Israeli Prime Minister 's decision to call early elections is meant to sideline potential rivals, writes Samir Ghattas On 9 October, Israeli Prime Minister announced that he was calling early elections. Before dissolving itself, the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, set the date for the elections as 22 January 2013. It was a masterful stroke on Netanyahu's part, for none of his potential rivals for the post of prime minister are likely to be able to mount a credible challenge at such short notice. Netanyahu, 63, is the first Israeli prime minister to come from the generation born after the creation of Israel in 1948. He managed to beat one of Israel's veteran politicians, Shimon Peres, in 1996, albeit with only a slight margin. His first term in office was not easy, and, harassed by leftists, pressured by the far right, and trying too hard to placate the military, he had trouble finding his rhythm. Then he made the terrible mistake of antagonising the then US president Bill Clinton on the mistaken assumption that the latter would be forced out of office over the Monica Lewinsky affair. Having been defeated by Ehud Barak in 1999, Netanyahu's popularity ebbed inside the Israeli Likud Party, and some even wrote him off after Ariel Sharon forced Barak out of office in early elections in 2001. Sharon and Netanyahu got along at first, with Sharon making him finance minister in his government. However, Netanyahu conspired against Sharon and eventually forced him to leave the Likud and form the Kadima Party instead in November 2005. Kadima went on to win the 2006 elections, bringing Ehud Olmert to office. Not a man given to despair, Netanyahu then managed to lead a right-wing coalition of 65 MPs and became prime minister once again in March 2009. In his second term, Netanyahu managed to keep the opposition at bay while wiggling out of Israel's commitment to peace, always blaming the Palestinians for the stalemate in the talks. His biggest achievement, however, was his success in shaping US policy on Iran. This started when he offered to dismantle a major Israeli settlement near Nablus on the West Bank in return for a US pledge to force Iran to dismantle its nuclear facilities. Since then, opposition to Iran has become a major strand of US policy and a major international issue. Relations between US president Barack Obama and Netanyahu have not always been smooth, but in matters of foreign policy the US has given Israel all diplomatic support possible, and the two countries are cooperating closely in security matters and in exchanging information on the latest military technology. Netanyahu's record concerning the Israeli economy is less impressive. Prices have kept going up, unemployment has spread, and widespread protests have been staged, with anti-government demonstrators sleeping in tents in Rothschild Square in Tel Aviv at one point. Netanyahu may also have single-handedly wrecked relations with Turkey, first by instigating a diplomatic crisis involving the Turkish ambassador to Israel, and then by intercepting the "Freedom Flotilla" in 2010, leading to a confrontation in which Turkish citizens were killed. Netanyahu claims that on his watch rocket attacks against Israel have decreased. But in the same period, both Hamas and Hizbullah have added to their military potential. Netanyahu has now called for early elections because he has been having trouble getting the budget through the Knesset. However, there have been other reasons, one being that presidential elections in the US usually lead to a mood change in Israel. Netanyahu has lost once because of this change of mood, in 1999, when his policy towards Clinton cost him the elections. It is a mistake he may be about to repeat, for he has made no secret of his admiration for Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Early elections in Israel, especially right after the US elections, are good news for Netanyahu. If Romney wins, he will have bet on a winning horse. If he loses, he will have the time to backtrack. Iran is also part of the reason for Netanyahu's wanting early elections. He has already committed himself to a hard line on Iran, so much so that it will be hard for him to backpedal now. Netanyahu intends to keep the Iranian question at the heart of the election campaign, and, though he may not be doing much about Iran, he hopes to keep the issue alive until another term. So far, Netanyahu's strongest challenger is Ehud Barak, although other names, such as those of Ehud Olmert and even Shimon Peres, have been suggested. Israeli journalists have speculated that the country may be ready for a comeback by Olmert and that Netanyahu's only hope was to pre-empt Olmert by calling early elections before the latter got his act together. Pollsters speak of Olmert as a strong challenger to Netanyahu, and as a result of the early election date Olmert may not have the time to organise in order to turn support into votes. It is not clear, either, if Olmert wants to create a new party or to go back to Kadima. Much the same is true of former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. More perhaps than Olmert, the one who now truely matters is Ehud Barak, who has had a long and contentious relationship with the incumbent prime minister. Netanyahu outranked Barak when the two served in the Israeli Special Forces, and Barak defeated Netanyahu in the 1999 elections. Barak is a leftist who received his political grooming in the ranks of the Labour Party, whereas Netanyahu is a disciple of the far right and a believer in the ideals of Zionist revisionist Ze-ev Jabotinsky. What Barak and Netanyahu have in common, however, is that both are sworn enemies of Kadima, and it was for this reason that Barak accepted the job of defence minister in Netanyahu's government. Barak is now a problem for Netanyahu, and, while he initially supported Netanyahu on the Iranian crisis, he then had second thoughts, expressed in a recent meeting with Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel that was held without Netanyahu's knowledge. Emanuel is known as the campaign director of Barack Obama in the 2008 elections, and he is one of his closest friends. In their meeting, Barak said that he would oppose the Israeli government's budget in the Knesset and oppose Netanyahu's "redline" ultimatum to Iran. Even more damning, Barak proposed a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, which would end the current stalemate in the peace talks. Netanyahu is now hoping that he can neutralise Barak by holding early elections, and the pollsters are indeed unanimous that Barak's Independence Party is not ready for the race. Independence may not even pass the two per cent threshold needed to qualify for parliament. Other factors are also likely to influence Netanyahu's ability to win back the post of prime minister. One of these is the revival of the ultra-orthodox Shas Party under the leadership of Aryeh Deri, who has just finished a prison sentence on corruption charges. Shas may win up to 14 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, and Deri may be tempted to enter into a coalition with the leftist and centrist parties and not with Netanyahu. A new centrist party called Yesh Atid, or "There is a Future," has also come onto the scene. Led by Yair Lapid, Yesh Atin may grab 10 seats in the next parliament, thus adding weight to the centre of Israeli politics. Meanwhile, Labour, under Shelly Yachimovich, a former journalist, is also making a comeback, and pollsters expect it to win about 20 seats. Yachimovich has been appealing to the public's economic concerns, and he says things to the effect that "food in the fridge" is as important as border security. Netanyahu may be ahead in the polls, but he is not resting on his laurels. He has been actively reorganising Likud, while flirting with the far right by endorsing the opinions of judge Edmond Levi, who has called for the setting up of settlements across the West Bank on the grounds that it is a "disputed" area. Last but not least, Shimon Peres has also been mentioned as someone who could defeat Netanyahu. If he were to create a new party, Peres may find himself heading a bloc of 32 seats in the Knesset, pollsters say. For an 89-year-old, this seems like a tall order. But then again, who knows?
