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Friend or foe?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 19 - 02 - 2009

Iranian leaders have been rushing to Iraq following last month's provisional elections, notes Salah Hemeid
First it was Ali Akbar Walayati, a senior aid to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who traveled to Baghdad after last month�s landmark provincial election, then he was followed by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and now it is the powerful Iranian politician and former president Hashemi Rafsanjani who is preparing to visit Baghdad soon.
The Iranian officials are making no secret that their diplomatic and political offensive is aimed at bolstering their nation's ties with Iraq. During his visit Mottaki and accompanying officials last week signed several agreements for economic, trade, oil, agricultural and cultural cooperation. Mottaki said Iran-Iraq trade exchanges have increased by hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few years and called this a sign of the two countries' intention to boost their ties.
During the trip officials from oil ministries of the two countries signed an oil deal according to which Iraq will transfer crude oil to the Abadan refinery in southern Iran, and in exchange receive refined oil products, Mottaki said. He went on to say that Tehran and Baghdad have agreed to jointly exploit some of their oil fields on their border which was once a battlefield in the 1980-1988 war. Iraq's Oil Minister Hussein Al-Shahristani expects a deal on joint oilfields and a broader oil deal to be signed by 20 March.
One key agreement which was signed by head of the Iranian Cultural Heritage Organisation, Hamid Baqai, during the recent visit is a cultural and tourism agreement with Iraq to help the country repair its historic monuments and construct museums. Among those sites which Iran promised to restore is the partially ruined royal palace at Ctesiphon, the site of the ancient Persian Sassanide Empire, south of Baghdad. To many Iraqis, the restoration will bring back memories of Iranian occupation of Iraq and underscore Iran's role as an important rival power historically.
After Saddam Hussein was overthrown in the US- led war of 2003, Iran suddenly had much great influence. Shia Iran gained strategically from Saddam's fall, with Iraqi Shias becoming Iraq's new rulers. After the war Iran immediately stepped in to consolidate the positions of its Shia allies in the government, allowing the once isolated Persian nation to build a quasi-power base in what was once considered a predominantly Arab country, and expand its influence throughout the region.
Nearly six years after the US invasion of Iraq, visits by top Iranian leaders are attempts to further bolster its Shia allies in elections. An alliance led by Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki won most of the seats in the provinces' local councils beating Tehran's closest ally, the Supreme Islamic Council. Iran worries that Al-Maliki may try to forge a coalition with secular Shias and Sunni Arabs, which could weaken the Shia religious coalition, indirectly weakening Iran's position vis-a-vis the US in any negotiations with United States President Barack Obama.
After Mottaki's visit Al-Maliki's aids suggested a new power-sharing formula by the Shia groups in the newly elected local councils, even reviving the Shia Iraqi United Alliance, in anticipation of parliamentary election later this year. On the defensive after the strong show of public support for Al-Maliki in the recent local elections, both the Supreme Islamic Council and the Sadrist Movement of Iran-based cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr expressed readiness to rejoin the Shia alliance. The success of the Shia groups in salvaging their fractured alliance will keep the Shia front united and will certainly help Iran advance its agenda in Iraq.
Iranian ambitions in Iraq were never a secret, even if accusations of Iranian activities have so far been so short on facts. While in Iraq Mottaki said Iran is currently drawing up a new roadmap for its relations with Iraq. Like other Iranian officials, the foreign minister did not spell out Iran's goals, making Iran's next step impossible to guess.
However, based on its six years of wide ranging activities, the perception of Iran in Iraq is one of a state that follows interventionist policies. Many Iraqis fear that the nature of the Iranian interference in Iraq is expansionist and aimed at eventual regional hegemony. It is only natural that Iraqis are wary of Iran's motives, considering the stakes involved in letting Iran expand its economic, political and cultural influence in their country, infringing on their sovereignty, unity and security. On Monday Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari acknowledged Iran was influential in Iraq. "They have influence, I have to be honest," Zebari told Agence France Press.
On Saturday Interior Minister Jawad Bolani imposed a ban on signs in foreign languages in Iraq's Shia holy cities, in an apparent reference to Farsi, the language of Iran. Bolani, himself a Shia, but an independent secular politician, has ordered that all phrases in foreign languages be removed from public places and services in Najaf, Karbala and all the other holy cities in Iraq. Signs in Farsi are common in public toilets and other facilities used by the hundreds of thousands of Iranian pilgrims who visit Shia Islam's holiest sites in these cities.
The US is, of course, especially worried about Iran's motives in Iraq. On Saturday General David Petraeus, who commanded the US military in Iraq before taking over as head of forces in Central Asia and the Middle East, said that Iranian military ties to "special groups" in Iraq were "one of the elements fuelling" violence between Sunnis and Shias that brought Iraq to the verge of civil war in 2006-2007. "There is absolutely no question about this, and there is also no question that some of this does continue to this day," Petraeus said.
The series of deadly attacks and bombings in recent days targeting Shia pilgrims on their way to Karbala that killed dozens of people is a reminder of the fragile security situation in Iraq. It is also a reminder of the difficult challenges facing Iraq which need to be tackled carefully in order to avoid the recurring of the sectarian war that bedeviled Iraq after the 2003 US invasion. With Shia Iran increasing its influence in Iraq, the Persian nation seems to be one of these key challenges.


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