Despite recent tensions regarding the trial of US civil society personnel in Cairo, US-Egyptian strategic relations will survive intact, writes El-Sayed Amin Shalabi* There was a time, following the 1952 Revolution, when Egypt's young leaders placed great hopes on the United States. With Washington's help, they thought, they would rebuild the Egyptian army and figure out a way to improve the standards of living in the country. With hindsight, it is ironic. Disappointment set in on both sides. First, US diplomats were shocked that Egypt wouldn't join the regional defence arrangements NATO had designed for the region. Then the Egyptians were horrified when the US declined to join the international consortium that was supposed to finance their biggest project, the High Dam. The Cold War story that followed led to the 1967 defeat and left lingering bitterness that can still be felt to this day. Anwar El-Sadat turned Nasserist policies around, first by distancing himself from the Russians and then, following the 1973 War, by signing the Camp David Accords. Sadat's mending of fences with the US came at a price, for Egypt ended up being estranged from other Arab countries. Coming to power after Sadat's assassination in 1981, Mubarak tried to steer a middle way. To placate the Russians, he invited some of their experts back into the country for work in the High Dam and the Helwan steel factories. Meanwhile, he followed up on the implementation of the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty. Despite the close relations Mubarak's Egypt maintained with the US, Cairo was not always prepared to toe the US line. Egypt made it clear that it opposed the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and was appalled when the Americans forced its plane down in Italy during the Achille Lauro affair. The US bombing of Benghazi in 1986 strained relations between Cairo and the Reagan administration. Still, Egypt and the US managed to stage the 1992 peace conference in Madrid, an event that set the tone for a decade of close Egyptian-US relations. Yet Cairo and Washington had divergent points of view on a number of issues. The Egyptians often criticised the US for its unquestioning support of Israel, and the Americans kept pushing for economic and security cooperation between Egypt and Israel, something that Cairo was hesitant about. The big boost to US-Egyptian relations came during the 1991 Gulf War, when Egyptian troops took part in the liberation of Kuwait. To show gratitude for the Egyptian role in this war, Washington wrote off $7 billion of Egypt's military debts. During the presidency of George W Bush, tensions resumed over the issue of democratisation in the Arab world. And yet Cairo and Washington continued to cooperate in many fields, leading to the QIZ (Qualified Industrial Zones) agreement and to Egypt's export of natural gas to Israel. Consequently, Cairo allowed US navy vessels to pass through the Suez Canal on their way to the Gulf during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And Egyptian officials also kept Tehran at arms length throughout the crisis over the Iranian nuclear programme. For several decades, security matters has been at the core of US-Egyptian relations, with the joint manoeuvres known as Bright Star cementing ties between the military outfits of both nations. Obama's election brought new hope for improved ties. One of Obama's first actions in office was to commit to a two-state solution in Palestine, a decision that was greeted with satisfaction in Cairo but produced no tangible results. Egypt's 2010 parliamentary elections sowed discord in bilateral ties. A US spokesman said that the White House was disturbed by the numerous reports of fraud, the obstruction of foreign observers, and the muzzling of the press. With the 25 January Revolution, things got better. The revolution seemed to validate the Obama administration's position on democracy and human rights. Still, the US initially hedged its bets. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in one of her earlier statements, said that the Egyptian regime was "stable" and that the Egyptian president (Mubarak) was an "ally" of the US. As protests escalated, a spokesman for the White House said that the Egyptian government should "listen" to the aspirations of the people, respect their democratic rights, and introduce political, economic and social reform. Then Obama stated that the time for change had come in Egypt. Hillary Clinton confirmed this statement, pointing out that a transfer of power to an elected civilian authority was advisable. The deputy secretary of state, William Burns, urged Egypt to hold fair and free elections and encourage the emergence of an independent civil society. For a while, it was smooth sailing, with both countries holding close consultations over various points of policy. Then came the surprise raids on civil society organisations in Cairo to spoil the mood. Following the raids, State Department spokeswoman Victorian Nuland said that US assistance to Egypt may be affected because of Cairo's handling of the crisis. Egypt's foreign ministry shot back, saying that Egypt doesn't tolerate "foreign interference". Minister of International Cooperation Fayza Abul-Naga said that the whole matter was but a lawful procedure conducted by the judiciary. This prompted Jeffrey Feltman, assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, to travel to Cairo in an attempt to defuse the situation. While discussing the situation with Egyptian diplomats, Feltman said that Egypt remains America's top ally in the Arab world. Another factor that impacted on Egyptian-US relations was the sweeping victories by Islamists in the parliamentary elections. Washington made it clear that it was prepared to cooperate with the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) as well as other Islamist currents. Senator John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, visited the Muslim Brotherhood headquarters in Cairo to discuss, among other things, the group's intentions regarding the peace treaty with Israel. During a visit to Cairo on 11 January 2013, William Burns met the deputy leader of the FJP and promised economic support to Egypt. On 4 February, Hillary Clinton warned that the security campaign against civil society organisations could hamper US aid to Egypt. Feltman, for his part, said that the US must be more sensitive to Egyptian public opinion, because the Egyptian government, being democratically elected, will be increasingly influenced by public opinion. The civil society crisis is the first test of post-revolutionary Egyptian-US relations. Throughout this crisis, American officials made it clear that maintaining good relations with Egypt was a top priority. The US chief of joint staff said that hints that the US may discontinue assistance to Egypt were unhelpful, as both countries have something to gain from their bilateral cooperation. Summarising the situation, the US State Department spokeswoman said that the US is still committed to strong bilateral relations with Egypt, adding that these relations are still strong despite recent tensions. What the recent crisis teaches us is that future US- Egyptian relations are likely to be strewn with differences, but that both countries will strive to resolve these differences in a pragmatic matter. Too much is at stake, and both Cairo and Washington are aware of the mutual benefits they obtain from their continued cooperation. * The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council for foreign Affairs.
