The forthcoming parliamentary elections will seal the fate of the old Egyptian political party system, but will they lead to the establishment of a new majority party, asks Salah Eissa* By all indications the forthcoming parliamentary polls, the first phase of which is due to begin this month, will be unique in the history of Egyptian elections since their beginning at the end of the 19th century. However, it is too early to predict whether the difference between these elections and those that have gone before them will be superficial or substantial and whether the polls will lead Egypt closer to democracy or further away from it. One feature of this year's elections is that they are the first in which there will be no overwhelmingly large mainstream or ruling party since 1923. There is no party in this year's elections equal to the Wafd that swept the elections held during the liberal age (1923-1952), the Nationalist Union and Socialist Union parties of the Nasserist and beginning of the Sadat eras (1956- 1975), the Egypt Party that prevailed under the remainder of the Sadat era (1976-1979), or the now dissolved National Democratic Party (NDP) that dominated political life under Mubarak (1981-2011). True, the Wafd sometimes boycotted the elections, as it did in 1930, 1938 and 1944, but even then it made its presence felt during the campaigns. It is equally true that the Nasserist period saw the adoption of a monolithic one-party system and that the Sadat and Mubarak periods introduced an element of pluralism. However, the fact remains that until this year there had always been a political party that represented the mainstream, whether this was real or simply manufactured. The dissolution of the NDP ended the central role the party had played for 33 years in forging and sustaining the one-party state in pluralistic guise since the formal return to political pluralism in 1976. From the perspective of this party and the Egypt Party that preceded it, it was the centre party that represented the majority of the Egyptian people, while all other parties or factions simply represented opposition minorities, whether to the right or left. Throughout this period, this outlook was supported by ballot rigging, thuggery, vote purchasing and other forms of electoral fraud. The results of this year's elections will undoubtedly seal the fate of the old political party system. Nevertheless, it is difficult to predict whether the polls will now yield a new mainstream party in the form of a majority party that can prevail over electoral rivals, or whether instead they will produce a parliament that consists of a set of smaller parties whose squabbling will prevent them from performing their parliamentary role effectively. If the latter is the case, it could cause Egyptians to lose faith in democracy once again as being the key to stability and progress. Another feature that sets this year's elections apart from their predecessors is the political climate. Perhaps the most important aspect of this is that a huge portion of the Egyptian populace will be taking part. This "silent majority," which always refrained from participating in previous elections, broke its silence in order to join the revolution and now it is politicised. It includes vast segments of the lower-middle class, the working class and the poor, and particularly of young people from these sectors of society. This hitherto silent majority of the potential Egyptian electorate made its presence felt among the 18 million voters who turned out for the 19 March referendum on the constitutional amendments, which is more than double the turnout (eight million) in the 2005 parliamentary elections, the first to be held under full judicial supervision. Now that voter registration requires only a national identity card, voter turnout in the forthcoming parliamentary elections could reach unprecedented figures, perhaps approaching the total number of potential voters, or 45 million people. On the other hand, if the turnout remains at its previous level or not significantly higher, this will have important implications for the pace and direction of democratic transformation in Egypt. In the nine months since the revolution in January, the number of political parties in Egypt has also nearly tripled, from 24 to 70. This flood of new parties is further evidence of a renewed enthusiasm for political involvement, stimulated by the revolution. It was facilitated by amendments to the political parties law, which, under Sadat and Mubarak, set up a thicket of restrictions to inhibit those wishing to create new political parties. Perhaps the foremost hurdle was that the committee in charge of licensing new parties was made up of government appointees who were members of the then ruling party. The committee was not an impartial body, to put it mildly. This obstacle has now been removed with the new requirement that the committee consist solely of members of the judiciary. Although most of the country's parties are now new, inexperienced, lacking trained organisers and campaigners, and short on grassroots appeal, they will nevertheless constitute a new phenomenon in the elections. The ways in which they interact with and inspire the formerly silent majority are certain to have a positive impact on democratisation in Egypt. At the same time, the rapid rise in the number of political parties has brought another phenomenon to the fore that marks these elections as unique: the proliferation of Islamist parties. In addition to the Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, several other new parties have been formed by former members of this movement who split off from it for organisational rather than for ideological reasons. Perhaps more remarkable are the new parties representing the Salafist movement, which, in the decades preceding the revolution, preached the "defiance of the ruler," shunned political involvement of any sort, and restricted its activities to proselytising and charity work. No less surprising has been the fact that radical groups such as the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya and the remnants of the Egyptian Jihad have also created political parties. The full spectrum of Political Islam will thus be out in force in the forthcoming elections, whether as candidates or as voters. Now that the Islamist parties have begun to feel their strength, both in numbers and in popularity, they feel that they no longer have to win the approval of liberal or secular trends. A particularly disturbing development is that they have abandoned their pre-revolutionary calls for a "civil state with an Islamic frame-of-reference" and now openly call for an Islamic theocracy on the grounds that a civil state is a form of heresy. Their influence will be reflected in the upcoming polls, and it will have a negative impact on the course of democratic development in Egypt in the event that they gain a majority in parliament, as many analysts expect. Some observers have predicted that in spite of the taint that clings to them from the former regime, remnants of the former NDP will have a major impact on the polls, primarily because the new parties formed by the revolutionary youth movements are still comparatively inexperienced. If so, the results of the elections may end up reproducing the type of dualism that characterised pre-revolutionary parliaments, with the difference that this time the Islamist forces will make up the overwhelming majority, while the NDP remnants will become a small opposition. While these considerations mean that the forthcoming elections will be unprecedented in Egyptian history, it is still too early to say whether they will be unique in qualitative terms. Much depends here on the degree to which they can shed the ills of previous elections, such as the prevalence of kinship, regional, religious and other such affiliations, and the influence of political financing. Whatever the case may be, they will surely be a step towards training Egyptians in the exercise of democracy. But will the results be a step forward for democracy, or will they be two steps back? * The writer is editor-in-chief of Al-Qahera weekly newspaper.
