While Israel appears the beneficiary of US interests in the Middle East region, its place is ultimately as one pillar under a US strategic umbrella, writes Galal Nassar During his visit to the US last month, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak announced that Washington would soon link Israel to two advanced missile detection systems that would strengthen Israel's preparedness against any Iranian threat. Following his meeting with US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Barak also announced that Israel and the US were at an advanced stage in talks on upgrading Israel's Arrow-II ballistic shield, though they disagreed over whether it should incorporate an American interceptor missile. He told reporters that Washington would also increase Israel's access to its Defence Support Programme (DPS) satellites that can detect missile launches, adding that the US and Israeli governments "see eye to eye on the need to keep all options on the table, though we may not agree on each and every detail. It's important the Americans understand our position, and I think that they understand it a lot better after this visit." The Pentagon has also agreed to install a powerful radar system in Israel in the coming months. Israeli officials described the system as capable of tracking an object the size of a baseball from about 4,700 kilometres away; it would enable Arrow to engage an Iranian Shehab-3 ballistic missile about halfway through what would be its 11 minute flight to Israel. According to Al-Ahram Weekly sources, after heavy pressure on the part of the Israeli defence minister, Washington agreed to include Israel in the US global satellite defence system, capable of spotting missile launches on a constant rather than per-request basis. They also said that Israel has been seeking assurances of logistical support from Washington in the event that the Israeli army is forced to launch an assault. In addition, Washington will help finance and upgrade the Iron Dome antiballistic shield, which will strengthen Israel's protection against Qassam missiles, and it will also finance a new phase in the Arrow project. The new Arrow III antiballistic system would be capable of shooting down missiles at greater atmospheric heights. Informed sources told the Weekly that all these secret talks, arrangements and agreements ultimately aim to include Israel in the American missile shield. The following attempts to substantiate this on the basis of developments that occurred over the past few months. THE US EMERGENCY PLAN: When Israel obtained the US-made Theatre High Altitude Area Defence System (THAAD) recently, people began to wonder whether this was a prelude to assimilating Israel into the US antiballistics defence umbrella, which has become a major bone of contention between the US and Russia. Tensions between Moscow and Washington recently intensified over this issue when the latter revealed that it planned to install some of the system's components in areas near the Russian border (the X-Band radar system in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missile launching pads in Poland). Russian officials protested that these plans threaten to revive the Cold War. One of the major focuses of the joint US-Israeli military manoeuvres in March 2007 was on how to protect Israeli air space from a potential missile assault carrying unconventional (nuclear, chemical or biological) warheads fired by Iran, Syria or Hizbullah, separately or simultaneously. The manoeuvres took place at a time of heightened speculation over an immanent US or Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear installations which would probably trigger Iranian retaliatory missile strikes against Israel. Also at the time there were fears of an outbreak of hostilities between Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights where Israel had recently staged massive military manoeuvres. The joint US-Israeli manoeuvres, codenamed Juniper Cobra, brought together Israel's air defence artillery brigade and the US army corps' 69th air defence artillery brigade. The exercises were conducted using computer simulated missile attack scenarios, due to the logistical situation following Israel's 2006 war on Lebanon and the redeployment of US forces. The next Juniper Cobra exercise in 2009 will be conducted using live-fire missiles. The focus of the exercise was to integrate the use of the US army's Patriot missiles and the Israeli army's Arrow missile defence system, each of which is designed to intercept missiles at different altitudes. Also, for the first time, the exercise included the THAAD system. The purpose of the manoeuvres was to test how Israeli antiballistic systems would respond in the event of a missile attack, as well as the interoperable capacities of the communications, command and control systems of the two countries in the event of a missile threat from a hostile country in the Middle Eastern region. Major Peggy Kageleiry, US army public affairs officer for Juniper Cobra 2007, said that despite the limitations of 2007's exercise, the computer simulation proved valuable in advancing the primary purpose of Juniper Cobra, which is to improve the allies' ability to cooperate against common threats. "The more we train together and exchange ideas, the readier we'll be in any future scenario that may require joint or coalition operations," she said. She explained that these manoeuvres are part of an American emergency plan to defend Israel from missile