Dina Ezzat tramps through the political quagmire Speculation over the fate of the presidential elections is already rife, however hushed the tones. Just weeks ahead of the scheduled poll and some political sources are suggesting it could be delayed. "It is a scenario that should not be excluded. I am not saying it is happening, but it could," says one source close to the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). The delay, he suggests, could come about should the constitutional court rule that parliament be dissolved. In such a case the political process in play since Hosni Mubarak was ousted from power on 11 February last year would have to be re-modified. Campaign staff members of the key presidential candidates say they detect no intention on the part of SCAF to take such a risky route. "The political cost would be high and everybody, SCAF included, will be paying the price. To further delay the presidential elections means the already slim prospects for stability would be eliminated," said one campaign advisor. Another suggested that while such a delay might "help SCAF find a candidate for president" it would tarnish both SCAF and Egypt's image "It would serve to confirm the many rumours that SCAF always intended to hold on to power and would render Egypt a no-go area for donors and foreign investors," suggested another. Political activists, who have long viewed the transitional phase as undermining the aspirations of the 25 January Revolution, would interpret the delay as going back to square one. "It would mean Mubarak left only to be replaced by SCAF. This would be unacceptable to all revolutionaries," says activist Mina Nagui. Dissolving parliament, viewed by many as a necessary prelude to delaying presidential elections, is technically the prerogative of the constitutional court, and any court decision could be affected by political developments. This move, should it be taken by the supreme court, would open the way for an all-out political war between SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) who are already involved in a weeks-long exercise of arms twisting -- with SCAF the still more powerful side that decides when and when not to accommodate the political demands of the MB. "If the court feels the current political tug-of-war between the MB and SCAF is escalating into a fully-fledged confrontation then it may decide to dissolve parliament in order to avert a clash that is bound to harm basic national interests," said one source with links to both SCAF and the Brotherhood's political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP). Relations between SCAF and the MB have been in flux following the end of the honeymoon the two enjoyed immediately following Mubarak's ouster. In recent days the row between the two sides has been increasingly vocalised as both released angry statements. Disagreements are focussed on the fate of the SCAF-appointed Kamal El-Ganzouri government, which the FJP and its Islamist parliamentary allies want sacked. They also differed on the composition of the constituent assembly, currently packed with Islamists, that will draft a new constitution, Diaa Rashwan, the director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, believes that sooner or later the two sides will have to back off from their current collision course since the alternative would be disastrous for the national interest, and for SCAF's and the Islamists' political agendas. Two politicians who attended a meeting on Tuesday between SCAF generals and political forces agree with Rashwan's assessment. However confrontational their recent statements, the tone adopted at the meeting by both SCAF and the FJP suggested divorce is by no means imminent. "You could say they are currently jockeying in an attempt to show which has the most leverage," said one. "At the end of the meeting it appeared SCAF still had the upper hand and the Muslim Brotherhood seemed aware that it was not in its best interest to escalate the fight." For Rashwan the fact the meeting was scheduled to resume today indicates "a formula for reconciliation can be worked out if we think out of the box." One possibility, suggests Rashwan, would be for the government to be reshuffled to allow for the inclusion of ministers supported by the MB. It should also enable the constituent assembly to keep its predominant Islamist majority while the actual drafting of the constitution is to be executed by a few selected members whose choice should reflect a more egalitarian representation of Islamists and non-Islamists. Sources say in recent days the MB has retreated from nominating a presidential candidate from either its own ranks or those of the FJP. The Brotherhood's reneging on earlier promises that it would not field a presidential candidate was perceived by SCAF as an attempt to flex muscle. Brotherhood leaders seemed to be suggesting that if they cannot decide the fate of the government they could still control not only parliament and the constituent assembly but the presidency as well. "Delays over the announcement of the name of the group's presidential candidate suggest the plan might be dropped all together," says one MB member. Should SCAF and the MB reach agreement over the fate of the government, constitution and the presidency, then the collapse of the current political process, including delaying presidential elections, could be avoided. But it is far from certain to tell whether this would mean political forces -- whose representatives have already walked out of the constituent assembly in protest against the hegemony imposed by the Islamists -- will be willing to accept the deal and play along. Some of those who withdrew from the assembly are unwilling to continue to accept whatever scraps come their way courtesy of a deal reached between the Brotherhood and SCAF. Deliberations on what to do next are underway among the political forces that have so far been effectively marginalised. Meanwhile presidential candidates are gearing up to garner support for an election they insist must be held as planned. Earlier this week Mansour Hassan, widely seen as the SCAF-Muslim Brotherhood candidate indicated he would not run, while Ayman Nour, a long-time opponent of the Mubarak regime and a former MP, joined the race on Wednesday following a decision by the head of SCAF Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi to drop all criminal charges made against him during the last few years of the former regime. The charges had so far blocked his attempt to stand in Egypt's first post-revolution presidential elections.
