Asmaa Al-Husseini looks at how the elections are shaping up in Sudan Sudan is sailing towards elections on a current of chaos and confusion. The elections committee has already registered 10 presidential candidates. President Omar Al-Bashir, Umma leader Al-Sadeq Al-Mahdi, and Yasser Arman, deputy secretary-general of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) are the best known candidates. There are also seven other candidates in the race, including two running as independents. The committee has turned down three other candidates. To be accepted, each candidate has to collect 15,000 signatures from 18 of Sudan's 25 governorates. For the last 20 years, Sudan has been ruled by the National Salvation government of President Omar Al-Bashir. The elections, some hope, would give Sudan a way out of its predicaments and launch it into an era of democracy. But the odds don't seem good so far. These elections may be the most volatile yet in Sudan's tormented history of military coups and short-lived democracy. One thing that makes these elections particularly difficult is that it is taking place not only at the level of the presidency and the parliament but also in the south and on the governorate level. The elections may be the last chance for Sudan to remain united. Its outcome is likely to influence the result of the self-determination referendum scheduled in south Sudan in early 2011. The energy spent in arranging the elections, some say, would have been better spent consolidating Sudan's precarious unity. The SPLM says that an electoral victory for its candidate, Yasser Arman, would mean that the north is serious about unity. The Popular Congress Party of Hassan Al-Turabi, meanwhile, has fielded a southern Muslim candidate, Abdallah Deng Niyal, to express its commitment to unity. A decision has been made to exclude parts of Darfur from the elections for security reasons. However, some of Darfur's militant groups disapproved of this decision and threatened to express their dismay through an escalation of military activities. Fears are that the elections may lead to worse divisions in the country and take a bloody toll on south Sudan. International organisations have noted that acts of violence in south Sudan have been on the rise of late and may get worse during the elections and the referendum that would follow. The south and the north are said to be stockpiling weapons in anticipation of future fighting. Al-Bashir's National Congress Party has been accused of supplying southern groups with weapons, a charge that the party emphatically denied. The upcoming elections are a matter of life and death for many Sudanese groups. The ruling NCP wishes to impart new legitimacy on itself and its leader, Omar Al-Bashir, now wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The ICC is thinking of adding genocide to the list of charges against Al-Bashir. The northern opposition parties, also known as the Juba Alliance Parties, are following a plan that may lead to the dispersion of votes in the first round of elections. They intend to field several candidates against Al-Bashir in the first round, and then back the best performing candidate in the second round. The plan has been criticised as ineffective, and may be ditched in favour of these parties backing one strong candidate from the beginning. But it will be hard to choose between the two strongest candidates of the northern opposition: Al-Sadeq Al-Mahdi and Yasser Arman. The northern opposition may also withdraw from the elections if they suspect foul play on the government's part. Some of the Juba Alliance parties still fear that the NCP and the SPLM may cut a last minute deal at their expense. Many in Sudan fear that the elections will be rigged. Foreign Minister Deng Alor, who is also a prominent SPLM figure, said that the recent census was flawed. Others said that the registration of voters was rigged. Such accusations are likely to gather force after the elections. Sudan's elections are not likely to end its predicaments. In fact, the elections may propel Sudan into further turmoil. As recent events in Iran, Kenya, and Zimbabwe show, elections may not always be the answer to a country's problems.
