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Consensus or contentious candidate?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 14 - 04 - 2011

Will Mustafa land the top job at the Arab League? Dina Ezzat seeks an answer
First it was supposed to be a third term for Amr Moussa, currently serving as secretary-general of the Arab League. Then the name of Moufid Shehab, former minister of legal and parliamentary affairs under the Mubarak regime, was floated. Shehab got short shrift from the public amid the 25 January revolutionary fervour. Now it is Mustafa , a former member of Egyptian parliament and deputy speaker of the Arab parliament, that is the frontrunner to be in the next chief of the pan-Arab organisation.
The ruling Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF) on Monday offered Egypt's nomination for the top diplomatic position. expressed gratitude for the nomination and promised hard work to secure the job, which has been traditionally reserved for an Egyptian candidate since the Arab League was established over 60 years ago, with exception of the 1980s when Egypt was subject to an Arab boycott over its peace deal with Israel. Keeping the record unbroken, explain Egyptian officials, is one reason why was nominated.
"The last thing anybody [in Egypt] wants now is for the job to be lost, not because we are firmly opposed to the concept of rotation of this job, but because nobody is willing for the loss of this post to be associated with regime change in Egypt," said one official.
is already contested in several quarters of the 25 Revolution Coalition as the wrong candidate. A statement issued Tuesday morning by the 6 April Movement criticised his nomination, given his previous membership of the National Democratic Party chaired by Mubarak. The statement also criticised the close association of with the Mubarak regime, including his years as a diplomatic advisor to the presidency.
"We cannot accept� [that] a figure who served the regime of corruption and failure� represent Egypt in the Arab League," the statement added. It called on the HCAF to consider another candidate.
Other 25 January Revolution factions criticised the nomination of whose membership in the 2005 parliament was marred by allegations of vote rigging. Officials acknowledge the concerns expressed by the 6 April Movement and other related movements, but they insist that has a good chance of securing the job.
"The man has good contacts, really good contacts, in many Arab capitals and he spent the past few weeks calling on all these contacts to express support for him, and many did," said a source at the prime minister's office. According to this and other informed sources, several Arab capitals expressed direct support for 's candidacy, while none of the other proposed names -- with the exception of Foreign Minister Nabil El-Arabi -- received direct support.
El-Arabi, a favourite nominee in the eyes of many in Cairo and across the Arab world, had asked to be excused from being nominated. "The man wants to serve as a good interim foreign minister and go back to his life as an international arbitrator. He declined the nomination," said an Egyptian diplomat.
The failure of the Essam Sharaf government to appoint Nabil Fahmi, Egypt's former ambassador to the US, as minister of state for foreign affairs -- upon the direct request of El-Arabi -- made it difficult for the foreign minister, who was assigned his position less than two months ago, to plan to change posts again by mid-May when the term of Moussa expires.
"Moussa is eager to go because he has a presidential campaign to run, and there is no way that he would spend an extra day, let alone an extra few months, at the Arab League," said a source close to Moussa. The few months that Moussa needs for his presidential campaign are the same few months that El-Arabi needs as interim foreign minister.
"Everybody is impressed with the job [El-Arabi] is doing; we get excellent remarks on him from almost every visiting foreign official. He also managed to strike a very positive note among the public. It does not make sense to ask him to stop now," said the source at the prime minister's office.
By the count of Egyptian officials, has already the support of 10 to 12 Arab capitals. He needs 16 out of the 22 Arab capitals of the Arab League. has announced that he can secure the required 16 votes.
But is already faced with opposition too, coming from Qatari nominee Abdel-Rahman Al-Attia. Qatar does not seem set to withdraw Al-Attia, at least for now, given that Doha views as lacking support in Egypt and the Arab world.
The choice of the next secretary-general should be finalised in the Arab summit that was delayed from late March to mid-May. If the summit, scheduled to be held in Baghdad, is delayed, as some diplomats expect, the choice could be made by a lower-level Arab League Council: foreign ministers or permanent representatives.
Alternatively, there appears no legal reason why Arab consensus over the nomination of wouldn't be enough.
Any candidate for the top job of the Arab League would wish to have a strong vote of confidence from the Arab summit. However, given the current state of political turmoil across the Arab world, might have to settle for a symbolic vote of confidence.
"You could call him a pragmatic man who would settle for any show of support for now and work to generate more vocal support in the years to come," said an Egyptian diplomat who served with during his years as assistant foreign minister for Arab affairs in the 1990s.
The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council has meanwhile called for the "cancellation" of the Arab summit that is scheduled to convene in Baghdad on 11 May.
While the GCC request is prompted by its anger over alleged incitement of the Shia population in Bahrain to call for political reforms of the Sunni ruling royal family, it might end up putting off the Arab summit indefinitely.


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