grounds that they had strong links with Sunni insurgent groups.
Notwithstanding the technicalities, the IAF's decision to rejoin the new national Iraqi unity government should be placed in a wider local and regional context. It seems that Al-Maliki's plan was to re- incorporate old friends by joining hands with the IAF to overcome future security and political challenges.
A Sunni Iraqi parliamentary source who declined to be identified said that both Al-Maliki's Shia-led ruling coalition and the IAF were looking to enhance their chances in the coming local elections scheduled in October. "Shia officials want to tighten their security grip on Sunni areas depending on the IAF's bases and networks to tell the Iraqi people that they are capable of maintaining the security gains ahead of the elections," he said. He clarified that the front, on the other hand, is keen to exploit the government's military and financial resources to compete against their growing rival, the Awakening Councils, which have more arms and stronger domestic presence. He said that the IAF had worked hard to veto every proposal presented by Iraqi and US officials to include members of the Awakening Councils in the would-be national unity cabinet.
The isolation of the nearly 103,000 Sunni leaders and fighters of the Awakening Councils, which were created by the Americans last year as part of the Surge, could in part explain the US military's reluctance to transfer the security control to Iraqi forces for Anbar province, a former Sunni Arab insurgent stronghold in the west, which was put off on Saturday.
Both Iraqi and US officials blamed the delay of the security handover to Iraqi forces of Anbar on bad weather. A tumultuous sandstorm was also the reason behind the postponement for Iraqi forces to take over security of the southern province of Diwaniya from the US military, both Iraqi and US officials claimed. "The event was delayed today due to weather. It was not postponed due to any other reason," said US military spokesman Lieutenant David Russell on Monday.
Anbar and Diwaniya were to be the 10th and 11th of Iraq's 18 provinces to be taken over by Iraqi forces since the 2003 invasion.
An Iraqi official said that delay in security handover had less to do with bad weather than with other pressing political controversies between Baghdad and Washington. "The Americans argue that Iraqi forces are still highly divided along sectarian lines and could be easily manipulated by existing powerful political groups, whether Sunnis or Shias, to undermine the security gains by engaging in bitter fighting over local council and government resources," the official told the Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that the Iraqi government believes that the postponement of the security take over is part of American effort to pressure Baghdad to soften its stance regarding the joint Iraq-US security agreement which was due to be signed by late July. Al-Maliki's government still insists that it contains conditions that jeopardise Iraq's sovereignty.
Iraqi and US officials, who began the security talks on March, are still quarrelling over the pivotal issues under negotiation, including the longevity of the agreement, capacity for US troops to carry out military operations and arrests of Iraqis without Baghdad's prior permission, and legal immunity for American troops.
On Sunday, Iraqi officials criticised the American military for two recent attacks in which soldiers killed four people who the government said were civilians.
An Iraqi government statement demanded that the soldiers responsible for such deaths be held accountable, part of Al-Maliki's attempt to increase his leverage on the long-term security agreement negotiations.
In a nut shell, political disenchantment by the Awakenings -- which include many former insurgents, and the possible signing of a security deal with Washington that many Iraqi view as shameful suggest that Iraq's summer might turn to be even hotter than usual.


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