attacks that involves combining the medium- and long-range antiballistic defence systems of both countries. THE WORLD'S BEST SHIELD: THAAD is now a key component of America's global Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system aimed to provide area-wide protection for American forces, fleets and bases in such regions as the Middle East, the Gulf, Central and Southern Asia, and Southeast and Eastern Asia. It is not to be confused with the National Missile Defence (NMD) system that is meant to furnish global protection for the US mainland. Washington has already put components of its TMD system in place in Alaska, Britain, Norway, Denmark and, more recently, the Czech Republic and Poland. Hungary and Bulgaria are soon to come. The idea is to erect missile defence shields around Russia and around China and North Korea. THAAD was introduced to furnish more extensive coverage for American military locations, population centres and strategic targets and was designed to intercept missiles with ranges from 100 to 2,000 kilometres and at altitudes of 150 kilometres. One of the advantages of this system is its ability to down enemy missiles in the final phases of its flight before they can reach their targets. It also reduces the number of missiles needed to engage low altitude targets. It is little wonder that Israel was keen to obtain this system following its war on Lebanon in July-August 2006 during which Hizbullah fired dozens of low- altitude Katyusha missiles across the border onto Israeli towns and settlements without Israeli forces being able to intercept them. The THAAD system consists of a mobile missile launcher that fires interceptor missiles equipped with computerised sensors capable of differentiating between real and hostile targets. It also depends on ground/air transportable radar linked with a command and control centre, which gives the entire system unprecedented manoeuvrability. A THAAD battery could consist of three to six missiles each capable of carrying six to eight interceptors. The Pentagon hopes to complete deployment of this system in various parts of the world by the end of the year. The costs from research and development to full deployment will exceed $23 billion over a 20-year period. The system has been put through more than 30 test trials, in light of which refinements have been made to the small explosive warhead fitted onto THAAD missiles. The Ballistic Missile Defence Organisation (BMDO) believes that THAAD is the only system capable of forming the heart of a theatre of operations missile defence system. When it is fully deployed, it says, it will be able to contend with all ballistic missile threats both within and outside of the earth's atmosphere. This will apply in particular if deployed within the framework of a comprehensive plan that brings onboard the advanced Patriot (Pac-3) missile, which Israel also has its eye on. With THAAD, the Patriot system, and its own Arrow system, Israel, together with the US, will have the most sophisticated antiballistic defence system in the world. INCLUDING ISRAEL: On 17 May, the US House of Representatives approved an allocations bill of $25 million to continue to produce and upgrade Arrow, the US-funded missiles that Israel produces using American "star wars" technology in the framework of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Under this programme, the US army is entitled to a quota of the product that comes off the Israeli assembly line in order to add it to the American system. Another $135 million was approved for the purchase of THAAD, plus $1 million for continuing the development of the antiballistic missile system -- known as David's Sling -- that is under development for countering projectiles such as Hizbullah's Katyusha rockets. Israeli military officials told the Debka website ( www.debka.com.il ) that the US and Israeli systems will be fully integrated by 2013, towards which end the US will invest an additional $1 billion on top of the $2.8 billion it has already invested. On 19 May 2007, then-Israeli defence minister Amir Peretz stated that he hoped that David's Sling would be ready in two years. In other words, until at least 2010, Israel will remain unprotected from Hizbullah's Katyushas, Hamas's Qassam missiles and mortar attack. On the other hand, Israel will be armed with the most superior shield available for fending off Iranian and Syrian ballistic missile threats. As Debka points out, this system will consist of three levels: - The Arrow system for intercepting incoming missiles at high altitudes. - The THAAD system to screen broad areas such as cities, airfields, battle arenas or military installations. - Patriots to snag the missiles that dodge the first two levels. The last round in the Juniper Cobra joint training programme was intended as a first field test of the integrated counter-missile units. Its success in the Negev was confirmed in US Congressional approval of appropriations for continuing the programme. Yet, if Israel positions itself into becoming an integral part of the American missile shield being put in place to protect American bases in Western Europe and the Middle East, this could have a profound impact on Israel's strategic position. By filling a front-line role in a system planned for Poland, the Czech Republic and other Eastern European countries, Israel will be perceived as siding with the US against Russia in a power struggle over influence and oil and gas markets in the Middle East and Central Asia, a contest