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Third time lucky
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 14 - 04 - 2011

Nigerians, exhibiting new political vitality, go to the poll that has been postponed three times this year, writes Gamal Nkrumah
Nigeria's future depends on far greater forces and complexities than unpolished Abuja politics. The two major parties are two sides of the same coin. Neither champions the rights of the underdog.
No less than 70 million Nigerians cast their vote. Resource- rich Nigeria, after all, is a nation of 160 million people. This magnificent magnitude, at a stroke makes all other African countries redundant -- or at least one should assume so. But no, a certain irregularity and impropriety bedevils Nigeria and robs it of its supranational status in Africa south of the Sahara.
Nigeria has one of the richest cultural heritages of the African continent and Africans are very much the richer for it. The country's capacity to provoke controversy and contention is only a mark of its stature.
Apart from the odd puritanical curmudgeon -- Christian or Muslim -- the people of this great country are congenial and freethinking. Most Nigerians are desperately poor, while Nigeria's politicians hope oil revenues keep rolling in and do nothing to reduce the country's utter dependence on oil.
Nigeria, by its very nature, is not an African Utopia. Neither is it a land where time stands still. The action sequences in Nigerian politics are convincingly adrenaline-soaked. However, Nigeria is no Conradian Congolese Hades. Pandemonium it may well be, but hellishly so, it is not.
Nigeria, with all its oil wealth, has hardly delivered on rising living standards. Successive governments -- democratically elected civilian rulers as much as military dictatorships -- have failed the Nigerian masses. Nigerian politics are played out in heart-grinding drama. Such contradictions have understandably led the Nigerian populace to question their own politicians' political arrangements.
Responsible, timely action to improve the living conditions of the Nigerian masses is imperative. Nigerians deserve better. The country suffered from a series of military dictatorships, and rampant corruption was the hallmark of civilian regimes.
Looking on the bright side, Nigerians are survivors. Ideally to avoid the repeat of that ugly scenario, Nigerian politicians should develop a viable democracy.
Nigeria is a hard nut to crack. There are no non-crisis possibilities as far as Nigerian politics are concerned. As a nation, Nigeria has become obsessed with change -- but in which direction? That is the most pertinent question of contemporary Nigeria. It has, however, not topped the agenda at the polling stations. Other more trivial issues, such as tribal and religious affiliation, prevailed.
As far as grappling with questions of democracy in Africa south of the Sahara, the struggle of 2010 for greater popular participation in the decision-making process is pretty thin gruel in comparison with what promises to happen in 2011.
Setbacks in the nascent democratisation process of several African countries call for a fresh approach. Several key African nations will witness presidential elections in 2011. Perhaps the most critical of these is the 9 April presidential ballot in Nigeria. Incumbent Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan is having some trouble controlling the ruling People's Democratic Party, with powerful northern Nigerian Muslim cliques objecting to the leadership of a southern Christian a la Côte d'Ivoire.
Indeed, religious rhetoric may cause more political troubles in Nigeria in 2011. This crisis of religious zealotry will emerge as a grave concern in several African nations including Nigeria.
The death of former Nigerian president Umaru Yar'Adua, a Muslim northerner, plus procrastination on dealing squarely with religious questions proved to be a setback for the Nigerian democratic process. Nigerian politicians must come out with a clear-sighted solution to this crisis. A sensible strategy for the coming years will stave off political unrest on religious grounds.
The religious crisis in Nigeria plus social and political unrest in the country's Niger Delta oil-producing region is sure to darken broader investment sentiment in resource-rich Nigeria.
Neighbouring Ghana will learn from the Nigerian experience. In 2010 Ghana became the latest oil-producing African nation with its offshore Jubilee Field. The Ghanaian government must learn how to distribute the oil revenue wisely if it is to avoid the pitfalls of other African oil-producing nations. Oil wealth must be used to accelerate economic and social development.
Nigeria will continue to be bedeviled by political infighting unless it seriously tackles pernicious corruption, tribalism and sectarian strife. To avoid prolonged periods of political paralysis, the Nigerian electorate must consider their choice of leader carefully. They must play with the veneer of choice available to them. And, the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from the oil rich albeit conflict-ridden Niger Delta region, is seeking to prove to the world that he deserves a second term.


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