With global warming increasing year by year, how will this affect the Nile Delta, asks Ahmed Mahmoud Our planet has been changing, with warming winds and rising seas, receding glaciers and global increases in temperature, all of which have already affected physical and biological systems in every part of the world. Examples of observed changes include the shrinkage of glaciers, the thawing of permafrost, the later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and lakes, the lengthening of mid- to high- latitude growing seasons, the pole ward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges, declines in some plants and animal populations, the earlier flowering of trees, and the emergence of insects and changes to egg-laying in birds. Six billion humans are being affected, too. Coastal towns are suffering from rising sea levels and storms are getting more intense. "The whole world has been busy with the issue of climate change and its implications, including the melting of large parts of the ice caps of the Earth's poles," Sayed Sharafeddin, professor of marine science at the University of Alexandria told Al-Ahram Weekly. "This leads to rising sea levels and what these imply for drowning currently dry areas, including cities that are centres of civilisation. All this is a huge disaster by any standards." Sharafeddin added that global changes do not occur suddenly or over the short term, but that nature works slowly and change can take place over generations. Thus, the endangered character of the Nile Delta in Egypt has long been recognised, with some experts arguing that urban settlements in the Delta may one day vanish under the sea. According to Taher Beshr, president of the Egyptian Society for Industry and the Environment, "scientists will disagree and their estimates will vary, but how will they explain where the shores of Alexandria have gone when they are no longer there?" Born and raised in Alexandria, Beshr grew up near the Sidi Bishr beach, where the sands once extended out some 250 metres under the sea. Now, however, this same coastline has been eroded, Beshr says. "There was an island we used to swim to, but it is not there anymore, and this is not to mention the disappearance under the waves of the tons of concrete blocks that were designed to protect the beaches." Beshr added that the Alexandria Corniche has been eroded by rising sea levels and that groundwater in the Corniche area has reached some 60 cm. This means that "villas in the Marina will be affected within 10 years by the waves," he says. However, Beshr believes that such problems are not confined to Egypt's Delta. He remembers how he started his career by manufacturing paper and importing the necessary wood pulp from Sweden and Finland. "We used to pay $15 for ice-breakers to get our cargo ships to the sea, but now there is no need to do so. Where has all the ice gone? Is it possible to say that the Delta will not be inundated given the changes that are occurring worldwide? I don't think so." Alexandria is one of the cities believed to be in danger of climate change, and it is the second- largest city in Egypt. It has the largest harbour in the country, and about 40 per cent of Egypt's industrial activities are based there. Its waterfront beach, extending over 63km and considered the principal seaside summer resort on the Mediterranean, is located along the northwestern border of the Nile Delta coast. The population of Alexandria exceeds four million, and more than one million summer visitors also enjoy the summer season in Alexandria every year. The city is built on a narrow coastal plain extending from Marakia in the west to Abu Qeer in the east and Lake Mariout to the south. Alexandria's coastal plain is composed of a series of shore-parallel carbonate ridges about 35m high, which are separated by depressions of shallow lagoons. Beach erosion, rip currents, pollution, and rising sea levels are the main problems affecting coastal management in Alexandria. In an interview with the Weekly, Sharafeddin referred to a study assessing the risks of inundation in various scenarios if no action is taken to halt climate change over the coastal strip of the waterfront. A multi-band LANDSAT TM image of the city taken in September 1995 was analysed in the study to identify and map land-use classes. A geographic information system was also built in an ARC/INFO environment, which included city district boundaries, topographic maps, land-use classes, population and the employment of each district and archaeological sites. Scenarios of 0.2, 0.5, and one millimetre annual rises in sea level over the next century were assumed, taking current land subsidence into consideration. Percentage population and land-use areas at risk for each scenario were identified and quantified. Analysis of the results indicated that if no action is taken an area representing the effect of a sea level rise of 0.5m will be lost in Alexandria, representing 45 per cent of the beaches, 13 per cent of the residential areas, 12 per cent of the industrial area, 30 per cent of the services, 21 per cent of tourism, and 14 per cent of the bare soil. At least 1.5 million people and their dependants will have to abandon their homes, 195,000 jobs will be lost, and an economic loss of over $35.0 billion is expected over the next century if such a scenario is played out. Most of the methods and models used to predict sea-level rise require comprehensive exogenous inputs and involve analysis along with certain assumptions. In spite of the study reported on above, Sharafeddin does not believe that the Nile Delta will drown over the next 50 years. "Many important ecologists believe that the Earth is on the verge of a new ice age, but there is no consensus among scientists," he adds, "and this is what makes many reluctant to rush into adopting certain views." He believes that scientists should take the necessary time to support research in various areas related to the terrestrial environment, in order to obtain sufficient data to paint a picture that depends on results coming in from different parts of the world. A scientific database on the weather and sea- level changes around Egypt over the past 50 years should be set up, which could then be used to help predict potential climate change and expected rises in sea level. Data has been collected on sea-level changes in various regions of the Mediterranean for over half a century, and this should be made available for analysis by scientists. In an e-mail interview, Farouk El-Baz, research professor and director of the Center for Remote Sensing at Boston University in the US, told the Weekly that the reason for the conflicting opinions about the effects on Egypt of climate change are due to the lack of access to first-hand data. "People talk in support of either side because none of them have done original research on the topic. Some speak of a one metre increase, and some of five metres, because this is the debate in the West, based on predictions from research." El-Baz added that no one has done the basic scientific research, including measurements. "If any such research exists, I think the results have not been published in international journals and are not known to scientists. Otherwise, they would have been quoted and used in scientific arguments."
