As the transitional period draws to a close Egypt's regional role has been increasingly marginalised, writes Ahmed Eleiba Weakened by controversy over its management of the transitional period, SCAF is losing ground both at home and abroad. A military source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "after months of being ruled by SCAF Egypt's stature has eroded". SCAF's mismanagement, he says, has resulted in "some international parties no longer thinking of Cairo as a place where regional affairs can be handled". The recent civil society quarrel with Washington, the source argues, is only one aspect of a much larger problem in US-Egyptian relations. "Egypt has shown a lot of sympathy towards the Iranian nuclear programme, which has made the US suspicious of Cairo's intentions towards Tehran. The Iranian programme seems to have military intentions and its outcome hinges solely on a political decision by Tehran. Washington is worried about Egypt's reaction. In addition, security arrangements in Sinai cause endless problems. Israel has tried to resolve this issue by building a border wall with Egypt at a considerable cost." There are also political and human rights problems in Egypt that concern both the US and Europe. "It is not surprising that, following recent visits by senior US military commanders to Cairo, military manoeuvres with Egypt were cancelled," the source added. A recent report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies speaks of an arms race involving Gulf countries and Iran. Syria, too, is spending more on defence, with some help from the Iranians. Most of its weapons come from Russia, which is closely following the situation in the region. The Russians are increasingly worried about the future of the Syrian regime, their leading ally in the region. General Gamal Mazloum, a military adviser at the Naif Arab University for Security Sciences in Riyadh, says SCAF's failures in running Egypt have undermined Cairo's ability to influence future security arrangements in the region. "I came back from Belgium a few days ago where I took part in a conference on regional developments. There was no one representing Egypt at the conference. I am Egyptian but I was there to represent Saudi Arabia." Mazloum believes the Mubarak regime deliberately marginalised the role of the Egyptian military. "We need to compare ourselves with Israel. It is standard military practice to try to keep up with potential enemies. But there is a lack of clarity, and rivalries exist among those handling Egypt's national security. As a result Egypt is being excluded from talks involving security matters, emergency arrangements, and other issues that may end up boosting Israel's position." Meanwhile, the Gulf is stockpiling weapons as never before. "The arms race in the Gulf is not a fiction. It is a reality prompted by the prospect of war with Iran. Saudi Arabia is signing arms deals for the next 10 years with Washington. The UAE is buying the sophisticated THUD (Theatre High Altitude Defence) system," says Mazloum. Strained Egyptian-Saudi relations are making things worse. The problems started over the handling of Mubarak's trial, and were complicated by the way Cairo treated Saudi investments after the revolution. Riyadh is now coordinating with other Arab countries over Syria, and Egypt is not being consulted. The US and its allies are also worried about the way SCAF is handling things. A senior official who escorted John McCain during his recent talks in Cairo attributed the following remark to US official. "When we met with SCAF, we had no clear idea about where they stood. They had no answers ready on anything." The Muslim Brotherhood, meanwhile, left a good impact on the Americans. The US military is also displeased with the way Cairo is reacting to regional matters, including the situation in Syria. Brigadier General Safwat El-Zayyat, a military expert on Libya, believes the war in Libya convinced NATO that it did not need Arab assistance. "Planes flew from US bases in Italy and Turkey. The US didn't need Egyptian help in these arrangements. It was Cairo that needed to get involved but instead did nothing and allowed others to take the lead," says El-Zayyat. Many people want to chip away at Egypt's regional role, points out Ahmed Hossam Khairallah, a former director of information at Egyptian general intelligence. "The Israelis have been active in Libya since the revolution... There are many unconfirmed reports which we cannot afford to ignore. Already, we know that Israel is active in south Sudan." Cairo, says General Sameh Seif El-Yazal, was not asked to play a part during the war on Libya. "US forces used a base close to the Egyptian borders for a while, even before the fall of the