Iran is no enemy in the region, and neither is Turkey, writes Amin Howeidi* With all the changes taking place in the international order, it is perhaps time to take another look at our regional system and fiddle with it a little bit. I have a vision to offer you here. It is a vision of a region composed of Arab countries (all 22 members of the Arab League) plus Turkey and Iran, and minus Israel. Israel has made many inroads into this region, more indeed than anything it ever dreamt of. And yet it has only recently deigned to accept the Arab peace initiative. So let's focus on the geographical boundaries of the region that are of relevance to us. In this region, we don't have anything resembling a full-fledged political system with well-known rules and norms. Ours is a system governed by the realities of neighbourliness and the exigencies of inter-linked interests. It is also a region that never fails to attract world attention. Still, I see potential for change in this regime. I see potential that may turn the entire region from a mere stretch of land into a well-integrated political system. The future can be odd just as it can be exciting. As I said many times before, there is no permanent friend or foe in politics. Moods ranging between affection and hostility will persist, and even shape the way people write history, but geography will survive all of that. Countries do not select their neighbours, but they have to deal with them, however unpleasant they are -- Israel a case in point. Our region, just as other regions around the world, is full of complexities. Every country has its own agenda, and the agendas are not easily reconcilable. Napoleon Bonaparte once said that it is easier to fight against a coalition than being part of one. Unless all are willing to give up part of their sovereign decision-making it is hard to reconcile national agendas. On the whole, however, the strength of any region depends on the ability of its members to work together. Against what everyone seems to think, I see a considerable opportunity for this region to move forward. Look for example at Lebanon. There, a president has been elected and a national government, while working closely with the parliament, seems to have sorted out the Hizbullah debacle, thus sparing the country another round of fighting. Lebanon has also exchanged ambassadors with Syria, opening a new chapter in bilateral ties. Iran is also doing fine. It has avoided an Israeli-inspired punitive strike by the US while maintaining its right to enrich uranium. Despite Tehran's provocative remarks and its boasting about how many centrifuges it has, the truth is that the country is getting closer to the point where it would be able to make nuclear warheads -- finally offering the region a modicum of parity with Israel. Turkey is getting friendlier than ever. It is sponsoring Syrian-Israeli negotiations, thus helping the Syrians to shift their position without losing face. Time was that Ankara would act provocatively with its Arab neighbours. This doesn't seem to be happening anymore. And the fact that Turkey recognises Israel doesn't seem to grate against Arab nerves as it once did. Turkey has exempted Egyptian textiles from taxes, invested in joint ventures in Arab countries, and signed a memorandum of understanding on security with Gulf countries. More important, it is actively opposed to the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq. It is a position that Ankara is taking for purely self- serving reasons, but it complements our interests, which is good enough. Turkey needs to sort out its dispute over Euphrates water, but there is no reason for diplomats not to do so. In general, Iran is supporting Arab rights. But we mustn't forget that Tehran is still occupying three Arab islands: Abu Moussa, Greater Tunb and Smaller Tunb. This problem must be resolved through diplomatic talks. Still, the fact that Iran is challenging Israel's nuclear monopoly is crucial to us. True, we cannot depend on another country's capacity to defend us, but to see a deterrence emerge to Israel's nuclear power is not a bad thing. Egypt seems to be getting better at keeping things quiet between the Palestinians and the Israelis, so much so that the US secretary of state thought for a while that a deal was possible before the end of the year. In brief, things are not as bad as they seem. In my view, we are faced with two options. Either we keep our focus on Arab countries alone, or we expand the regional system to include Turkey (keeping Kurdish separatists at bay) and Iran (which challenges Israel's nuclear monopoly). I, for one, advise the second option. * The writer is former defence minister and chief of General Intelligence.
