With the unity of Sudan in the balance, southern and northern opposition leaders gather in a last ditch attempt to keep things together, writes Asmaa El-Husseini in Juba The upcoming Juba Conference is likely to be a watershed. Arranged by the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), it has been pointedly boycotted by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Mohamed Othman Al-Mirghani. The organisers of the conference know that the stakes are high. In 14 months, a self-determination referendum will give Sudan's southerners a chance to opt to secede. But even before that date general elections will be held, an event that gives the opposition in both the south and the north a chance to challenge incumbent president. The SPLM disagrees with the NCP on many issues, including the manner in which the elections and the referendum should be held. The census upon whose basis the government intends to conduct the referendum has been contested by southerners who claim it was designed to affect the outcome of the poll. The SPLM accuses the NCP of backing its southern opponents. It is in answer to a conference the southern opposition held in Kenana that the SPLM is organising the Juba event. But this is much more than a tit for tat. According to the SPLM, the Juba Conference is a last attempt to set things right. SPLM leaders believe that the NCP had a hand in the formation of the SPLM- Democratic Change, a splinter group led by former foreign minister Lam Akol. The SPLM also blames the NCP for the spread of tribal warfare in Southern Sudan over the past few months. Unless its concerns are addressed, the SPLM is likely to keep up the pressure on the NCP. Citing potential irregularities, the SPLM and other opposition parties say they intend to boycott the presidential elections. Any elections held under the current situation, they say, would be won by the NCP. The opposition maintains that the NCP is manipulating the media and abusing its authority to stay in power. The NCP, many believe, is ready to go to any length to defend the legitimacy of the president, who faces an international court order for his arrest. The NCP is denying it all. Its officials claim that the conference in Juba is a charade, a simple attempt to undermine the current peace agreement. The NCP says that the parties that went to the conference had but one aim in mind -- to undermine the legitimacy of the current government. NCP officials mention the sum of $18 million, allegedly provided to the Juba Conference organisers by a foreign government. According to the NCP, the Juba Conference aims to change the status quo in an undemocratic manner. The Juba Conference remains an extraordinary event. It has brought together for the first time prominent northern opposition leaders with the main party in Southern Sudan. In a way, it is an admission that five years after the signing of the 2005 peace deal, the country remains far from unified. In fact, many claim that a united Sudan is no longer a reasonable prospect. Many southerners seem to have lost interest in unity, and northerners are beginning to see their point. SPLM Secretary-General Pagan Amum seems optimistic about the conference. According to him, the conference offers southerners a chance to hear what northerners have to say on such crucial matters as the right to self-determination. He notes that for some northern participants this is their first chance to visit the south. Amum maintains that the conference is a chance for mutual learning and establishing common grounds of understanding. It will not be easy, however. If unifying Sudan is, by everybody's admission, a tough task, secession is not going to be much easier. Many expect the country to slide into war before secession is complete. As for the Juba Conference, for one thing participants have no common agenda. Aside from their distrust of the NCP, they have little in common. Each is likely to use the conference as a means of undermining the NCP, rather than as a way of formulating a common future for the country. So why is everyone gathered in Juba? Some went in the hope of showing that the Sudanese can get along, even at their darkest moments. And some truly believe that it is not too late to salvage a united Sudan. It has been suggested, for example, that the participants should name a common presidential candidate, one who can challenge Al-Bashir in the coming elections. Others feel that the next 14 months should be used to rehabilitate the south and make secession a less alluring option. Mubarak Al-Fadel Al-Mahdi of the Umma Party proposed an allocation of 10 per cent of national income and import duties for reconstruction and development in the south, at a minimum of $1 billion per annum. Others, including Sadeq Al-Mahdi of the National Umma Party suggested confederation as a compromise between unity and secession. But it is generally believed that Sudan cannot remain united with Al-Bashir and his NCP in power. Right now, much depends on the ability of the northern opposition parties and the SPLM to commit to a united front. Most SPLM leaders may be waiting for the referendum to start moving towards secession. If northern leaders expect the SPLM to help them pull the country together, they may be mistaken. Hala Abdel-Halim of the Haq (Truth) Movement suggested that the southern leader Salva Kiir become the consensus candidate against Al-Bashir in the coming elections. But even Kiir didn't care for her proposal -- perhaps a further sign that southern disenchantment with unity may be irreversible at present. For now, northern politicians are too divided to agree on a common strategy. During a recent parliamentary debate, both Al-Mahdi and Hassan Al-Turabi tried to defend themselves against allegations that they encouraged violence in the south and undermined the country's unity by passing strict Islamic laws. The Sudanese Communist Party's leader accused both Al-Mahdi and Al-Turabi of instigating much of the current turmoil. In the south, many have lost hope. A southern citizen told Al-Ahram Weekly : "Northern leaders speak of unity all the time, but want to cheat us yet again." If Sudan is to stay united, the NCP should acknowledge some of its errors and start making amends -- a tough prospect if there is one. For now, opposition parties can only appeal to the international community, which they said they would do.