Libyan regime, but this activity has since ended." Libya is widely reported to harbour resentments over Cairo's reluctance to help the 17 February Revolution. According to Ali Saleh, a specialist in strategic affairs, SCAF failed to clamp down on pro-Qaddafi activities in Egypt and this has alienated some Libyans. The Libyan chief of staff was recently in Cairo to discuss the smuggling of arms and drugs. "Weapons that only conventional armies should possess have been spilling over the border from Libya," Saleh said. "Rockets have been found in the possession of civilians. The weapons are being brought in fishing boats from areas near Al-Barada in Libya to locations near Alamein in Egypt. The arms are not just destined for the Egyptian market. Some are moved on. Washington and Tel Aviv find this particularly disturbing, especially when weapons started arriving in Gaza. According to Saleh, a document leaked by Russia revealing Israel is seeking a foothold around Jabal Akhdar, northeast of Benghazi, has rung alarm bells in Cairo. Neither does the West appear interested in Egypt playing any role in Syria. Cairo is perhaps being frozen out to punish it for its reluctance to help the Western military action that brought down Qaddafi. During the recent visit by Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi to Libya Saleh believes Interim President Mustafa Abdel-Jalil was sincere about improving ties with Egypt but may have his hands tied by pro-Western Libyans opposed to the move. There were several protests during Tantawi's visit. Tarek Fahmi, an expert in Israeli affairs and a lecturer at the Nasser Academy for Military Sciences, reveals that though Egypt has asked the Israelis to halt all visits and keep communication to a minimum, Cairo and Tel Aviv are discussing urgent matters, including border arrangements and Egyptian military deployment in Sinai. Remarkably, it was Jordan that mediated between Ramallah and Tel Aviv during recent talks. Is Cairo being excluded from its traditional role as go-between in Palestinian-Israeli talks? Foreign Ministry officials have declined to answer the question, saying only that they are following the situation "closely". Jackie Khoury, an Arab Israeli analyst, said in a telephone interview that Israeli and American politicians were disappointed with SCAF's tardiness in reacting to urgent situations. The Americans, out of pragmatism, have been edging closer to the MB, causing concern in Israel, which has a lot of worries about Hamas. "Israel doesn't trust anyone in Egypt at present," says Khoury, though both Tel Aviv and Washington remain keen on keeping good ties with Cairo, especially when it comes to security arrangements. US Chief of Staff General Martin Dempsey, who held talks in Cairo recently, believes Washington should postpone any new arrangements with Egypt until a president is elected. "For now the Americans are monitoring and keeping their eye on things. This doesn't mean that NATO, Mossad and the CIA are not doing what they always do," says Khoury. According to Khoury, Barack Obama told Binyamin Netanyahu that Washington was not ready for another war in the region and that no new hostilities should be considered until the situation in Syria is resolved. Netanyahu, points out El-Zayyat, returned from Washington with valuable assets. He was promised tanker aircraft to refuel planes in mid flight and offered a squadron of F35s, a plane so sophisticated that it is not going to be commissioned into service in America for another three years. Israel will also receive JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) GBU-31, designed to attack deep concrete bunkers, for possible use against Iran. Regional security issues, says El-Zayyat, are now being handled by outsiders, and the focus is on Iran and Israel. "This is how the West sees the Middle East now... Saudi Arabia and the UAE are developing their weapons capabilities and this has made them more and more dismissive of Cairo, especially when the American keep telling them that any attacks against Gulf states... will be handled without any problem." Cairo, say experts, can expect to be excluded from regional security arrangements for years to come. General Qadri Said, military adviser at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, believes it will take a decade for Egypt to regain its former influence in regional security matters: "Cairo will be a player in the future. Part of the training of the Egyptian army is geared towards maintaining Gulf security. We cannot forget the solid record of the Egyptian army. But what matters now is putting the Egyptian house in order domestically and politically. This will reflect on our foreign policy and the way Egypt is perceived abroad."
