It's been nearly 10 months since the start of protests in Syria, but the regime still believes it can quash the uprising by brute force, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus This was an unprecedented year for Syria. For the first time since the Syrian Baath Party came to power nearly 50 years ago, the Syrian people rose up and began a peaceful revolution demanding freedom, dignity and democracy against a regime used to suppressing opposition by force. Nearly 10 months ago, some children in Deraa in southern Syria, who were influenced by the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia and swept over Egypt, Yemen and Libya, wrote graffiti on the wall of a school demanding the fall of the regime. Their graffiti ignited a revolution, initially peaceful, now one of the most bloody and violent of the Arab revolts. Syrian intelligence arrested them for weeks without their parents knowing anything about them. Security officers refused to release them and ignored the pleas of their families. Their relatives chanted in the street for freedom, but they did not mean freedom just for their children but for all of the Syrian people. Like any totalitarian regime, security forces used excessive force with the small crowd, spilling blood. Civilians were killed and the small protest within days had become a massive demonstration demanding freedom and the prosecution of security agency leaders who gave the orders to kill. Like a snowball, protests spread across the country, beginning with the towns and villages in Deraa. Security forces not only used force in Deraa but also live ammunition against anyone who took part in demonstrations, irrespective of their demands. As the number of deaths rose, towns were invaded, property destroyed and thousands of young people arrested. The ceiling of demands evolved from abstract demands for freedom and dignity to root and branch political demands. These included the freedom to form political parties, the right to rotation of power, the dissolution of intelligence agencies and others. All this without realising that these demands spelt the end of the incumbent totalitarian regime in Syria. Three months into the revolution, the demand became one of overthrowing the regime entirely. The Syrian regime not only relied on security agencies that some monitors estimate at more than half a million security personnel, but the regular army, deployed in the crackdown against protesters. The army invaded Deraa, Hama, Homs and other restive areas using heavy artillery to stop demonstrations. Some cities and towns were transformed into military barracks while some districts seemed more like war zones than sites of protest. The Syrian president gave three speeches to the people that observers described as ineffective in ending the protests, because he did not propose solutions, except through security means and promises of reform that the people have waited for now for five decades. According to the opposition, his speeches fell short of the demands and aspirations of the people. The Syrian leadership did not listen to the counsel of its allies either, and continued its violent security policies in the belief that it could suppress the protests and end them, and then begin the reform process according to its own vision. As towns were raided, the Syrian government issued a series of decisions that did not satisfy Syrians. These included repealing emergency law (replaced with another law that is very similar). It also allowed the formation of political parties, but placed restrictive conditions on their creation. Similarly, a law for the freedom of the media was passed, but in practice the media remained under the control of the security agencies. Instead of implementing fast and effective reforms, the regime and pro-government media boasted about its achievements and derided the fall of leaders of Tunisia and Egypt. The official media adopted a dreary and hostile attitude that ignored co-citizenship in one homeland between the revolutionaries and the regime. It propagated open animosity and all-out confrontation. The international media, meanwhile, was not allowed entry into Syria, with several reporters arrested or deported. Revolutionaries relied on their cell phones to upload footage of systematic killings and violence by the regime against demonstrators, which made some observers call the Syrian revolution the "YouTube revolution". The regime's key allies abandoned it; Turkey, which had a strategic relationship with Syria, became an enemy, and the same thing happened with Qatar whose emir was a personal friend of the Syrian president. European states advised the Syrian president to carry out immediate, urgent and genuine reforms, but this advice fell on deaf ears. The regime used excessive force and propaganda to muddle facts. It claimed a "universal conspiracy" against it and accused the US, Europe and Arab states of being part of the conspiracy to put an end to the "resistance posture" Syria represents -- according to the regime -- in the region. The regime also accused revolutionaries of being terrorists, of constituting armed militias and following the diktat of foreign agents, while refusing all but security solutions. The Syrian opposition and observers assert that the Syrian regime has spared no method -- however brutal -- in suppressing the opposition. It removed the larynx of Ibrahim Al-Qashush, who sang for the revolution; broke the fingers of caricaturist Ali Farzat, who drew for the revolution; killed the "graffitist" of the revolution who wrote slogans against the president on school walls; and arrested many media persons