When it comes to Syria the divisions on the Security Council mirror those among the Arabs, writes Graham Usher at the United Nations The quiet consensus on the UN Security Council is that when Arab Foreign Ministers meet in Cairo on 22 January they will renew the Arab league's troubled mission in Syria -- not because it has been success, but because there is no collective desire to call it a failure. "The Arabs will say the cup is half full," predicted a UN diplomat. Others would say the League's month long "peace" mission has run dry. While "the pace of the killing has fallen with the presence of the observers" in Syria, said Arab League Secretary-General Nabil El-Arabi on 13 January, the Syria regime had only partially met pledges to withdraw the army from cities, free political prisoners and start a serious dialogue with the opposition, all key parts of the League's peace plan. Without progress on these "I fear a civil war," said El-Arabi. Some would allege a civil war has long simmered in Syria, and that the League may have fanned it. Various Syria opposition groups (and some human rights organisations) claim the mission has only bought the regime more time to crush and militarise what had been a largely peaceful uprising. President Bashar Al-Assad says the League is part of a "plot" against Syria that includes the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda, the United States and Israel. Syria's suspension from the League in November -- and by implication its whole mission -- is simply another case where the League had "failed to take a position in the Arab interest," charged the Syrian dictator. On the ground League observers have been attacked by regime thugs and protesters in Latakia, Deir Al-Zur and other Syrian cities. And at least two have denounced the mission as a "farce". The Al-Assad government "fabricated most of what we saw to stop the Arab League from taking action against the regime", said Anwar Malek, an Algeria observer who resigned in anger from the mission on 11 January. "The regime isn't committing one war crime but a series of war crimes against its people." None of this means the mission will receive a bullet of mercy, say analysts. This is because the Arabs are divided on what would happen should it die. The Gulf States -- led by Qatar, but backed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates -- have concluded the mission is basically defunct and would like its peace plan referred to the Security Council for enforcement. On 14 January Qatar Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, suggested sending Arab troops to help do this and to "stop the killing". But others -- led by Algeria but supported by Iraq and probably Sudan -- fear any referral could start a Libya-like internationalisation of the Syria crisis, leading inexorably to outside intervention. In New York, Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci told reporters that while the Syrian regime could do more to defuse the crisis, it is now "making more of an effort". But "the Arab league is especially having problems with the armed (Syrian) opposition." Arab divisions mirror those on the Security Council. Having condemned the Arab League for suspending Syria, Russia's UN envoy Vitaly Churkhin now calls the mission the "most important game in the game", on whose success "the future of Syria may hinge." He has counseled "patience" with the League for "as long as it takes for the political crisis (in Syria) to be brought to an end". Russian caution is backed by Council members China, India, South Africa and Pakistan. But patience is wearing thin among the Western states. "I think it's clear�ê� the (Arab) monitoring mission should not continue indefinitely. We cannot permit Al-Assad and his regime to have impunity," said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington on 11 January, standing alongside Qatari premier Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani, who seemed to agree. The day before US UN envoy Susan Rice claimed that since the Arab mission had been in Syria, Damascus had accelerated the rate of killing of protesters to "an average of 40 a day, a rate much higher than was the case even before [the observers'] deployment". (Arab officials disputed her math). Away from the claims, the real question is what will the Security Council do if and when the Arab League reaches its moment of indecision? Western countries like Britain and France say they are not going to let Syria drop from the UN agenda. If Russia refuses to proceed with its draft resolution, Western states on the council may submit their own. Analysts say this will likely give full backing to the Arab League peace plan and may include sanctions or at least their threat. But they add the only way such a resolution can avoid a Russian veto is if it comes with a solid Arab consensus. And that consensus is nowhere in sight.
