Urgent action -- rather than words of wisdom -- is sorely needed to transform post-Gaddafi trans-Saharan geopolitics, counsels Gamal Nkrumah "Revolutions are brought about by men that think as men of action and act as men of thought" -- Kwame Nkrumah Tunis is setting the pace and Tripoli trails far behind. Saturday, 14 January 2012, marks the first anniversary of the first Arab nation to witness the Arab Spring. The Tunisian Revolution was an inspiration to all the other Arab nations that followed suit, though in radically different directions. Violent swings in the national mood of neighbouring Libya augur ill, and reinforce suspicions that the country's political crisis has a long way to run. Libya, like Tunisia, must carefully consider its relations with Europe in particular and the West in general. Tunisia has sailed through the global financial crisis, even though the tourism sector, the country's lifeline and engine of economic growth floundered and poverty is not falling. Tunisia, the trendsetter, is steering a course through a contagion of political instability and uncertainty all around it. The doubts about post-Gaddafi Libya were encapsulated in a warning by the International Criminal Court based in The Hague warning the Libyan authorities to uphold justice and expressing concern over the fate of the late Libyan leader's son and onetime heir apparent Seif Al-Islam. He is not out of the woods yet. But world focus is now on Tunisia's democratically-elected leadership. The Arab awakening's conflagration is generating more than just horrified fascination from the Western world's policy-makers. Moncef Marzouki vows to live up to the old Maoist revolutionary dictum: serve the people. Marzouki's skillful brinkmanship can give Tunisia a chance. Politicking in Tunis has handed the post-Ben Ali democratically elected administration a further, though potentially dangerous, negotiating tool. Tunisia has become the flag bearer of multiparty democracy in North Africa and the Arab world. The Tunisian theatre unsettles authoritarian regimes in region -- including Algeria and Sudan. Tunisian leaders, like their Libyan counterparts, must iron out such tactical differences with their neighbours. For Libya, however, there is a larger, strategic question. Libya must put its house in order. Gaddafi had long backed the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Khalil Ibrahim, Al-Bashir's bete-noire, who was assassinated by the authorities in Sudan last month. The cold-blooded murder of Khalil was a serious setback to JEM and closed once and for all the controversial chapter of Gaddafi's escapades in Africa in general and Sudan in particular. Libya -- as the West's latest pawn -- is now called upon to dance to the tune of both the economics and politics of the globalisation of Africa -- a policy that Gaddafi, from a Western viewpoint, failed miserably to execute. Secularism has become a hard point to press in the Arab and Islamic worlds. African nascent democracies are grappling with the prickly topic of political Islam and democracy. Sudan is a self-styled Islamist state and so all eyes in the region are watching developments in Libyan-Sudanese relations with much interest and in some quarters, trepidation. Libya, for its part, has recognised Sudan's strategic importance as a trading partner and ideological Siamese twin. Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir's visit to Libya this week highlights strategic decisions facing the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) of Libya. Tribalism and regionalism are threatening Libyan post-Gaddafi political stability. Can Libya learn something from the Sudanese experience? "Libyan youth will protect the 15 February Revolution," reads a banner in Benghazi, Libya's second largest city. In response, Abdel-Razik Al-Ardy, NTC representative from Tripoli announced that the NTC decided that Benghazi, where the spark of the 15 February Revolution was first ignited, will serve as Libya's economic hub in the new decentralised dispensation. Benghazi will host the crucial ministries of the economy and oil. The Cyrenaican city of Derna was declared the culture capital of the country and the Ministry of Culture is scheduled to relocate there in the near future. Misrata, a traditional trading hub will house the Finance Ministry. The question of federalism has been put on the back-burner. This, after all, pushes Libya's buttons. That NTC in Libya fails to see this raises serious questions about its judgement. Libya's weight in Washington and in Africa, too, rises and falls with its influence in Sudan and in Africa south of the Sahara. Strategic decisions in the context of the NTC's Africa policy will not be settled soon. But these crucial decisions cannot be deferred for long. Al-Bashir's first visit to Libya since the fall of the Gaddafi regime is a reminder that Libya will need to play the role of preferred ally to Sudan in the Sub-Saharan African region, especially in the Saharan and Sahelian countries to the immediate south of Libya. Tripoli and Khartoum have a great deal in common. But even where their interests coincide, as in Africa, the pair have divergent priorities. The NTC has distanced itself from the hubristic, go-it-alone attitude that characterised the four-decades-long Gaddafi iron-fisted dominion. The new emphasis on political alliances is crucial to the economic future of Africa. However, if Libya takes the lead less often than in the Gaddafi era, countries such as Sudan must play a bigger regional role. Libya's domestic concerns and climate of political instability mean that its ability to carry out Gaddafi-style interventions in Africa will be severely curtailed. The NTC had threatened to truncate Libya's diplomatic relations with African countries, and particularly those that had close ties with Gaddafi. "We will announce a system for the security structure of the army and the establishment of police and border guards," declared NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdel-Jalil. Most African experts on the subject, even those who were not necessarily fond of the late Libyan leader believe that anti-African threats can be politically counterproductive. Libyan Prime Minister Abdel-Rahman Al-Keib pledged to mend fences with African nations. Under the circumstances the type of funding that characterised Gaddafi's largesse for African potentates can no longer be undertaken by the NTC. An active African role for Libya will not be cheap. Moreover, there are the messy ideological squabbles. Legal processes are not without their own poignant problems. And, particularly since the Islamist jurisprudence that is poised to replace Gaddafi's secularist legal system is the subject of serious debate. Secularists in the Arab and Muslim worlds are coming under intensifying pressure to adopt a more confrontational stance on this issue. The NTC is in a muddle. Nearby Tunisia has a diametrically opposed scenario, with a beloved leftist unifying figure already president -- Marzouki. The Tunisian president's inaugural speech gives his country a lifeline. Marzouki has also initiated meaningful dialogue with moderate Islamists on a number of key questions and looks poised to squaring the circle. In sharp contrast, the unreconstructed Al-Bashir claimed during his Tripoli visit that probably no country has gained as much from the fall of Gaddafi as Sudan. Such gaffes, while casting Gaddafi in an unappealing light, while hobnobbing with the late Libyan leader are unforgivable offences. That said, there remains some reluctance in Tripoli to move more quickly to the next stage of domestic reform and this is likely to intensify political tensions in the country. Abdel-Jalil flew to Rome to cement ties with Europe. Italy is Libya biggest trading partner and Italian companies such as Finmeccanica, Impreglio and ENI, the biggest foreign energy producer in Libya. This said, elements within the NTC recognise that the honeymoon for this perfect match is just beginning. As a result, post-Gaddafi has begun to re-evaluate its African, Arab and European ties. Again, Tunisia is the ideal role-model for Libya.
