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What now, Russia?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 20 - 11 - 2008


By Lubna Abdel-Aziz
Shrouded in mystery and intrigue, there was always a big question mark hanging over this vast territory we call Russia! With its forbidding terrain of dark huge steppes, endless thick forests, craggy rugged plateaus and gigantic high mountains, it has remained an enigma to the rest of the world since its inception. Not entirely Eastern and not quite Western, Russia has struggled in search of an identity for over a thousand years.
From Peter the Great to Catherine the Great, from the Romanovs to the Rasputins, from Chekov to Tchaikovsky, Russia has forever been a land of contrasts and contradictions. Whether in the hands of warlords or czars, peace or war, communism or democracy, Russia is yet to find its true identity and its rightful place among the world's leading nations -- a process that has lasted for 10 centuries and still continues. A thousand years ago Russia was a small region in Europe, by adding territories on all sides, together with their natives of diverse ethnic backgrounds, the country continued to expand. The people however, preserved their languages, religions and traditions, and defining Russia became more and more complex. The Russians still shared one thing, their deep and endless love for their cherished land -- their Mother Russia. Until the 1900s Russia had little industry and was regarded as a poor and backward nation, vacillating through the centuries between Eastern and Western powers of influence.
During WW-I the Russian economy could not meet the needs of both the army abroad and the people at home. Blaming their suffering on the Czar, violent riots and strikes over shortages of bread and coal, resulted in Czar Nicholas' removal on March 15, 1917. By the mid 20s the Bolsheviks (later called the Communists) economic policies began to bear fruit and Russian, or by then, Soviet industries expanded rapidly. With the end of WW-II and the beginning of the Cold War, industrialization had reached new heights, and it rapidly became second only to that of the US. But the people were suppressed and dissatisfied, and any movement demanding more freedom was instantly crushed by the Stalins and Khrushchevs. Pressure from the US and other world democracies were heeded by one President Gorbachev, who became the first Russian President that the West could relate to and communicate with. The Berlin wall came tumbling down, the communist binding chains were broken and at last democracy had finally entered that harsh, forbidding, foreboding land of Russia. Or had it?
Following Gorbachev, the Yeltsin years were nothing less than chaotic. Marked by anarchy, violence, lawlessness and unrest, a sigh of relief was breathed at the end of Yeltsin and his total lack of control and absence of governing. Putin, a former KGB officer, was a welcome new face who promised law and order, production and prosperity.
Was Putin a proponent of a Western style liberal democracy, or were too many KGB memories clouding his vision? There is little doubt about his popularity amongst the Russians, and his unmitigated desire to see Russia back on top of the world is shared by all.
Some actions, language and behaviour of Putin, has of late, been confusing, at best. Two years ago, strange goings on were detected out of Russia that were reminiscent of KGB activities. The murder of journalist Anna Politkovkaya, the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvenenko, and the poisoning of former Yeltsin Prime-Minister Yegor Gaydar, all critical of Putin, smelled of KGB tactics. All were eliminated, and all fingers pointed at Vladimir Putin. Was he at last showing his true colours? Putin's merciless response to the Chechnyan revolt was disturbingly familiar. The invasion of Georgia during the Olympic Games was a clear defiance of the international community, a situation which until now remains unresolved. Putin's threat to hang Georgian leader Sakashvili "by the balls," is another example of what has come to be known as Putin's style of "toilet-threats." With his oil reserves helping his economic boom, he has the luxury of threats and punishments by withholding oil trade to those who do not 'kow-tow' to his new/old vision of an "Imperial" Russia. Putin's policies have sent the wrong messages to the West who have become wary and weary of Mr. Putin. Perhaps this exactly how Mr. Putin likes it. With the completion of his two 4-year terms, Putin hand-picked Dmitri Medvedev to succeed him as president, while he assumed the position of prime-minister. Medvedev's first address to the Russian people included a surprise proposal to extend the presidential term from 4 to 6 years that would not apply to him. The bruit spread, that Medvedev was smoothing the path for the return of his predecessor to rule for another 12 years starting in 2012. This is within the realm of plausibility as Putin enjoys a 57% popularity among the Russian people. But changing the Constitution to custom fit certain ambitions is disastrous. Principles of a Constitution should remain constant and not sway with the pendulum.
President-elect Obama may or may not have expected such a strange reception from Medvedev which seemed to dare the new President-elect. Vowing to station new missiles near Poland's border in response to President Bush's plan to deploy an anti-missile system, Medvedev's intention was to embarrass the two US Presidents with one threat. The overwhelming support of the EU towards Poland, Georgia, and other Russian neighbours virtually neutralized his threat.
Russian deep seated resentment of their demotion and the US's sole domination is understandable, but taking on the US, the EU, NATO, Poland, Georgia, the Ukraine? At present, Russia has an ally in the global financial crisis plaguing the US and the world's richest economies. It has strengthened Medvedev/Putin's hand, while diminishing the US and others. Russia however, will find it counterproductive to resort to its old Soviet tactics of intimidation, crisis or no crisis, oil or no oil. Prepared to compete rather than cooperate, Russia has yet to absorb the fundamental meaning of a full-fledged democracy. It needs, at the very least, to recognize that communism tried and failed for near a century, therefore other forms of governing with full transparency and accountability must be sought for Russians to evolve politically and socially.
Perhaps only then, a new identity will be forged for this vast and magnificent land, its wistful and soulful people.
Wretched and abundant,
Oppressed and powerful,
Weak and mighty,
Mother Russia.
Nikolai Nekrasov (1821 -- 1877)


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