that is already being referred to in the West and in Russia as "Cold War II". Russian Prime Minister Putin has made his opposition to the deployment of a US antiballistic missile system in Eastern Europe a cardinal foreign policy issue, and he has made it abundantly clear that if the Americans press ahead with their plan for stationing NMD components there, Russia will not hesitate to develop a missile system capable of overriding it. Russia already possesses some impressive weaponry that it could upgrade, notably its multiple warhead Topol-M, each warhead of which could be equipped with a computerised tracking scrambler to avoid US antiballistic missiles. In all events, if Russia sees Israel as an integral part of the US system, it could supply Iran and Syria with weaponry designed to neutralise the Israeli antiballistic network. Israel may have no alternative but to merge into the American system if it wants to obtain an advanced antiballistic system. However, Israel and the West view the matter differently. In the US, Europe and Russia, the American system is the subject of widespread public controversy. In Israel, public opinion is still wondering how the repercussions of these developments will not only affect the security of Israel but its very existence. Many are asking themselves whether the Israeli army, after having been equipped with these US- made antiballistic systems, will really be able to protect Israeli cities from intensive missile bombardment from Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and/or the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. ISRAEL'S SYRIAN FEAR: What Israel fears most is the prospect of Moscow supplying Damascus with the Iskander-E ground-to-ground missile, with a range of 200 kilometres, pinpoint precision and the ability to evade trackers. According to Israeli military experts, if the Syrians obtained missiles of this sort they could deliver surprise attacks on Israeli air force bases and antiballistic missile positions. But the Syrians already possess some hardware that has aroused Israeli anxieties. On 1 February, Israel Radio 10 announced that, in the middle of January 2007, Syria had successfully tested an upgraded Scud-D with a range of 700 kilometres, and therefore is capable of threatening every corner of Israel. With the many improvements the Syrians introduced into its guidance system and warhead capacity, the Scud-D is a much more precise and sophisticated missile. The radio report revealed that Arrow system radar had picked up and tracked the Syrian missile, and that components for it had been imported from North Korea while the remaining parts were produced in Syria with the assistance of North Korean experts. The Scud-D is 11 metres long, is driven by a liquid propellant and has a deviation factor of only a dozen or so metres. The 2007 test was the third since 2000-2001. Israeli strategists estimate that Syria currently possesses around 200 Scud-B's, 60 Scud-C's and the new Scud-D, and they fear that if Damascus also acquires the Iskander-E Syrian missile power will become an existential threat to Israel. Israeli military planners are also of the opinion that a future war between Syria and Israel will not take place on land in the occupied Golan Heights but rather in the air, through an exchange of missile fire. Although reminiscent of the war against Lebanon in July 2006, Syrian missile capacity in a missile war would be 10 times greater than Hizbullah's was, capable of reaching greater depths inside Israel, and much more precise and destructive, especially if Syria uses the missile barrage strategy. Under this strategy, Syria would unleash a torrent of missiles simultaneously, counting on the probability that the US-supported Israeli defence system would only be able to intercept 10 to 15 per cent of the assault missiles. The rest would then reach their targets causing enormous human and material losses. Israeli experts predict that the Israeli government could not possibly sustain the political fallout from such an assault even if the Israeli army turned its full air power (630 fighter planes and 250 Jericho missiles) against strategic and civilian targets in Syria. Moreover, according to the Israeli sources, the odds in favour of Syria, in the eventuality of a missile exchange, are improved by the fact that Iran would most likely intervene with its Shehab-3 missiles to deliver coordinated strikes against Israeli targets, while Hizbullah would chip in from Lebanon, targeting towns and settlements in northern Israel. Although Israeli military intelligence experts believe that Syrian military strategy is defensive and retaliatory, they nevertheless wonder if and when Damascus will shift to an offensive footing. Could there come a time when Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad would feel that Syria's defences are solid enough and its forces strong enough to mount an offensive against Israel? Might he decide to capitalise on the US quagmire in Iraq, the shaky position of the current administration at home and the aversion in the US to a new military adventure in the region, as well as on the weakness of the present government in Israel at a time when the Israeli military is still licking its wounds from the setback in Lebanon in 2006 and the onslaught of short-range missile fire from Hizbullah during that engagement? Israeli military intelligence also reports that Syria is continuing to supply Hizbullah with advanced weaponry, including hundreds of