Horse-trading seems to be the major occupation of Lebanese politicians, says Hanady Salman in Beirut Michel Suleiman was sworn in 45 days ago as the 12th president of the Republic of Lebanon after a political crisis that left the presidency seat empty for almost a year and half. Yet, these were days spent without a government. There is only one way to read the delay: preparing the grounds for the upcoming general elections in May 2009. It took 40 days to reach an agreement with the opposition parties over the seats they required, which was later reversed. In fact, it took 40 days, a prisoners' exchange deal between Israel and Hizbullah, and an air of openness between Paris and Damascus. Just as much as filling the presidency seat required a "mini-civil war" that led to an agreement in Doha, sealed by the concerned international players. The ball is now in the camp of the 14 March parties. However, filling the remaining governmental seats is proving to be harder than expected. Or probably, as hard as expected since the mission requires a certain amount of sharing and understanding between allies, and that seems to be lacking the 14 March group. The Doha agreement sealed in May divided the 30 cabinet seats between the major political players in Lebanon, giving the president of the republic the right to name three ministers: defence, interior and a minister of state. The opposition was given 11 ministers and the rest of the cake was to be shared between the components of the 14 March coalition. The main political players in the country decided that there are two kinds of ministries: one that provides services (crucial in a pre- electoral year) and one that pertains to sovereignty such as the defence, interior or foreign ministries. Those ministries were needed for political influence. There was no problem in dividing the seats between the members of the opposition parties among themselves; namely, Hizbullah, the Amal Movement headed by Speaker Nabih Berri, the Free Patriotic Movement headed by Michel Aoun and a number of other small parties. The major obstacle was the number of seats Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora was willing to give to the opposition. For Aoun, what he will get was crucial in deciding the results of the next general election. Here's how this country chooses its MPs: each is chosen along sectarian lines. Sunni Muslims choose Sunni Muslim MPs, Druze do the same and so on for all the rest. The electoral law of 1960 agreed upon in Doha seals the deal: each region (i.e. religion) chooses its own people. In this case, everybody's share is guaranteed except for that of the Christians. Nobody will challenge Walid Jumblatt's political influence in the Druze Mountains, and his party's seats in parliament are guaranteed. In the South, in the eastern Bekaa, and in the southern suburb (predominantly Shia regions), there are no opponents to Hizbullah and its major ally, the Amal Movement. Saad Al-Hariri will get at least 25 seats from Beirut, the north, and the western Bekaa (Sunni areas). Hence, there will be no electoral confrontations on the Muslim scene. The major electoral campaign will be among the Christians. And that will be a crucial "battle" since its outcome will decide the whole political scene in the four years that follow the elections. The two main opponents are the pro- opposition Free Patriotic Movement (the opposition Christians), and pro-Hariri (so far) Lebanese Forces (the Christians of today's majority). The movement, headed by Michel Aoun, had a surprise victory in the elections of the year 2005. Its alliance with the Popular Group of Zahle, lea by MP Elias Skaff, and the Armenian Tachnag Party led to the creation of the "Change and Reform" group that includes 21 MPs representing the regions of Zahle (Bekaa), Metn, Kesrouan and Jbeil. The Lebanese Forces Party, on the other hand, due to its alliance with both Al-Hariri and Jumblatt, and thanks to the electoral law used in 2005, managed to get five MPs, one of them in the Druze mountain (on Jumblatt's list), and four from the north, who had run on Al-Hariri's list. Late last week, Al-Siniora reached an agreement with the opposition, by which Aoun's group will get five cabinet seats (agriculture, communication, power, social affairs and the vice-president of the prime minister), whereas Amal and Hizbullah will get the ministries of foreign affairs, industry, health, work, youth and sports and a state minister. What's left today is the share of the majority. Sixteen seats are to be filled by the different components of the mosaic called the 14 March coalition. Suddenly, the not so hidden differences came to surface: the Lebanese forces say they want as big a share as Aoun's. So in this case, what would be left to their Christian bigger "ally", the Kataeb? And what do the other 14 March Christians (close to the Maronite Patriarch) get? On top of all that, Jumblatt is requesting the right to name a Catholic Christian, a Shia, and two Druzes, and refuses to let the Ministry of Roads go to anyone outside his group. And then, there is a mini-battle ongoing between Al-Hariri and Al-Siniora on naming Sunni ministers. Al-Hariri wants the upper hand in naming all the Sunni ministers, and a Christian one, too. This leaves no room for any Sunni minister to be named by the Sunni prime minister himself. Sixteen seats to be filled, including six Sunnis, seven Christians, two Druzes, and one Shia. The Republic of Lebanon is waiting for the 14 March group to agree among themselves. The president of the Republic of Lebanon has to be in Paris on 12 July -- the second anniversary of the July war with Israel -- on an official visit to the Mediterranean union summit where he will meet with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Will he go as a president without a government?
