What will become of the Arab League? Dina Ezzat finds no answer "Libya is calling for liberty... Come on Arab League wake up," chanted hundreds of demonstrators as they approached the headquarters of the over the six-decade old Arab organisation on Tuesday afternoon. The demonstrators were saluted by a group of Arab League diplomats from the Arab League Council who were meeting to debate "developments in Libya" and at long last break the official Arab silence on the bloody attacks on unarmed civilian demonstrators there. On Monday, the Arab organisation had issued a statement that called for an end to the bloodshed in the North African state -- the third after Tunis and Egypt to seek an end to long-ruling undemocratic regimes. The communiqué was issued in the name of the Arab League Secretary- General and acknowledged the predictability of cross-Arab influences in the growing call for "reform". It qualified the reform demands as "legitimate". Issued after the Permanent Representative of Libya to the Arab League resigned to protest the bloodshed of demonstrators in Ben Ghazi, Tripoli and elsewhere, the communiqué "expressed concern on current developments" in Libya. Demonstrations in Libya, Western diplomats in the region assess, might continue from one to five more days but it is only a matter of time before the over four-decade old regime of Muammar Qaddafi collapses. "This is quite a reasonable assessment; I think we are talking about when rather than if," said an Arab diplomat. According to Arab diplomats who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, Libya is now in the limelight but the top question on the minds of Arab governments at this point is "Who is next?" Some suggest Algeria. Others argue Morocco. "It is only a matter of time but it won't be long, or let me say it won't be very long, before we see the re-write of Arab regimes in general," suggested another Arab diplomat. For now, however, the concern is not about a wide change of ruling regimes in the 22 member states of the Arab League but rather about the upcoming collective Arab commitments that seem very hard to meet in view of the current developments. Libya, despite all the recent developments, is the chair of the Arab summit. Libyan Leader Muammar Qaddafi -- now in hiding -- was supposed to pass the rotated presidency of the summit to the ailing but quasi-democratic Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in the Iraqi capital on 29 March. "The deal was that there will be a set of preparatory meetings for a summit at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League, a foreign ministers' meeting and finally a summit on 28 March, but a summit that we knew would be attended by very few Arab leaders on 29 March," said a diplomat at the Iraqi Foreign Ministry. Today, this diplomat says that it is not clearly exactly what would happen. "We are still going ahead with the preparations but we really don't know what will happen," he said. Arab League officials agree that uncertainty reigns. Libya earlier in the week announced that the Arab summit would be delayed. The Libyan declaration attributed the delay to "current developments in the Arab world". It did not, however, suggest an alternative date. The secretariat of the Arab League said it received no official notification from Libya calling for the delay. On Monday evening an Arab League diplomat said that there are consultations now between the secretariat on one hand and some of the member states on the other to decide the fate of the Arab summit. On Tuesday morning, an Egyptian diplomat said that "most likely the Arab summit will have to be delayed". According to the rules of the Arab League charter the delay of the summit requires a previous Arab summit resolution or the request of an Arab leader and the consent of the rest. "This is the theory, "suggested the Egyptian diplomat. He added, "In effect, also in theory the current chair of the Arab summit should be present to pass over the presidency to the 2011 chair. Do you expect Colonel Qaddfi to show up in Baghdad on 29 March," he added cynically. The Iraqi diplomat said that Baghdad would agree to a delay of the summit "if this is the collective wish of the Arab countries but would not call for it". The Iraqi government has gone out of its way to provide necessary logistics and security arrangements for the next summit. Baghdad was hoping that hosting an Arab summit would give renewed credibility to its claims to have restored law and order. Iraq will not call for the delay of the Arab summit for fear that it would "misperceived" as announcing lack of readiness to host the summit, the Iraqi source told the Weekly. Libya, now lacking a representative at the League, is in no position to deal with the situation. Nor is the secretariat of the Arab League authorised to announce the delay of or cancellation of the Arab summit. To add to the confusion, Egypt, the state which hosts the Arab League, is without a president. "I guess the issue will have to be taken up in the first week of March when Arab foreign ministers meet for their regular spring council," an Egyptian diplomat told the Weekly. The delay of the summit is something that Cairo sees quite favourably, as the next Arab summit must elect a successor for Arab League head Amr Moussa whose second five-year term ends on 15 May. Egypt, under former president Hosni Mubarak, had pressured Moussa to extend his mandate for lack of another suitable Egyptian candidate and for fear that if Moussa pulls out the next secretary general will not be Egyptian. "President Mubarak was working with the Saudi Monarch [Abdullah Ben Abdel-Aziz] to make a sort of a collective Arab nomination to convince Moussa to stay on," said the same Egyptian diplomat. "The objective was, yes, to keep the seat for Egypt but also to avoid an inter-Arab debate on the rules of the rotation," he added. This scenario is now history, to say the least. Mubarak is out of power. Moussa is openly saying that he would be running for president should he meet the necessary constitutional requirements. The 74-year-old Moussa is hopeful that he could win in fair and transparent presidential elections. However, if the amended constitution introduces an age restriction that the current secretary general of the Arab League fails to meet, he might not be eligible. "It is unlikely that an age limit will be introduced into the constitution," firmly says a source close to the constitution amendment drafting board. Meanwhile, an aide close to Moussa said that it is "most unlikely" that the current Arab League would accept an extension of his mission even if he was not to run for president. Egypt meanwhile proposed, withdrew and then re-proposed another candidate for the would-be-vacant seat of the secretary-general of the Arab organization: Moufid Shehab. Shehab is a former minister of parliamentary affairs closely associated with the drafting of unpopular constitutional arrangements under the rule of president Hosni Mubarak. "Shehab will not pass. [Egyptian] Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit is asking for the support of [his Saudi counterpart] Saud Al-Faissal," said a Gulf diplomat. He added that Shehab is a very difficult candidate to defend. "We are willing to let Egypt keep the seat of the secretary general for now but we are not going to approve a candidate that is rejected by the Egyptians," said a Mashreq diplomat. He added that some leading human rights figures in Egypt are already calling on Arab embassies to reject the nomination of Shehab. According to a well-informed Egyptian source, the nomination of Shehab might be shortly withdrawn by the command of the Supreme Military Council that is currently ruling the country. "The council is well aware that Shehab is not popular and that his nomination would anger public opinion in Egypt," the source said. Alternative names are now being considered. Nabil El-Arabi, a retired Egyptian diplomat and former judge of the International Court of Justice, is the most favoured candidate on a short list. In any case, the approval of a new secretary general requires the convocation of an Arab summit, so it is a catch-22. In a worst-case scenario, Arab League officials say, should 15 May come and there is neither a new secretary general nor a care-taker secretary general then the deputy secretary general, veteran Algerian diplomat Ahmed Ben Helli, could run the show while the Arab world comes to terms with its new realities.
