Facing a collapse in its vote, the Muslim Brotherhood is desperate to reassure the public it means what it says, writes Amani Maged The surprise in the first round of the presidential elections was not that Mohamed Mursi would come in first and head to the run-offs against Ahmed Shafik but how narrow the margin was between them. Of 23,265,000 legitimate ballots 5,765,000 were cast for Mursi and 5,505,000 for Shafik, a difference of just 150,000 votes. That was not the only surprise for the Muslim Brotherhood. Despite its organisational capabilities, the group's candidate won only 25 per cent of the vote, down from the 45 per cent the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) secured in the parliamentary elections. The decline in its popularity places the Muslim Brotherhood in an unprecedented dilemma. The causes, Mursi has admitted, can be traced to a number of recent mistakes, not least the Brotherhood's mishandling of the creation of the Constitutional Assembly charged with writing a new constitution, their broken promise not to field a presidential candidate, aloofness from the Egyptian street and condescension towards the media. There is also a fear that should the Muslim Brother seize control over both the legislature and the executive Mursi, as president, would only be a façade. The real ruler of Egypt would be the Muslim Brotherhood's supreme guide. So where did the five million or so votes come from? They were mostly from the membership base of the Muslim Brotherhood and FJP, Salafist groups that formally declared their support for Mursi, Muslim Brotherhood sympathisers and former supporters of Hazem Salah Abu Ismail who shifted their support to Mursi after Abu Ismail was disqualified. Meanwhile, simmering beneath the surface is the stand-off between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) over parliamentary oversight of the military budget. SCAF refuses to have the budget discussed in open parliamentary sessions. In an attempt to separate the adversaries a compromise solution has been proposed, a National Defence Council along the lines of Turkey's Supreme Military Council made up of trustworthy officials approved by all parties. Its decisions would be binding. Against the backdrop of the MB-SCAF tug-of-war and widespread suspicion of Brotherhood plans, political forces have been asking for guarantees, including a "presidential establishment" consisting of representatives of various political trends. There have also been suggestions a coalition government be formed without being headed by a Muslim Brotherhood member. The demands of some parties have been excessive. One insists that the Muslim Brotherhood should dissolve itself because it is not subject to the law that regulates community associations (NGOs) in Egypt. Other parties have said Mursi should step aside to allow Hamdeen Sabahi to compete against Shafik. Such a gesture, they argue, would go a long way to repairing the image of the Muslim Brotherhood as a group thirsting for supreme power. Sabahi would have a greater chance of defeating Shafik and as president would be fair in his treatment of the Islamist trend, while SCAF would not be as uncompromising towards him as it is towards the MB. Ultimately, they argue, national unity would not be imperilled. On Tuesday Mursi embarked on a campaign trail intended to court diverse segments of society with pledges which, he claims, will raise Egypt to the ranks of established democracies. He added that he will codify these promises in a written document that will be distributed to the press. He has pledged that the era of the single "superman" president is over. The presidency will no longer comprise an individual but become an institution with vice presidents and advisors drawn from outside the Muslim Brotherhood and the FJP. He has promised that young people, Copts and women will have significant representation in the presidential establishment, stressing that he will not rule alone and that public welfare will be his dominant consideration. He also vowed that there will be no preference on the basis of affiliation, or at the expense of competence and loyalty to the nation. He pledged to complete the constitution in two months and welcome other parties into the next government. The prime minister, he said, need not come from the FJP but could be an independent or national figure with appropriate qualifications. On the Constitutional Assembly he admitted that mistakes had been made in the process of forming it and affirmed his commitment to the Al-Azhar document. Signed by all political party heads, as well as by the Muslim Brotherhood supreme guide in the presence of the late Pope Shenouda, the document is meant to serve as a framework for the Constitutional Assembly. Mursi praised "faithful policemen" and the Armed Forces which protected the revolution. He stressed there is no difference between Copts and Muslims and that wherever possible Copts would serve the presidential establishment as advisors and representatives. He vowed that the right to peaceful protest would be a basic principle of his rule, adding that young Egyptians, who make up more than two thirds of the population, will be represented in the presidential establishment and on governorate and municipal councils. The youth are "a very powerful energy for carrying the message into the future," he said. He promised women's rights would be guaranteed and denied rumours that under Muslim Brotherhood rule women will be forced to wear the veil. "These are matters of personal rights and freedoms. A woman should have the right to choose the attire she feels appropriate, and to choose her job, her husband, and her way of life without anyone interfering." He promised to restore rights to farmers. "The Egyptian farmer will regain his prestige and we will support him instead of diminishing his rights," he said. He also promised that those with special needs would be given new employment opportunities. He also pledged to promote tourism, a major source of employment and hard currency, saying he would encourage all types of investment in the sector to increase job openings for young people and to raise the standards of living. He would also offer support to businessmen to encourage investment in production and stimulate an "industrial and commercial renaissance that will elevate Egypt's standing among the nations of the world and enable it to compete". Mursi also spoke of reviving Egypt's regional leadership and it pioneering role in international relations. Yet despite Mursi's promises anxieties over the prospect of Muslim Brotherhood rule remain. Liberals, in particular, fear the Brotherhood will turn Egypt into a theocracy ruled by the Supreme Guide and that Mursi's pledges to be a president for all Egyptians will turn into a sick joke. The business community, too, is anxious. They see the Muslim Brotherhood throwing an Islamic cloak over all business and financial transactions, abolishing banks which, under Islamic Sharia, are regarded as usurious. People in the tourist sector are also alarmed. They fear that if the Muslim Brothers outlaw alcohol and forbid beachwear they will drive the final nail into the coffin of the Egyptian tourist industry. People in the press and media are biting their nails at the prospect of Muslim Brotherhood rule. The Shura Council is already studying changes to the organisation of the press that could see Muslim Brothers take charge of the state owned media. Some political analysts fear how the Muslim Brotherhood, with its connections with Hamas, will handle the Palestinian cause, possibly abrogating the Camp David peace treaty and inviting Israeli intervention in Sinai. Fears and anxieties abound. The Muslim Brothers are trying hard to dispel them before the runoffs. It is far from clear that they will succeed.
