As usual, oil revenues are at the heart of the latest war scare, notes Asmaa El-Husseini The governments of north and south Sudan, having failed in negotiations, are edging closer to military confrontation. In a sudden escalation, South Sudan has sent troops into the oil-rich Heglig area, which supplies Sudan with nearly half of its oil needs. Its message is that, since it can no longer export its oil through the north (which is asking for high transit fees), it would make life harder for Khartoum. With war looming on the borders, both Sudan and South Sudan have failed to resolve any of their outstanding issues, including the conflicts in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile. Their biggest failure, however, is their inability to reach a deal on oil ownership, production, and distribution. The secession, which was supposed to resolve some of the existing problems, has created a new set of issues, ranging from the weakened economy to a gamut of befuddled legalities involving residence and travel rights for thousands of people stranded on the wrong side of the borders. The apparent failure of the governments of Khartoum and Juba to address these issues casts doubts on their abilities to bring about the progress and prosperity they had promised their respective nations. Juba is incensed that Khartoum wanted to charge it one third of the price of oil in transit fees. Khartoum, for its part, says that it has built the oil infrastructure and deserves to recoup some of its investment. As the negotiations ground to a halt, Juba decided to stop producing oil altogether, a decision that deprives it from 98 per cent of its national income. The repercussions of this move are painful for both Juba and Khartoum. On the one hand, South Sudan will be left without the source of income that was supposed to fund its nascent institutions and help revive its economy. On the other hand, Khartoum would be left high and dry without the oil exports, which previously stood at 0.5 million barrel/day. Khartoum lost three-quarters of its oil revenue after the secession, and now it is poised to lose the rest. Juba has taken a big gamble in occupying the vital oil fields of Heglig. It clearly wishes to force Khartoum into offering better terms for trade and travel, but its action may provoke another war. Until only a few days ago, African mediators led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki were working hard to mediate between Juba and Khartoum. The sudden flare-up in the borders doesn't augur well for these efforts. If anything, it makes it clear that the problems facing north and south Sudan are much harder to resolve than once though. The international community has asked Juba to pull out its troops from Heglig and advised Khartoum to exercise self- restraint. But with the war of words continuing between the north and south, few expect the current crisis to be easily defused. Juba is aware that Khartoum is facing international isolation, and by challenging its authority on border areas, hopes to provoke the kind of reaction that deepens its isolation. Meanwhile, the Khartoum government is having trouble with its efforts to bring about national reconciliation. Although it keeps pretending to be democratically elected, the government of Omar Al-Bashir is weakened by internal divisions as well as by the International Criminal Court arrest warrant on the president. Juba is aware of all that, and hopes to bank on the international sympathy it has gained as a newly independent nation. The southerners have had a rough deal during the civil war, and it may not be hard for the government of Juba to rally them behind the cause of war. But this is a double- edged sword, for without peace, the hopes of development and progress that the independence was supposed to bring about would evaporate. In Khartoum, the government is likely to use its propaganda machine in an attempt to depict the border clashes as a matter of life and death. Whether the public will accept this as a fact remains to be seen. There must be a lot of Sudanese who see further wars as an exercise in futility. But their opinions don't seem to be taken seriously by those in power, on both sides of the borders.
