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Obamamania or Obamaphobia?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 01 - 2009

Egypt-US relations should be given a boost by the entrance of Obama to the Oval Office, writes Nabil Fahmi*
The election of Barack Hussein Obama as the 44th president of the United States was truly historic. As he often said, he was not a typical choice in being coloured, from a by-racial family, having lived across America and the world, and with a middle name of Middle Eastern origin. In their choice, Americans showed that they were finally turning over tragic pages of domestic racial discrimination and were once again confident in shaping the future engaged with each other and the world. Through Obama they became born again believers in themselves.
The international community has also been overwhelmingly enthusiastic about Obama's election because of his declared belief that engaging the world was in America's interests and those of the world at large. Arab popular opinion raved at the result because the victor was the candidate with positions fundamentally different from those of George W Bush. The people of the world became instant believers in Obama's America.
Pundits are now debating whether Obamamania will quickly transform itself into Obamaphobia as domestic and international realities weigh heavily on the president-elect's lofty eloquence. Obama cannot possibly live up to the expectations the world has of him, but then these expectations are indication that Obama has already succeeded in making believers of Americans and the world that they have common interests and must work together.
Obamamania will not quickly become Obamaphobia, but the years to come will witness many achievements and many disappointments as crisis and opportunity compete for time, finite assets, foresight and better judgement. Obama is an internationalist by birth and upbringing. He is, however, an American politician; consequently he will always put America's interest first and take calculated political decisions. Compassion yes, but watery-eyed idealism the developing and Arab worlds should not expect and the neo-cons not fret.
Obama's international priorities will be the financial crisis, Russia, China, safeguarding the US against terror, with an emphasis on Afghanistan and Pakistan, climate change, nuclear non-proliferation and defining a new role for NATO. In the Middle East, Obama will focus on reducing the US operational footprint in Iraq, Iranian nuclear proliferation and expansionism, reducing US energy dependency, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. In dealing with these issues he will engage allies and antagonists, and while these issues will compete for his time, he is a believer in complimentarity; that different regional issues affect one another. He will deal with a number of issues at the same time, which is different from the Bush approach, particularly in its first term when everything was seen from behind the prism of terrorism.
It is noteworthy that Obama's choices of foreign policy officials, including General Jones as national security advisor, and Hillary Clinton and James Steinberg as secretary and deputy secretary of state, indicates that he has a preference for realist practitioners rather than ideologues.
Obama's internationalist character, his belief in the interrelationship of regional issues, and his achievement oriented staff will likely increase his interest in Egyptian-American relations that are founded to a great degree on our ability to act as a trendsetter and problem solver in the Middle East. History is replete with evidence that when Egypt took the lead our actions served well our interests as well as relations with the United States -- even when our actions were not coordinated with or agreed to by the United States (President Nasser's decolonalisation, the October 1973 War under President Sadat, President Mubarak's realignment of the Arab world and the decision to fight to liberate Kuwait in 1990 and to oppose the invasion of Iraq in 2003).
There is, therefore, tremendous opportunity for the development of Egyptian-American relations, especially when Egypt takes the initiative in the region and in setting the regional and US-Egyptian agenda. Our continuing efforts towards Palestinian-Israeli peace are a case in point, and I would emphasise that Israeli collective punishment practices and the Hamas/Palestinian Authority divide will not provide Israel with security or the Palestinians with an independent state.
The Obama emphasis on the "Iraqiasation" of the Iraq issue is another opportunity for Egypt, especially with respect to Iraqi reconciliation. The nuclear proliferation problems in the Middle East -- be that Israel or Iran -- is a third issue where Egypt has played a prominent role traditionally with President Mubarak's 1990 proposal to establish a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East. This initiative is ripe for reactivation and would benefit from having a special Egyptian presidential envoy assigned to develop and promote it.
The Egyptian-US relationship will, of course, also be tested from time to time, be that on what is perceived as US bias towards Israel at the expense of the Arabs or as result of differences on US interference in Egyptian domestic affairs as part of the promotion of democracy and human rights concerns. Both will continue to be problematic, for America's support for Israel has not wavered, nor can any US president afford not to support democracy or safeguarding human rights. Of course there will be calls to decrease financial support for Egypt because of budgetary pressures or the concerns of different interest groups in America. Nevertheless these are not insurmountable problems.
What is required is increased US bias towards peace and US national interests; when this occurred the Egyptian-Israeli agreement was signed in spite of its bias towards Israel. The promotion of democracy, like market economics, through strategic and patient support of institution building and community evolution rather than public rabble-rousing rhetoric would be more effective, less problematic, and would create a much more conducive environment for a beneficial relationship.
In closing, I cannot overemphasise the importance of an Egyptian public-private partnership in dealing with the United States. At the beginning of my assignment in Washington in 1999, we initiated an intensive programme of joint visits to the US well beyond Washington and New York. These activities should be resumed, but they should also be complemented by a series of private sector organised events here in Egypt to which present and prospective US officials and opinion makers are invited early in the new year.
* The writer is former Egyptian ambassador to Washington.


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