History will judge who lost Mauritania, writes Gamal Nkrumah It has been some time now since the complacent official narrative about the Mauritanian military's interference in politics has passed muster. First, it was Moors against black Africans. Then it metamorphosed into Moorish military against Moorish civilian politicians. Now it is poor Moors against rich outsiders. The debate is about the least bad way to return to democracy. Successive military governments were hamstrung by legal and political challenges to their rule. However, the Mauritanian military have no immediate plans to return to the barracks. The Mauritanian military's political cover was always prized by Western powers, especially after the sprawling desert northwest African country became the third Arab nation, after Egypt and Jordan, to establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on 18 July in Mauritania, with a second round in the offing if necessary, on 1 August. The elections were originally planned for 6 June. However, political rumblings and altercations made it prerequisite to postpone the presidential poll. The future of Mauritania has been postponed once again. The pugnacious politicians of the northwest African country are trying to be wise before rather than after the event. For the foreseeable future, Mauritania's political bigwigs are pressing on with plans for long-term political reform. Welcome to the less exciting but more soundly based era of calculated risks. What Mauritania's generals and civilian politicians lack is the ability to offer something that the Mauritanian people can relate to. The country's citizens have lost all faith in the politicians and the generals. Mauritania's populace is a disgruntled lot. A quarter of Mauritanians live on less than one dollar a day. Incentives to woo the people have proved to be particularly dangerous in this regard. The politicians of Mauritania are simply not wealthy enough to bribe people and buy votes. Unfortunately for them, they are not much richer than the average Mauritanian voter and neither are they charismatic. This constitutes an intractable problem because the Mauritanian political system has become systematically dependent on handouts from abroad. Foreign funding sources now determine who wins at the polls. Africa's panel of the wise, so-called, met in the Libyan capital Tripoli on 7 June to find ways to restore democracy in Mauritania. The country is embroiled in a battle that is unlikely to end quickly, and certainly not with the election results, whatever the outcome. The civilian politicians want to strengthen judicial and bureaucratic power while diluting the elected officials' authority. The military opposes such measures arguing that these measures if instituted will lead to weaker governments and a less governable country. That debate is ongoing about whether or not such laws should exist at all, and are so readily invoked, highlighting what a long way Mauritania has to go in building sustainable democratic institutions. On 6 August 2008, a military coup d'état deposed the democratically elected president Sidi Ould Sheikh Abdullah. The coup was acceptable neither by the international community nor the civilian politicians. The country fast slid into a political morass, with civil society groups joining hands with civilian parties opposed to the military and former generals proclaiming that they will be running as presidential candidates. All hell was let loose. Foreign powers intervened. Wealthy Arab states from as far afield as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Libya -- the most important donors to political groups in Mauritania -- attempted to call the shots. The problem is that the wealthy Arab states do not have a common agenda as far as Mauritania is concerned and they support rival political factions. It is against this chaotic backdrop that a Junta, or High Command of State, ruled the Islamic Republic of Mauritania with an iron fist. However, on 15 September 2008 the Mauritanian National Assembly adopted plans to hold "free and fair elections" and to keep the Mauritanian military out of the political sphere. Abdullah had won multi-party democratic polls in 2007. To many Mauritanians he still represents the legitimate democratically elected leader of the country. To others, he is the very embodiment of corruption and nepotism. General Mohamed Ould Abdel-Aziz who led the 2008 military takeover stepped down as head of state in April 2009 -- curiously shortly after he downgraded relations with Israel. He insists that retired officers should be allowed to run for the presidency, no doubt with his own candidacy in mind. Ahmed Ould Daddah, son of the first democratically elected president of Mauritania, the late Moukhtar Ould Daddah, and currently the country's main opposition leader, heads the influential Rally of Democratic Forces, better known by its French acronym RFD. He is a suave politician whose French mother and famous late father ensure that he has important international connections. While he is not necessarily popular with Arab benefactors, he is the most popular Mauritanian leader as far as Western powers are concerned. The charismatic Ould Daddah has powerful antagonists, however. The Alliance for Justice and Democracy/Movement for Renewal is led by Ibrahim Sarr who has vowed to boycott next month's elections. Other civilian politicians are distrustful of the generals and have opted to stay out of the presidential race. The generals and former military strongmen are putting on a brave face and say they are making a stand for democracy. One of those, Ali Ould Mohamed Vaal, who ruled the country as a military despot 2005-2007, announced that he will be running as a presidential candidate in the forthcoming polls. Former President Maaouiya Ould Sid Ahmed Taya, currently a political exile in the Gulf state of Qatar, also said that he would run as a presidential candidate in the forthcoming elections. It was Taya who established full diplomatic relations with Israel in 1999. Arab Gulf countries, most notably Qatar, have poured petrodollars into propping up Mauritania's faltering economy and shaky political system. Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi has failed to bring the Mauritanian protagonists together in spite of his considerable largesse. Ironically, it was the leader of a poor neighbouring African nation with impeccable democratic credentials who came to the rescue. Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade has been instrumental in securing the tentative deal. Whatever the outcome of the forthcoming polls, it doesn't look very good for Mauritanian democracy. There should be no handouts to Moorish military tyrants and dictators. And, the judgement of history will take care of who lost Mauritania.
