Tomorrow's demonstrations in Cairo's Tahrir Square will show how extensivethe Islamists' grassroots support is, writes Amani Maged The mass demonstration for "stability and identity" that the Islamists have planned for tomorrow, Friday 29 July, raises many questions, not least of which is whether 10 million will respond to their call, as Salafi leaders claim. The organisers -- a coalition of Islamist groups including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafis and the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya -- have announced that the aim of the demonstration is to bring about the still-outstanding demands of the revolution: payment of compensation to the families of those who died in the revolution, handover of sufficient powers to the government to lead the remainder of the transitional phase, and immediate prosecution of chief figures from the former regime and of the deposed former president in particular. The Islamist groups have been campaigning to rally a high turnout at the protest for nearly two weeks. Abdel-Moneim El-Shahhat, an official spokesman for the Salafist Call group, said that preparations had begun 10 days ago and that work was proceeding rapidly. He was confident that five to 10 million people would join the demonstrations. The Salafis in particular are keen to produce a "peaceful" showing that will not turn into a sit-in. According to expert on the Islamist movements Ammar Ali Hassan, they want to deliver the message to the Egyptian society and the world that they are opposed to violence, can organise peacefully, and can rival the Muslim Brotherhood, which has a reputation for being the strongest and best-organised political force in Egypt. They certainly have an ambitious plan. Over recent days, they have been rallying support, ordering ranks and organising transport to bring participants from other governorates to Tahrir Square. For the day itself, they have been forming security teams, building platforms in the square, wiring up loudspeakers and readying ambulances for any emergencies. Analysts see these preparations as a significant turning point for the Islamist genie, released from its bottle following the 25 January Revolution. The Islamists' fortunes have vacillated considerably over the past half century, but mostly for the worse, though following the clampdown under president Gamal Abdel-Nasser, president Anwar El-Sadat encouraged them as a way of offsetting the leftists and Nasserists. However, after the Camp David Accords were signed with Israel, Sadat too turned against them. They had served their purpose and were now getting too strong for his liking. Large numbers were swept into prison. Over the past two decades, there has been a mounting phobia of the Islamists in Egypt, triggered by acts of violence perpetrated by the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya. These included attacks on tourists and prominent political and cultural figures, such as the assassination attempt on Nobel Prize laureate Naguib Mahfouz in the 1990s. Since then, this militant Islamist group has undertaken several ideological revisions and officially renounced violence, after which its leaders and prominent members were released. The most recent of these was Aboud El-Zomor, charged with the assassination of Sadat in 1981. It now appears that the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya is trying to reach and work with the public in new and completely different ways. Most remarkable of all, it has now declared its intention of engaging in the democratic process and has set in motion the process for transforming itself into a recognised political party. Many Salafis, too, have begun to move in the same direction, something which is perhaps more remarkable still since this trend of Islamist opinion has long shunned formal political involvement. Moreover, after long having regarded political activism as sinful, many members of the group are now on the front lines. The Muslim Brotherhood, by contrast, has maintained a high political profile for years. Many of its members ran as independents in parliamentary elections under the former regime, and since the revolution the organisation has formed its own political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party. Yet, while the Islamists may want to deliver a message of reassurance to the public on Friday, they may not convince everyone. Since the revolution, fear of the Islamists has gripped many Muslims more powerfully than it has the Copts, says Ammar Ali Hassan. Many Muslims are suspicious of Islamist designs on power, and since the March referendum on the constitutional amendments tensions have mounted between the Islamist and liberal camps in Egypt. Liberals have media outlets to support and promote them, and they can make their voices heard through conferences and other forums. However, they are concerned that the forthcoming elections will expose their political weakness at the level of grassroots support. As a result, according to Ali Abdel-Aal, a scholar at the Arab Studies Centre in Cairo, they have now launched an all-out propaganda offensive against the Islamists, whose grassroots influence was palpably demonstrated in the March referendum and will probably be yet more tangibly demonstrated tomorrow. While the Islamist trend in general may be short on media channels and figures in Egypt, it does have what the other political forces do not in the shape of significant popular support. As Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Meshaal put it following the Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006, "any fair and free democratic elections will bring a victory to the Islamist trend because it is a plant that is native to this part of the world." In Egypt at least that plant has been nurtured over the years by the effects of the social, healthcare and educational services that the Islamists have offered to the economically disadvantaged. As the former regime gradually abandoned its responsibilities towards the poor, the Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood in particular stepped in to fill the gap and developed extensive grassroots networks in the process. To the liberals, tomorrow's gathering of Islamists will be more of a baring of teeth or a flexing of popular muscle. In an attempt to allay liberal fears, the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party has entered into alliance with some 30 liberal and other Islamist parties. However, many liberals remain deeply sceptical. Many observers of the political scene believe not only that the Islamists have a right to participate in politics, but also that, if popularly elected, they should have a turn at government, since the liberals and the former ruling National Democratic Party have had theirs. In view of their popularity, their organisational abilities and the likelihood of an alliance between the various Islamist movements -- the Muslim Brotherhood, the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya, the Egyptian Jihad and the Salafis -- this may well happen. As some commentators have been saying, "the Islamists are coming," and the turnout of millions of them tomorrow will be another strong sign.