land-to- land anti-tank missiles and ground-to-air anti- aircraft missiles that can be carried on the shoulder and that are replacing ones Israel destroyed in the last war. They add that cooperation between Hizbullah, Syria and Iran has grown stronger over recent years and that it is unlikely that this tripartite alliance will rupture in the near future, even if Syria entered comprehensive peace negotiations with Israel, by means of which Israel hopes to use the return to Syria of the Golan Heights in order to wean Syria away from Iran and from its support of Hizbullah and what it deems radical Palestinian factions. Indeed, Israeli military intelligence believes that relations between Damascus and Tehran are likely to grow even closer as Syria becomes more dependant on Iranian oil in view of the prospect of the depletion of Syrian oil reserves in five years. In addition to concrete strategic indicators, Israeli intelligence experts point to the sharpening tenor of resistance rhetoric in the Arab world and among radical and terrorist organisations in particular. Such groups are increasingly of the conviction that their problems with Israel will never be resolved at the negotiating table, a strategy Egypt and Jordan have opted for. Rather, what will be required is violent confrontation, not necessarily all at once or massive, but at least in the form of continued and sustained attrition, using Katyusha, Qassam and other such missiles. At the very least, this strategy would sap Israel politically, economically, socially and militarily, even if it took many years, as was the case following the Israeli unilateral withdrawals from South Lebanon in 2000 and Gaza in 2005. Military strategists go on to observe that in both these areas militant organisations -- Hizbullah in South Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza -- took control following the departure of Israeli forces and soon obtained advanced missile weaponry superior to what they had before the Israeli withdrawals. Experts further predict that this is precisely what will happen following the inevitable withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, where extremist and terrorist organisations, such as Al-Qaeda, the Mahdi militias and the Badr Brigade, are certain to exploit the vacuum created by the withdrawal. Military intelligence simultaneously believes that while Israeli deterrent power is gradually weakening it has not yet reached the stage that would inspire others to risk military action against Israel. In fact, they add, the Israeli deterrent factor is still strong due to the superiority of the Israeli air force and to the Israeli army's intensive drive over the past year to rehabilitate itself. ISRAEL'S MISSILE DILEMMA: Nonetheless, Israel's foremost security dilemma, which was cast into relief during its last war against Lebanon, is its vulnerability to missile bombardment. During that engagement, Hizbullah demonstrated that its missiles could reach beyond towns and settlements in northern Israel to targets in central Israel, such as Natanya, Haifa and Bisan. Moreover, the Israeli antiballistic defence system at the time (a combination of Hawk, Patriot and Arrow missiles) proved incapable of intercepting any of the 3,000 missiles that soared into Israel in July and August 2006. Nor did Israeli aerial bombardment succeed in making a dent in Hizbullah's missile delivery capacities, for which reason the Lebanese resistance movement was able to sustain an ongoing missile barrage throughout the war. Aggravating Israel's vulnerability is the relatively small size of the country itself and the fact that its strategic locations are concentrated into even smaller areas along the coast and in the centre of the country. In addition, Israeli strategists are worried by the new threat from Iran's Shehab- 3 missiles. As a result, Israel is no longer vulnerable only to missile fire from neighbouring countries, such as Lebanon and Syria, but also from Iran, a threat that would probably materialise in the event of a US and/or Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. In order to confront this mounting ballistics threat, Israel believes that entering under the umbrella of the American antiballistic shield, in both its TMD and NMD components, would supply it with the protection it needs. To pave the way for this goal, Israel linked its early warning centre in south Tel Aviv with the American one in Colorado Springs and with US Central Command in Qatar. If an American military satellite picks up on any missile launch, the warning signal will be transmitted to the US and American centres simultaneously. Also to enhance its early warning capacities Israel launched its seventh in a series of reconnaissance satellites. The satellite is equipped with highly sophisticated cameras that can capture items as small as a few centimetres wide at altitudes ranging between 200 and 500 kilometres. Weighing only 300 kilogrammes, it is the only existing satellite that combines lightness with precision. Horizon 7, as it is called, is expected to strengthen the US-Israeli partnership in information exchange. As part of its drive to become part of the NMD, Israel is also seeking to obtain an airborne laser (ABL). Another antiballistic missile system that US air force command has been developing, this one operates on the principle of generating enough energy on a machine carried aboard a Boeing 747, for example, to produce a laser beam strong enough to knock out an offensive missile before or just