As the crisis in Syria becomes more and more internationalised, the opposition fears that the country may be on the way to chaos and civil war, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus In the nine months since the start of the Syrian uprising earlier this year, some 4,000 protesters have been killed, nearly 30,000 arrested, tens of thousands have become refugees and thousands are missing. Syria has become isolated on the Arab and international stage, and European, US and Arab sanctions have been imposed on the regime and its leaders. The country's economy has slowed dramatically, while there have been growing numbers of defectors from the army who have declared war on the regime's security and intelligence agencies. However, despite all these developments the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has continued to use force to thwart peaceful protests and resist calls for change. The regime has continued to use military force in attempts to reassert its control, and it has adopted a security solution to the crisis that has failed to bring about anything aside from the deaths or injury of thousands of people and ongoing damage to the Syrian economy and society. The demonstrations have escalated and protests have expanded to dozens of cities across the country. According to activists, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets on Friday at more than 250 locations, and the Syrian opposition abroad has called on the international community to intervene in the crisis to protect civilians and set up safety zones and humanitarian corridors. The opposition has called for the international community to send fact-finding missions to Syria, as well as human-rights monitors, calling on the Arab states in particular to act to end the regime's policy of destruction. However, thus far the Syrian regime has been unresponsive to such calls, and it is now isolated with extensive sanctions ranged against it. The EU issued a tenth round of sanctions last week, including an export ban on gas and oil production equipment and on bond issues by the Syrian government in an attempt to dry up funding for the regime. Turkey recently also decided to impose economic sanctions against Syria that would freeze trade relations between the two neighbouring countries, estimated to be worth $2.5 billion a year. Meanwhile, the US has issued sanctions against state and private institutions, as well as individuals close to the regime. US Vice President Joe Biden told the Syrian authorities some days ago to halt the use of "brutality" against the Syrian people, telling Al-Assad to step down from power and advance a peaceful handover. "The time has come for everyone in the world community to join efforts to isolate a regime that has categorically violated and continues to violate human rights and crackdowns on peaceful demonstrations," Biden said. US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feldman added that the way to save Syria from disintegrating into chaos and civil war was by "getting rid of Bashar and ending his methods now." The Arab world has also taken up a firm position and has decided to follow in the footsteps of Europe and the US. Arab foreign ministers announced sanctions against Syria at the beginning of the week, the first of their kind by the Arab League against one of its members. The sanctions include a freeze on all trade with the Syrian government and all bank accounts in Arab states, as well as a travel ban on Syrian officials to Arab countries, most prominently Al-Assad's brother Maher Al-Assad, chief of the notorious 4th military brigade. The Arab countries also decided to cut the number of flights to and from Syria from Arab countries by half, and Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait advised their nationals to leave the country. The Syrian regime has responded to the new western sanctions by suspending its membership of the Mediterranean Union, created in July 2008 as a result of a French initiative, and it has suspended the free-trade agreement with Turkey that grants Ankara reduced tariffs. However, according to the Syrian opposition these measures are a sign of weakness. Since the beginning, opposition spokesmen say, the Syrian regime has failed to deal with the political, economic and social crisis in the country, instead viewing the uprising as a domestic security problem and a foreign conspiracy. As a result, it has turned its back on a negotiated settlement that could resolve the crisis. "The biggest danger facing Syria would be for the revolution to subside and the regime to remain in power," said Khaldoun Al-Asswad, a spokesman for the Youth of the 17 April Movement for Democratic Change in Syria, in an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly. "This would threaten the existence of Syria itself. The regime has decided to stay in power even if Syria is destroyed or civil war breaks out," al-Asswad said. The official Syrian media has propagated the notion that civil war is imminent, using fears of armed militias being formed everywhere in the country to justify the regime's crackdown. It has also claimed that the only alternative to the Al-Assad regime is Islamist extremists, and Al-Assad himself has accused the US of trying to overthrow the regime in Damascus. "The regime has realised that the success of the revolution depends on its being peaceful," Ayman Abdel-Nour, a figure in the opposition, told the Weekly. "Therefore, it has drawn up a plan to kill a large number of peaceful protesters in order to incite others to take up arms to defend themselves. This would change the peaceful character of the Syrian revolution and transform it into an armed struggle or civil war. The regime would then have a better chance of survival than if the protests remained peaceful." Abdel-Nour, editor of the Kolona Shorakaa (We are all Partners) website that attracts more readers than all the Syrian press combined, said that "Al-Assad's plan is to kill the key leaders among the young revolutionaries and frighten the rest. He also aims to try to make the West believe that Christians will be killed by radical Islamists in Syria, these being able to come to power if the regime falls." "Al-Assad is planning a series of superficial reforms, and he intends to hold manipulated elections. Opposition political parties fabricated by the security apparatus and loyal to the regime will be formed to fight these elections, and parliamentary elections will be followed by rigged presidential elections confirming Al-Assad in power. The man is delusional, living in a fantasy world he has conjured up." The regime's rejection of an acceptable settlement has made the Syrian crisis a key international concern, with the UN Human Rights Council accusing the Syrian authorities of committing crimes against humanity and calling on the international community to take steps to protect civilians. A report by UN investigators has stated that crimes against humanity have been committed in Syria, and the US and some European countries have declared their intention to take the country to the UN Security Council. In these circumstances, further sanctions could pave the way to international intervention in Syria, notably through the creation of safe zones to protect civilians and UN peace monitors. For its part, the Syrian opposition supports many of the Arab and international steps, but rejects any form of military intervention in the country. It is concerned that the crackdown by the regime is making the crisis more and more of an international issue, raising the likelihood of foreign military intervention under the pretext of humanitarian protection. Were this to happen, opposition figures say, Syria would enter into a cycle of violence that it would be very difficult if not impossible to stop.