and artists because of their support for the revolution. The regime also beat university students and mutilated the bodies of children, killed women and the elderly, and arrested tens of thousands of Syrians since the start of the uprising, according to human rights monitors. The Syrian opposition had previously been weak, fragmented and clandestine after five decades of the regime arresting opposition figures or forcing them to flee the country. As the revolution gained momentum, new opposition forces and movements were created on the ground, most prominently the youth in the field who organised demonstrations, connected different locations together, and became active in the media. Opposition forces were formed inside and outside Syria and attempted to close ranks and unite their views. Two important opposition blocs were formed: the National Council overseas and the Coordination Committee inside Syria. The former included the Muslim Brotherhood, the Damascus Declaration Bloc that includes five parties, and independent figures. The latter included 15 Arab and Kurdish opposition parties, as well as independent figures. The opposition inside Syria insisted on a peaceful revolution and rejected foreign military intervention, while the opposition abroad indicated that military intervention is the only means to overthrow the regime. This caught the attention of the world community. Although it is not united, has not presented a clear alternative to the incumbent regime, and continues to work separately, the opposition is unanimous about the political goal of overthrowing the regime and its figureheads, as well as transforming Syria into a democratic, plural state with a rotation of power. The revolutionaries using peaceful means and supported by the major opposition camps (National Council and Coordination Committee) were unable to secure the overthrow the regime during the past 10 months. The regime remained in control of the military and security apparatus that together are estimated at one million troops, and which have each engaged in confronting protesters. Naturally, the Syrian army is not a homogenous entity. Paramilitary operations were launched by defectors from the army and security forces who refused to open fire on peaceful demonstrators. They formed the Free Syria Army (FSA) whose leaders claim to include 12,000 fighters on a defensive mission. A small number of civilians have joined the FSA to avenge the deaths of their loved ones. These irregular forces have carried out concise military operations targeting security and intelligence agencies and anyone who fires at protesters. The revolution meanwhile became influenced by regional and international developments. Arab and European countries withdrew their ambassadors from Syria as a form of pressure on the Syrian regime to end the violence. Damascus's response was to ignore attacks by pro-regime supporters against Arab, European and US embassies and diplomats. Meanwhile, Europe and Arab countries imposed economic and political sanctions against the Bashar Al-Assad regime and its leading figures. But none of these measures convinced the regime to change its methods. Meanwhile, the regime was very slow in responding to any initiative aimed at ending the internal conflict, including the proposal by the Arab League. The opposition has declared Homs and Deraa as destroyed cities and called on the world community to intervene to end the bloodbath. UN human rights groups assert that the Syrian regime has committed crimes against humanity, and revolutionaries have called on the Arab League and the UN to pressure the Syrian government to allow international relief agencies, human rights committees and the media entry, to help save the lives of Syrian citizens. Russia shielded the Syrian regime more than once by rejecting UN Security Council resolutions condemning the regime's crackdown on protests. While senior Syrian officials hope that Russia's support continues, the opposition believes Russia will change its position as a result of escalating violence. But even Moscow's political support could not prevent the Syrian regime from collapsing, especially in the face of economic pressures. In 10 months, the Syrian Lira has dropped 25 per cent in value and oil production has fallen by nearly 65 per cent. The Syrian people have started to suffer shortages of basic foods, fuel and other commodities. According to figures gathered by Syrian, Arab and international human rights monitors, 6,200 people have been killed so far, including 320 children and 210 women, while more than 180 have died under torture. Meanwhile, the number of detainees and the missing are in the tens of thousands, and refugees number more than 16,000, driven out to Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. For 10 months, the Syrian regime has used excessive violence and cruelty, refusing to understand or recognise the revolutionary movement. It has not proposed political solutions that meet the minimum aspirations of the peaceful civic movement. The opposition holds the regime responsible for the current dead end, where the country teeters on the edge of civil war. Syria is at a crossroads that leaves many diverging options open. No one knows where the country is heading and if the people will reap freedom and dignity in return for their sacrifices, or if the revolution will become militarised, if foreign intervention will follow, or a sectarian civil war breaks out. Many observers assert that foreign military intervention would equally destroy the regime and society, but with the killing ongoing, the same result looms on the horizon regardless.