after being launched. Before this, Israel tried to purchase a similar system designed for use against low altitude missiles such as Katyusha rockets. It also entered into negotiations with the American TRW firm that produces another laser-firing antiballistic missile system called THEL-M. As for antiballistic missile technology, Israel has already obtained Sky Guard -- a device that combines an antiballistic missile launcher plus anti-missile machine guns and that can be mounted on a truck. The Israeli military attaché in Washington, Major-General Dan Hariel, recently acknowledged that it would take some time to develop a system capable of fending off Katyusha and similar short-range missiles. However, he added, Tel Aviv is pioneering efforts to develop a sophisticated integrated system for this purpose. In view of Israel's relatively heavy reliance on warplanes to take out hostile missile units in enemy territory before they can be moved and redeployed, it has been trying for years to obtain the most state-of-the-art American military aircraft, including models that the US air force may not have used yet, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). In fact, Israel has been involved for some time in the JSF development programme, which is the largest military aircraft development programme to date. Initially, the US had refused to allow Israel to take part in this programme for fear that it would leak the technology to China, as occurred during the joint US- Israeli collaboration in the production of the Falcon radar and the Patriot missile defence. But such is the power of the Zionist lobby over Congress that the US administration caved in and lifted its ban against Israeli participation in the JSF programme. According to a broadcast on Israeli army radio, the Israeli air force may purchase around 100 such fighter planes that are expected to come into service before 2015. In addition, the Israeli army's website magazine reported that Israeli and US air force commanders have already reached an arms deal, codenamed the "Next Generation", in accordance with which the US would supply Israel with F35s or F-22s. According to Israeli Ministry of Defence sources, weapons experts are currently comparing the two models in order to determine which Israel should purchase. They say that the experts still prefer the F-22 that the US has already put into operation. Both models are highly manoeuvrable, have a powerful assault capacity, can remain airborne for long periods of time and can perform reconnaissance missions, all of which features would come in handy in a possible war against Iran. Israel is only one of the secondary partners in the JSF development programme. There are eight others: Britain, Canada, Italy, Holland, Turkey, Australia, Denmark and Norway. In February 2003, Israel signed a letter of intent in accordance with which it pledged about $50 million in order to participate in producing a family of assault aircraft for the American air force. The aircraft will range from conventional take-off and landing models to vertical or short- distance take-off and landing models that are particularly required by the US and British navies. In its 10-year military development programme, Israel plans to phase out its approximately 250 F-16s, which have formed the backbone of the Israeli air force for more than a quarter of a century, and to phase in a more advanced model, which will probably be the F-22. ISRAEL AS A US TOOL: From the US perspective, Israel's participation in the NMD stems from US concerns in the Middle East, which occupies a central place in its antiballistic shield programme. Because of the vast scale of this programme, the US has been looking for partners in various parts of the globe in order to raise financial and political support as well as to obtain permission to deploy components in the territory of these partners. Because of the US's interests in the Middle East and the centrality of this region to the NMD, it is possible to see why US administrations over more than a decade have been keen to bring Middle East countries onboard. Washington has set its hopes in particular on the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt, Jordan and Israel, for which reason US secretary of defences during their tours of the region have repeatedly echoed the refrain of the dangers of the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction in and around the region, and the need for better coordination in early warning and intelligence sharing between the US and its friends in the region. By linking Israel and Arab countries to this system, the US is seeking to forge a defence bloc for the so-called "New Middle East" that the Bush administration had envisioned following its invasion and occupation of Iraq. It is precisely because of this that Arab countries have refused to take part in the NMD, preferring instead to obtain their weapons (such as the Patriot Pac-3) within the TMD framework. In this context, we must not overlook the significance of Israel's moves to join in NATO tasks after NATO approved raising the level of relations and joint military exercises with Israel. Israel's aim is clearly to develop closer military cooperation with NATO so that, by working together with NATO and other allied forces, it will be able to benefit from joint manoeuvres and assessment activities. Israel has made it clear, however, that it will not take part in NATO peacekeeping missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo.
