The Palestinian leadership is calling for mass action to bolster its strategy for statehood at the United Nations, writes Graham Usher at the UN The Palestinians' strategy to be recognised as an independent state at the United Nations in September will be supported by thousands of their people demonstrating for freedom at home and in the region, lifted by the Arab Spring and modelled on the mass nonviolent protests by the Palestinians in their first Intifada in 1987. That at least is the vision sketched by Riyad Mansour, Palestine's top diplomat at the UN. He was speaking on 1 June to launch a new diplomatic strategy for his nation to achieve recognition and membership at the UN as a state "on the 1967 lines". "I need to mobilise the largest number of forces, whether on the ground or on the political front or in recognition, where I make it possible to prevail on our agenda in September," said Mansour. "This battle is not for a few diplomats and a few politicians. This is a battle of the entire Palestinian people." Mansour said 112 member states had already recognised Palestine as a state. The aim is to reach 130 or the two-thirds of UN General Assembly (UNGA) countries necessary to confer UN membership on a state. Given the built-in majorities for recognition Palestinians have from the Arab, African, Asian and Latin American blocs, few doubt that figure won't be reached. One Israeli official said Palestine could get 170 votes from UNGA's 192 member states. The Palestinians' problem is that UNGA cannot approve membership without a recommendation from the UN Security Council (UNSC), including the five permanent members. And the US has signalled it will veto any such resolution. "I strongly believe for the Palestinians to take the UN route ... is a mistake," said United States President Barack Obama last month. Israeli Premier Binyamin Netanyahu has also said any Palestinian move for recognition or UN membership in the Security Council was "bound to fail", suggesting he had secured a pledge from Washington to veto it. As for a symbolic recognition by the General Assembly, the UN "can vote the earth is flat if it likes," he shrugged. Mansour's hope is any American veto will wilt before the moral suasion of mass action. "If hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are in the streets for weeks before D-day in September... supported by millions of Arabs in the Arab capitals... what would be the argument of President Barack Obama in trying to disregard this wish?" The answer is none. But the US was no less isolated when it cast the only "no" vote against a UNSC resolution in February condemning settlements in the occupied territories. Obama made it clear America's defence of Israel at the UN is "rock solid". It won't crack in September. But America is nonetheless taking evasive action against the coming "train-wreck" in September, cognisant another veto in defence of Israel would do real harm to its regional standing. Nor is the action being taken by Washington alone. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has touted a new "peace proposal" to avert the need for Palestinians to go to the UN. Based on Obama's half-formed parameters for peace aired last month, it calls for negotiations on the 1967 lines around the formula of "two states for two peoples", a surreptitious way of getting Palestinians to recognise Israel as a Jewish state. Like Obama, France punts negotiations over Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees to another day. The proposal also calls for an end to all unilateralism, meaning for Israel a settlement freeze; and for Palestinians, deferral on any statehood bid at the UN. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has agreed to the proposal "in principle", despite angry opposition from Hamas and opposition Palestine Liberation Oranisation factions. Netanyahu so far is noncommittal, though few believe he would agree to negotiations based on the 1967 lines and a settlement freeze. Juppe has implied the proposal has the backing of the US and key European states. He has also said if it is rejected or if there is no meaningful peace process by September, France may recognise a Palestinian state. Britain has intimated the same. Will Abbas be tempted back to negotiations and away from the UN? Having enlisted the Palestinian people "in the battle for independence", will the Palestinian leadership dump them in favour of yet another peace process? In recent months Palestinians -- in the occupied territories and abroad -- have again become players in their own liberation, strengthened by the unity agreed between Fatah and Hamas and inspired by the cascading Arab protests abroad. The reawakening started last month on the Nakba anniversary, when thousands of unarmed Palestinians demanded freedom and the right of return on four different borders. It continued on the Naksa anniversary, when (according to Syrian sources) 20 Palestinian refugees and Syrians were killed by Israeli fire on the border between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights. The second wave of protests was smaller than the first but each was nonviolent. Both were seen as dress rehearsals for September. And all happened independently of the Palestinian leaderships, whether in Gaza or the West Bank. The 1948 exile and 1967 defeat are remembered every year by Palestinians but these protests were different, said Palestinian activist Mustafa Barghouti. "People are inspired by what happened in the Arab world. You see unity of action from Palestinians in the West Bank, in Gaza, in Jerusalem, in Lebanon, in Syria. One voice -- we demand our freedom". The Ramallah Palestinian leadership should be careful what it wishes for. Far from enlisting Palestinian protests to buttress a new diplomatic strategy at the UN it may have to use such diplomacy tactically to support a new Palestinian uprising at home. Throughout the Arab Spring leaders have had to bow to the people or be brushed aside. Palestine may be no exception. "The Palestinian people are not going to sit and watch the battle to end occupation," agreed Mansour. "They are more ready than some leaders."
