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Back to the brink?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 29 - 10 - 2009

Twin bomb attacks caused chaos in Baghdad this week and underlined Iraq's still-fragile security, writes Salah Hemeid
Twin suicide car bombs targeting government buildings in central Baghdad killed more than 150 people on Sunday and wounded hundreds more in the worst attack in the country in two years. The bombs went off outside the headquarters of the Ministry of Justice and the Baghdad Provincial Council, which are about 500 metres apart and just a few hundred metres from the heavily fortified Green Zone where the US embassy and the prime minister's office are located.
Footage taken by security cameras and released by the Interior Ministry on Monday showed that a passenger bus had targeted the Justice Ministry and a mini-bus had been detonated at the Provincial Council. The Interior Ministry said that the first vehicle had held some 1,000kg of explosives, while the mini-bus had carried about 700kg. It said that the remains of the suicide bombers were recovered from the vehicles' wreckage and that investigators were trying to determine their identity.
The attacks were the deadliest in Baghdad this year and the second since August to target government buildings in the Iraqi capital. They destroyed buildings and set dozens of cars stuck in traffic on fire, incinerating drivers and passengers trapped inside. The suicide bombers struck at the height of the morning rush-hour, with some of those killed or maimed being people trying to finish paperwork, or women and children who had gone to the council to seek compensation for losses suffered in previous attacks.
The attacks triggered nationwide anger and international condemnation and also underscored the fragility of security in the country since the withdrawal of US troops from urban areas on 30 June. Iraq is currently preparing for parliamentary elections in January, and the present round of attacks are part of a surge of violence this year that has focussed on government offices and the security forces, including orchestrated attacks on the foreign and finance ministries in Baghdad on 19 August that killed nearly 100 people.
Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for Sunday's attacks on Tuesday, declaring that its bombers were targeting "the foundations and pillars" of the Shia-led government of Iraq. The Al-Qaeda declaration contrasted with statements from other Sunni insurgent groups, whose representatives have been quick to blame the attacks either on intra- Shia rivalry ahead of the forthcoming elections or disputes between the Shia- controlled government in Baghdad and the Kurds. They have also accused Iran of being involved in the blasts.
The area where the bombings occurred was only reopened to traffic six months ago, and shortly afterwards blast walls were repositioned to allow traffic closer to government buildings as part of measures hailed by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki as a sign that security was returning to the capital.
The blasts have reinforced opinion that such gains in security are reversible, and the fact that the explosive-laden vehicles were able to get into an area that is home to numerous government offices has raised doubts about Al-Maliki's security strategy and his efforts to end the violence.
The Iraqi authorities said earlier this week that they were investigating the attacks, including security measures in the area. Interior Minister Jawad Al-Bolani said on Monday that 76 people had been arrested in connection with the attacks, but did not provide information on who they were or how they are believed to be connected. Governor of Baghdad Salah Abdel-Razak said that at least one of the vehicles has been identified as coming from the municipality of Falluja, a stronghold of the Sunni insurgency.
Al-Maliki, who has staked his political reputation and bid for re-election on his ability to bring peace to the violence-torn country, blamed Sunday's attacks on Baathists and Al-Qaeda. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said the attacks had the fingerprints of the same group that had been responsible for August's attacks on his ministry, while Defence Ministry spokesman Mohamed Al-Askari said that investigators had established that the explosives had been brought in from a neighbouring country, which he did not name.
Iraq has accused members of the outlawed Baath Party living in neighbouring Syria of being behind the August bombings.
Last Sunday's attacks have exposed deep failings on the part of Iraqi security forces, which have assumed responsibility from US troops. They have stirred fears in the Iraqi population about the security forces' ability to confront a re-emerging insurgency that many had previously believed was on the road to defeat.
They have also triggered criticism of Al-Maliki's government even from members of his own cabinet, many of them criticising the security services for what were described as security breaches, negligence and the overlapping of responsibilities. Abdel-Razak said surveillance cameras had recorded "human errors" by soldiers guarding the council building minutes before the explosions.
Sunday's bombings also come as Washington prepares to withdraw all US combat forces from the country by the end of August 2010 in preparation for a complete US withdrawal by the end of 2011. They raise concerns that a resurrected Sunni insurgency might force the Obama administration to reconsider its decision to pull out troops, especially as US and Iraqi commanders have said that they expect violence to increase before the national elections in January.
So far, the US administration has said that the attacks will not cause the US to rethink its troop withdrawal strategy. "We have an agreement that we have announced to pull combat troops out by August of next year and the rest by the end of 2011. That has not changed in any way," said Michael Ratney, a State Department spokesman.
While the attacks have tested Al-Maliki's government and exposed points of weakness, like other recent bombings they also seem to have been designed to damage the country's Shia-led government by showing that it cannot provide security even to key government departments.
By targeting government buildings the insurgents aim to paralyse the government and prevent people from dealing with it. For this reason, the government's claim that Baathists were behind the attacks has some credibility, even if it lacks concrete evidence.
Following the bombings, Iraq renewed its demands for an international tribunal to investigate what it claimed was foreign involvement in attacks in the country and what it said was support given to insurgents by certain regional countries. Foreign Minister Zebari said on Monday that the tribunal should focus on the support given by foreign countries to the insurgents, adding that the attacks reinforced the need for international support to help Iraq defend itself.
Although Zebari did not name any country, some Iraqi officials have again blamed Syria for harbouring Baathist figures who they allege are directing a campaign against Iraq, something that Syrian officials have denied. Other officials have insinuated that some Gulf Arab countries are involved in trying to influence January's elections by giving money and political support to the insurgency.
Meanwhile, the blasts appear to have jolted the feuding Iraqi political class into action. Calling the attacks an attempt to block the political process, Iraqi politicians swiftly responded by agreeing a compromise on a new election law that had eluded them for weeks and had threatened to delay January's elections.
The new law will now go to the Iraqi parliament for approval. Lawmakers have already missed the deadline to pass the election law, and any delay in the election could upset the fragile security situation in Iraq and affect the Pentagon's timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from the country.


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